A probabilistic model for cleavage fracture with a length scale--parameter estimation and predictions of stationary crack experiments

This study presents a large experimental investigation in the transition temperature region on a modified A508 steel. Tests were carried out on single-edge-notch-bend specimens with three different crack depth over specimen width ratios to capture the strong constraint effect on fracture toughness. Three test temperatures were considered, covering a range of 85 °C. All specimens failed by cleavage fracture prior to ductile tearing. A recently proposed probabilistic model for the cumulative failure by cleavage was applied to the comprehensive sets of experimental data. This modified weakest link model incorporates a length scale, which together with a threshold stress reduce the scatter in predicted toughness distributions as well as introduces a fracture toughness threshold value. Model parameters were estimated by a robust procedure, which is crucial in applications of probabilistic models to real structures. The conformity between predicted and experimental toughness distributions, respectively, were notable at all the test temperatures.     

Robustness of classification rules that incorporate additional information

The discrimination problem for two normal populations with the same covariance matrix when additional information on the population is available is considered. A study of the robustness properties against training sample contamination of classification rules that incorporate this additional information is performed. These rules have received recently attention where their total misclassification probability (TMP) is proved to be lower than Fisher's linear discriminant rule. The results of a simulation study on the TMP which compares the behaviour of the new rules against Fisher's rule and some of its robustified versions under different types of contamination are presented. These results show that the rules that incorporate the additional information not only have lower TMP, but they also prevent against some types of contamination. In order to achieve prevention from all types of contamination a robustifed version of these rules is recommended.     

Integrating psychology and politics.

Comments on the article "A house divided? The psychology of red and blue America" by D. C. Seyle and M. L. Newman (see record 2006-11202-001). Seyle and Newman concluded that the red and blue metaphor is inaccurate and proposed a purple America strategy to better convey that the majority of people do not align themselves with political extremes. There is interdisciplinary agreement on this. Although not cited by Seyle and Newman, the findings by Professor Fiorina of Stanford University were reported by the APA Monitor on Psychology in its coverage of the 2005 APA State Leadership Conference (Murray Law, 2005). In contrast to their social psychological analysis, Seyle and Newman were incorrect in concluding that "[a]s psychologists, we are not in a position to change either the elements of the American political system that may spur this conflict or even the decisions made by pundits, politicians, and reporters about the terms they choose to use in political discussion" (p. 579). (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Uncertainty,belief, and probability1

We introduce a new probabilistic approach to dealing with uncertainty, based on the observation that probability theory does not require that every event be assigned a probability. For a nonmeasurable event (one to which we do not assign a probability), we can talk about only the inner measure and outer measure of the event. In addition to removing the requirement that every event be assigned a probability, our approach circumvents other criticisms of probability-based approaches to uncertainty. For example, the measure of belief in an event turns out to be represented by an interval (defined by the inner and outer measures), rather than by a single number. Further, this approach allows us to assign a belief (inner measure) to an event E without committing to a belief about its negation -E (since the inner measure of an event plus the inner measure of its negation is not necessarily one). Interestingly enough, inner measures induced by probability measures turn out to correspond in a precise sense to Dempster-Shafer belief functions. Hence, in addition to providing promising new conceptual tools for dealing with uncertainty, our approach shows that a key part of the important Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence is firmly rooted in classical probability theory. Cet article présente une nouvelle approche probabiliste en ce qui concerne le traitement de l'incertitude; celle-ci est basée sur l'observation que la théorie des probabilityés n'exige pas qu'une probabilityé soit assignée à chaque événement. Dans le cas d'un événement non mesurable (un événement pour lequel on n'assigne aucune probabilityé), nous ne pouvons discuter que de la mesure intérieure et de la mesure extérieure de l'évenément. En plus d'éliminer la nécessité d'assigner une probabilityéà l'événement, cette nouvelle approche apporte une réponse aux autres critiques des approches à l'incertitude basées sur des probabilityés. Par exemple, la mesure de croyance dans un événement est représentée par un intervalle (défini par la mesure intérieure et extérieure) plutǒt que par un nombre unique. De plus, cette approche nous permet d'assigner une croyance (mesure intérieure) à un événement E sans se compromettre vers une croyance à propos de sa négation -E (puisque la mesure intérieure d'un événement et la mesure intérieure de sa négation ne sont pas nécessairement une seule et unique mesure). II est intéressant de noter que les mesures intérieures qui résultent des mesures de probabilityé correspondent d'une manière précise aux fonctions de croyance de Dempster-Shafer. En plus de constituer un nouvel outil conceptuel prometteur dans le traitement de l'incertitude, cette approche démontre qu'une partie importante de la théorie de l'évidence de Dempster-Shafer est fermement ancrée dans la theorie classique des probabilityés.     

评定飞航导弹单发命中概率的方法研究

通过对抽样检验方法的研究,确立了区间估计的下限公式,用来在已知样本值的情况下确定导弹单发命中概率出现在该区间内的置信水平和精确度。     

Impact of dams on point bar habitat: a case for the extirpation of the Sacramento Valley Tiger Beetle,C. hirticollis abrupta

Quantitative analyses of flow and stage data, remote sensing and geographic information systems analysis, and field studies were used to assess the impact of dams and diversions on the point bar habitat of the Sacramento Valley Tiger Beetle (Cicindela hirticollis abrupta). The reaches of interest include sites of known historic populations of C. h. abrupta along the Sacramento River from approximately 8 km north of Colusa southward to the confluence with the Feather River and along the Feather River between Yuba City and its confluence with the Sacramento River. The results from this study show that construction of two major dams has altered flows such that prolonged and increased flows during summer, fall, and early winter have most likely disrupted life cycles, flooded larvae, drowned overwintering adults and led to high mortality. Additionally, habitat availability has decreased over time because point bars have decreased in number and area causing increased distances between populations and isolation of populations. Moreover, point bar armouring, channel scouring, altered flows, redirected flows through weirs, and lithologic controls have produced a bimodal distribution of mean grain sizes in the Sacramento River in which the more northern bars contain gravel deposits and more southern bars possess fine sands. These conditions negatively alter moisture retention and sediment compaction and, consequently, burrowing conditions needed by this tiger beetle. Additionally, more stabilized flows (reduced variability) and increased fine‐grained deposition have enabled development and encroachment of vegetation onto the sand bars. Finally, human stresses, such as foot traffic and vehicular traffic may have interfered with burrowing, ovipositing, and foraging. The combination of these stress factors has most likely led to a reduction in source populations and, ultimately, the apparent extirpation of the entire metapopulation. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Task versus relationship conflict, team performance, and team member satisfaction: A meta-analysis.

This study provides a meta-analysis of research on the associations between relationship conflict, task conflict, team performance, and team member satisfaction. Consistent with past theorizing, results revealed strong and negative correlations between relationship conflict, team performance, and team member satisfaction. In contrast to what has been suggested in both academic research and introductory textbooks, however, results also revealed strong and negative (instead of the predicted positive) correlations between task conflict, team performance, and team member satisfaction. As predicted, conflict had stronger negative relations with team performance in highly complex (decision making, project, mixed) than in less complex (production) tasks. Finally, task conflict was less negatively related to team performance when task conflict and relationship conflict were weakly, rather than strongly, correlated. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Family-Responsive Interventions, Perceived Organizational and Supervisor Support, Work-Family Conflict, and Psychological Strain.

This study examined organizational family-responsive policies, perceptions of the organization as family supportive, and supervisor support as issues that may be salient to the experience of conflict between paid employment (work) and family roles. Data were collected from 355 managerial personnel in New Zealand. Although work-family conflict and psychological strain were strongly linked, the availability of organizational policies had no significant association with levels of conflict or strain, whereas policy usage was related only to work-to-family interference and not to family-to-work interference. On the other hand, perceptions of the organization as family supportive and supervisor support for work-family balance displayed significant relationships with key variables, highlighting the importance of these variables for interventions designed to ameliorate the negative impact of work-family conflict on managerial well-being. Implications for the effective implementation of family-responsive interventions are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Conflict structure moderates associations between cardiovascular reactivity and negative marital interaction.

This study examined the role of marital conflict structure--who desires and requests change versus who responds to the change request--in spouses' cardiovascular responses to marital interactions. Forty-one couples discussed 2 marital topics: one in which the wife desired change in the husband, and one in which the husband desired change in the wife. Cardiovascular responses were assessed at 2-min intervals. Results indicated that marital conflict structure moderates cardiovascular reactivity during negative marital interactions: Husbands and wives whose interactions were characterized by high levels of negative behavior showed the most pronounced diastolic blood pressure reactivity, but only when they were in the role of desiring change in their spouses. Implications for gender differences in marital conflict physiology are considered. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Political orientation and modern versus aversive racism: Tests of Dovidio and Gaertner's (1998) integrated model.

According to J. F. Dovidio and S. L. Gaertner's (1998) integrated model of racism, politically liberal European Americans tend to express racism differently than conservative European Americans, with liberals demonstrating aversive racism and conservatives, symbolic or modern racism. In support of the model, in Experiment 1 liberals showed bias in favor of a twice-prosecuted African American relative to a European American in their judgment of double jeopardy, whereas conservatives did the reverse. Experiment 2 replicated these effects while eliminating a confound in the design of Experiment 1. Experiment 3 found evidence for the intrapsychic conflict hypothesized to underlie aversive racism. Specifically, only liberals displayed greater physiological arousal to the touch of an African American versus a European American experimenter. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)