Inventory management under financial distress: an empirical analysis

This study analyses inventory reductions as a means of short-term financing of firms under financial distress. We use quarterly panel data of U.S. manufacturing firms for the period from 1995 to 2007. We identify a sample of 198 distressed firms for which we analyse changes in relative inventory. Approximately 70% of distressed firms reduce their inventories until the end of their individual distress periods. This decrease corresponds to a mean reduction of 18.7 inventory days or 9.4%. Additional regression analyses show that differences in inventory adjustments depend on pre-distress inventory performance, firm size, and turnaround strategy. We also compile a sample of 142 firms that defaulted to analyse inventory actions of unsuccessful turnarounds. Our findings indicate that defaulting firms also reduce their inventories but that the reductions are lower than those of firms that resolve their financial distress. We conclude that distressed firms use short-term inventory adjustments to free up cash and to achieve long-term efficiency gains from inventory optimisation. Our findings suggest that inventory optimisation is an essential part of a complete and successful turnaround strategy and financially distressed firms should always consider this action as a means to prevent bankruptcy.     

Community Choices and Housing Demands: A Spatial Analysis of the Southern Appalachian Highlands

This paper examines housing demand using an integrated approach that combines residential decisions about choices of community in the Southern Appalachian region with the application of a Geographical Information System (GIS). The empirical model infers a distinctive heterogeneity in the characteristics of community choices. The results also indicate that socio-economic motives strongly affect urban housing demands while environmental amenities affect those of rural housing demand.     

Analysis of traffic hazard intensity: A spatial epidemiology case study of urban pedestrians

Traffic safety studies have underscored the hazardous conditions of pedestrians in the United States. This situation calls for increased public awareness of the pedestrian safety issue and better knowledge of the main factors contributing to traffic hazard for urban pedestrians. The purpose of this spatial epidemiology research is to gain greater insights into the geographic dimension exhibited by the intensity of traffic collisions involving urban pedestrians. Pedestrian crashes are studied in Buffalo, NY for years 2003 and 2004. Factors of hazard intensity are determined and compared for three age cohorts as well as for collisions occurring at intersections versus mid-block locations. Physical road characteristics and density of development, as well as socio-economic and demographic variables and potential trip attractors are examined. Spatial regression models are used to account for spatial dependencies. Econometric analysis underscores that all classes of environmental factors tested are significant drivers of pedestrian traffic hazard intensity. Results of the geographic analysis indicate that young and adult pedestrian traffic hazard intensities follow rather distinct logics. In addition, intersection and mid-block crashes differ by their socio-economic correlates, as well as their spatial distribution in the urban fabric.     

基于BP网的关联分析方法

神经网络是由大量简单处理单元互连构成的,模拟生物神经系统的自适应、非线性动态系统,具有很好的学习能力和泛化能力,但神经网络是一个"黑匣子",模型结果难以解释,本文应用微积分学求出了模型输出对输入的偏导数,说明了这种偏导数的经济意义,从而解决了神经网络模型的经济解释问题.最后给出的实例说明了这种方法的实际可行性.     

基于计量经济学综合分析法的电力设备全寿命周期成本管理

以全寿命周期成本管理理论为指导,建立了一套电力设备全寿命周期成本、效益优化模型。提出基于计量经济分析法的一次投资费用模型;考虑节能减排和环境保护,建立环境成本模型;并以设备的可靠性为效能指标,建立基于相对价值分析的费效优化模型.以某变电站220kV变压器的选型决策为案例,验证所建立模型的有效性,结果说明此方法改善了传统费用估算方式,提高了估算的效率和精度,可将其作为电力企业全寿命周期成本管理评估、分析、决策的精益化模型.     

降低CO_2排放的中国能源发展路径分析

低碳经济发展越来越多地受到世界各国的广泛关注。环境、气候变化问题,已经成为整个人类面临的最严峻挑战。本文通过分析中国CO2排放的基本状况,并运用计量经济模型,对中国能源消费的环境效应影响、中国能源消费产生的CO 2的影响因素进行定量化分析,探讨了中国能源行业高耗能、外部不经济的主要因素。最后,提出了适合中国可行的降低CO 2排放的能源发展路径。     

A Study of Methods of Telecommunication Tariff Decision

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基于系统动力学与计量经济模型的城市饱和负荷综合预测方法

城市饱和经济及饱和负荷的预测对城市经济发展和电网规划的协调具有重要的意义。将系统动力学及计量经济分析方法进行综合,建立了城市饱和电力负荷预测模型。以北京市为例进行算例分析,通过分析得到北京市经济发展同电力消费存在长期的协整关系,北京市经济约在2036年达到饱和状态,由于经济的发展对电力影响的滞后性,负荷约在2038年才达到饱和状态。     

专利产出与区域经济增长的动态关联机制分析

运用动态计量经济学的分布滞后模型、单位根检验模型、协整分析模型和Granger因果检验模型,以及专利产出与经济增长数据,对首都区域专利产出与经济增长关联机制进行了动态计量经济实证分析.结果显示:首都地区专利产出与经济增长当前及之后具有两期的关联性,平均来讲,专利产出每增加1%,首都区域经济当年将增长0.4923%,专利产出在3年内共使得经济增长了0.9847%;专利产出增长与GDP增长存在长期稳定的动态均衡关系,但是其对首都地区经济增长促进作用还不够;专利产出是经济增长Granger意义上的原因,但专利产出没有有效地促进首都区域经济增长,二者之间没有形成一种协调互动的反馈机制.     

Urban growth,transportation and the spatial dimension of the labour market: A note

Recently, Duranton and Turner estimated the impact of interstate highways on the average growth of US cities between 1983 and 2003. By estimating a structural model, one of their striking points is that increasing a city's initial stock of highways by 10 per cent leads to a 1.5 per cent positive respond of the city's employment over the sample period. This note mainly argues that their investigation leaves out potential spillovers of labour input from neighbouring growth centres/cities in the steady‐state directly implied by the open city assumption. More specifically, this contribution readily extends Duranton and Turner's work by a general equilibrium effect induced by the urban system's labour market fluctuations which is a direct consequence of the open city assumption.