Data mining of resilience indicators

In recent years, the Asia-Pacific region has experienced several financial setbacks, including speculative attacks in 1998 and the SARS outbreak in 2003. Financial stresses of this nature are unanticipated, and not all of the dangers can be predicted by the examination of market information and macroeconomic indicators. The Early Warning System (EWS) that has been adopted by the International Monetary Fund may not be able to predict future financial crises for all possible scenarios, because shocks come in many different forms. To supplement the EWS, this paper proposes a data mining framework to measure the resilience of an economy. The resilience framework does not predict a crisis, but rather assesses the current state of health of an economy and its ability to withstand a financial shock should one occur. The framework is based on a feedback system consisting of two stages. The first stage assigns a resilience score to each economy based on a fuzzy logic scoring scheme that is built on the ambiguous reasoning of experts. The second stage uses the classification tree approach to estimate thresholds for each economic indicator, and examines the quality of the fuzzy score. The result from the second stage is then passed back to the first stage as feedback. The final result is obtained when the feedback system reaches its equilibrium state. The proposed resilience framework is applied to the external-sector and the public-sector economies of several countries to illustrate its applicability.     

Line balancing in a just-in-time production environment: balancing multiple U-lines

The introduction of multiple, independent production lines has helped many firms to increase their production flexibility, provide for redundancy when equipment breaks down, reduce idle time and labor costs, and achieve many other benefits. This paper introduces and formalizes the multiple U-line balancing problem. Optimal solution methodologies are provided for Type I (minimize the number of stations for a given cycle time), Type II (minimize the cycle time for a given number of stations), and cost-minimization line-balancing problems. A branch-and-bound algorithm is also developed for the situation in which equipment requirements are dependent on the line configuration and the task assignment to stations. Computational results indicate that the greatest benefit of exploiting multiple lines occurs for smaller cycle-time problems that require higher output.     

Energy efficiency, carbon emissions and economic development in Venezuela

Venezuela's vast natural resource base has largely shaped the nation's economic and energy-use patterns. Major opportunities exist for improving the efficiency of energy use in Venezuela and, consequently, restraining the growth of energy-related carbon emissions. This paper presents a detailed report of one potential development path for Venezuela and estimates the ensuing levels of energy demand and CO₂ emissions associated with pursuing this path through the year 2025. The results indicate that by adopting a development strategy that incorporates structural changes in the economy, fuel-switching measures and improved end-use efficiencies, Venezuela can introduce energy efficiency and carbon restraints as part of its economic development process.     

箱包风格设计及其发展趋势(Ⅰ)

本文主要讨论现代箱包设计的风格定位及其流行趋势。     

Photoresponsive peptide and polypeptide systems: part II. Photochromism of poly(l-ornithine) containing various azo-contents in side chains

Poly(L-ornithine)s having various azo-contents in the side chains were synthesized by the water-soluble carbodiimide procedure. The photochemical properties of the polypeptides poly[N^δ-p-(phenylazo)benzoyl-L-ornithine] (PPABLO) containing 3–77 mol% azobenzene were investigated by absorption and circular dichroism spectroscopy in hexafluoro-2-propanol (HFIP) or water, and in HFIP-water or methanol-water solvent mixtures. The photochromism of the dichroic bands of the PPABLOs containing 20–77 mol% azobenzene in the visible and ultraviolet wavelength regions was found to be mostly reversible as a function of irradiation time at different wavelengths due to the photostationary state (above 80% trans-cis photoisomerization) of the azo aromatic moieties. The PPABLO containing 3.2 mol% azobenzene in water exhibited conformational changes from random coil to helix by the addition of methanol or sodium dodecyl sulphate (SDS). The photo-induced conformational change was observed in HFIP-water-SDS solvent mixtures, while no conformational change was seen in water and HFIP-water solvent mixtures.     

Work-oriented development of knowledge-based systems: a case for multiple perspectives

System development is strongly influenced by the perspectives used by system developers. Current development methods for knowledge-based systems are based on an information processing perspectives of experts and users which has been criticized by a number of researchers. The paper argues that work-oriented development of knowledge-based systems requires the parallel use of multiple perspectives (including the information processing perspective), and that the use of any single perspective is potentially dangerous. As an example of the importance of using multiple perspectives, thepaper presents the situated action perspective, and shows how it complements the information processing perspective.     

Volatile organo-halogen trace analysis in beverages by thin-layer headspace enrichment and electron-capture gas-chromatography

Applicability of thin-layer headspace (TLHS) procedure giving an aqueous concentrate and also classical purge and trap (PT) in off-line mode to isolate and enrich volatile organohalogen compounds in common beverages was tested. Both enrichment tech-niques were used in combination with gas chromatography – electron capture detection (GC-ECD). TLHS, combined with direct aqueous injection (DAI)-GC-ECD, proved applicable in the determination of volatile organohalogen compounds in all studied beverages, while the PT in a version with no preliminary sample pre-treatment was of limited applicability. Detection limits of the TLHS-based procedure were in the order of 1 ppt. Content of volatile organohalogen compounds in a number of beverages available on the Polish market including mineral waters, beers, juices, carbonated and non-carbonated soft drinks, etc. was determined by means of TLHS-DAI-GC-ECD.     

Finite Element Analysis of a Moving Boundary Value Problem

A finite element formulation and the solution of a set of nonlinear coupled heat and mass transfer equations for a two-phase system with a moving evaporation interface is presented. The interface condition takes into account the moisture transfer balance at the moving boundary. The finite element results were compared with existing results for a single phase system for model validation. In the two-phase system, the movement of evaporation front has an appreciable effect on the temperature and moisture distribution inside the porous medium during drying. The effect of the nondimensional heat of vapourization parameter γ on the evaporation front, temperature and moisture distribution in porous medium was studied. The higher the value of γ, the slower is the movement of the evaporation front. The temperature decreased and the moisture content increased as the nondimensional vapourization parameter γ increased. This model has potential applications in studying the heat and mass transfer characteristics in food and biomaterials.     

Novel miniature integrated optical goniometers

A new principle and arrangement for directly determining the angle of incidence of an optical beam on an object are proposed and demonstrated. The novelty of the approach lies in the realization of a ‘smart object’, which extracts a portion of the incident beam's power into an optical waveguide attached to the object's surface or embedded in its body for converting the angle of incidence into the position of a guided beam with finite lateral extent. This ‘integrated optical light pointer’ beam is accomplished by means of creating additional degrees of freedom on the target in two different ways. While a first type is based on introducing spatial variations of the waveguide thickness, a second type makes use of a chirp of the grating periodicity. The feasibility for practical applications has been experimentally demonstrated by a direct comparison with a commercial high-resolution encoder, resulting in an r.m.s. error of <30′'. Measurements have been performed for chips fabricated based on replicated polycarbonate substrates and with no external optics, showing the great potential of this approach for realizing low-cost yet high-performance miniature goniometers.