State-space ARIMA for supply-chain forecasting

ARIMA is seldom used in supply chains in practice. There are several reasons, not the least of which is the small sample size of available data, which restricts the usage of the model. Keeping in mind this restriction, we discuss in this paper a state-space ARIMA model with a single source of error and show how it can be efficiently used in the supply-chain context, especially in cases when only two seasonal cycles of data are available. We propose a new order selection algorithm for the model and compare its performance with the conventional ARIMA on real data. We show that the proposed model performs well in terms of both accuracy and computational time in comparison with other ARIMA implementations, which makes it efficient in the supply-chain context.     

Electroactive polymers containing 3-arylcarbazolyl units as hole transporting materials for OLEDs

Monomers and their polymers containing 3-arylcarbazolyl electrophores have been synthesized by the multi-step synthetic route. The materials were characterized by thermo-gravimetric analysis, differential scanning calorimetry and electron photoemission technique. The polymers represent materials of high thermal stability having initial thermal degradation temperatures in the range of 331–411 °C. The glass transition temperatures of the amorphous polymeric materials were in the rage of 148–175 °C. The electron photoemission spectra of thin layers of monomers showed ionization potentials in the range of 5.6–5.65 eV. Hole-transporting properties of the polymers were tested in the structures of organic light emitting diodes with Alq₃ as the green emitter. The device containing hole-transporting layers of polyether with 3-naphthylcarbazolyl groups exhibited the best overall performance with a maximum current efficiency of 3.3 cd/A and maximum brightness of about 1000 cd/m².     

Adaptive actuator failure compensation design for unknown chaotic multi‐input systems

In this paper, an adaptive control approach is designed for compensating the faults in the actuators of chaotic systems and maintaining the acceptable system stability. We propose a state‐feedback model reference adaptive control scheme for unknown chaotic multi‐input systems. Only the dimensions of the chaotic systems are required to be known. Based on Lyapunov stability theory, new adaptive control laws are synthesized to accommodate actuator failures and system nonlinearities. An illustrative example is studied. The simulation results show the effectiveness of the design method. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

In situ characterization of LiY(WO4)2 nanotubes for electrochemical energy storage

Here, LiY(WO₄)₂ nanotubes are prepared via a feasible electrospinning technique. This new anode material shows excellent electrochemical properties. The capacity loss of LiY(WO₄)₂ nanotubes is as low as 6.9% after 156 cycles, while bulk LiY(WO₄)₂ presents the capacity loss higher than 55.0%. Even after 600 long-life cycles, the capacity loss of the nanotubes is only 9%. It can be seen that the hollow structure with a rough surface and a porous morphology contributes to the improvement of electrochemical performance. Furthermore, online X-ray diffraction (XRD) method is firstly applied to understand the lithium ions insertion/extraction mechanism of LiY(WO₄)₂ nanotubes. It can be concluded that it is an asymmetrical two-phase reaction. A phase transformation from LiY(WO₄)₂ to Li₃Y(WO₄)₂ can be obviously seen from the in situ XRD during discharge process. While Li₂Y(WO₄)₂ appears as an intermediate phase with a reverse charge reaction. In addition, in situ XRD also demonstrates that LiY(WO₄)₂ nanotubes have surprised electrochemical reversibility. All the above results indicate that LiY(WO₄)₂ nanotubes can be expected to be anode candidate for rechargeable lithium ion batteries (LIBs).     

A Global Maximum Error Controller Based Nonlinearity Aware TPWL Method for Reducing Nonlinear Systems

Abstract

Model order reduction is a common practice to reduce large order systems so that their simulation and control become easy. Nonlinearity aware trajectory piecewise linear is a variation of trajectory piecewise linearization technique of order reduction that is used to reduce nonlinear systems. With this scheme, the reduced approximation of the system is generated by weighted sum of the linearized and reduced sub-models obtained at certain linearization points on the system trajectory. This scheme uses dynamically inspired weight assignment that makes the approximation nonlinearity aware. Just as weight assignment, the process of linearization points selection is also important for generating faithful approximations. This article uses a global maximum error controller based linearization points selection scheme according to which a state is chosen as a linearization point if the error between a current reduced model and the full order nonlinear system reaches a maximum value. A combination that not only selects linearization points based on an error controller but also assigns dynamic inspired weights is shown in this article. The proposed scheme generates approximations with higher accuracies. This is demonstrated by applying the proposed method to some benchmark nonlinear circuits including RC ladder network and inverter chain circuit and comparing the results with the conventional schemes.     

积分中值屈服准则解析厚板轧制椭圆速度场

为解决非线性Mises比塑性功率积分困难以及由此导致的轧制功率解析式难以获得的问题,本文通过建立并利用线性比塑性功率表达式对提出的椭圆速度场进行能量分析,得到了轧制力能参数的解析解.文中通过对变角度屈服函数求积分中值,构建了一个新的屈服准则,它是主应力分量的线性组合,在π平面上的轨迹是逼近Mises圆的等边非等角的十二边形,其基于Lode参数表达式的理论结果也与实验数据吻合较好.同时,根据厚板轧制时金属流动速度从入口到出口逐渐增大的特点,提出了水平速度分量满足椭圆方程的速度场,该速度场满足运动许可条件.通过相应的轧制能量分析,获得了基于线性屈服准则的内部变形功率以及基于应变矢量内积法上的摩擦功率与剪切功率.在此之上,通过泛函的极值变分导出了轧制力矩、轧制力以及应力状态系数的解析解,并与现场实测数据进行了对比,结果表明利用本文提出的屈服准则与速度场所建立的轧制力矩与轧制力模型与实测值吻合较好,其中轧制力误差小于5.3%,轧制力矩误差在6%左右.     

燃煤锅炉除尘专用滤料的开发

介绍机械制造厂燃煤锅炉的烟尘特点,分析滤料失效的原因,提出一套针对该工况的滤料解决方案。介绍针对复杂工况条件所选用的纤维种类以及复合面层原料成分配比的确定,最终选用针刺工艺加工并对该新产品的基本性能进行了测试分析。     

A case-deletion diagnostic for penalized calibration estimators and BLUP under linear mixed models in survey sampling

The penalized calibration technique in survey sampling combines usual calibration and soft calibration by introducing a penalty term. Certain relevant estimates in survey sampling can be considered as penalized calibration estimates obtained as particular cases from an optimization problem with a common basic structure. In this framework, a case deletion diagnostic is proposed for a class of penalized calibration estimators including both design-based and model-based estimators. The diagnostic compares finite population parameter estimates and can be calculated from quantities related to the full data set. The resulting diagnostic is a function of the residual and leverage, as other diagnostics in regression models, and of the calibration weight, a singular feature in survey sampling. Moreover, a particular case, which includes the basic unit level model for small area estimation, is considered. Both a real and an artificial example are included to illustrate the diagnostic proposed. The results obtained clearly show that the proposed diagnostic depends on the calibration and soft-calibration variables, on the penalization term, as well as on the parameter to estimate.     

A practical Equivalent Electrical Circuit model for Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cell (PEMFC) systems

An alternative Equivalent Electrical Circuit for Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cells is modelled in this study. Both I–V characteristics and H₂ consumptions corresponding to generated power under load and no-load conditions are investigated. For this purpose, H₂ consumptions and I–V characteristics of three different sized PEMFCs are tested. There is a very good harmony between the model results and measured values (relative error %0.7, %6.4 and %2.5 for FC-A, FC-B and FC-C respectively). In the proposed model current passes only on parallel resistance and not on serial resistance at no-load condition. Thus, a FC with higher parallel resistance should be preferred. Another key output of this study is that based on the proposed model, performance comparison of FCs can be performed with the parameters defined in this work. Proposals made in this study can easily be used for performance analysis of FCs under for both steady state and transient analysis.     

Gradient-based recursive parameter estimation for a periodically nonuniformly sampled-data Hammerstein–Wiener system based on the key-term separation

The identification of the Hammerstein–Wiener (H-W) systems based on the nonuniform input–output dataset remains a challenging problem. This article studies the identification problem of a periodically nonuniformly sampled-data H-W system. In addition, the product terms of the parameters in the H-W system are inevitable. In order to solve the problem, the key-term separation is applied and two algorithms are proposed. One is the key-term-based forgetting factor stochastic gradient (KT-FFSG) algorithm based on the gradient search. The other is the key-term-based hierarchical forgetting factor stochastic gradient (KT-HFFSG) algorithm. Compared with the KT-FFSG algorithm, the KT-HFFSG algorithm gives more accurate estimates. The simulation results indicate that the proposed algorithms are effective.