钢铁企业价格预测决策模型体系研究

通过对钢铁企业现行价格管理体系的分析 ,建立了钢铁企业价格预测决策模型体系。充分利用大量的定性、定量信息 ,并把趋势预测和因果预测技术相结合 ,采用组合预测模型对价格进行预测 ,最后对预测出来的多方案进行模糊综合评价 ,给出推荐方案顺序。实际应用表明 ,模型体系是有效的。     

Hydrocarbon exploration risk evaluation through uncertainty and sensitivity analyses techniques

The evaluation of the exploration risk in the oil industry is a fundamental component of the decision process related to the exploratory phase. In this paper the two basic components of the exploratory risk: trap geometry and trapped hydrocarbon quantities (fluid), are compounded in a single coherent uncertainty and sensitivity approach. The results clarify that the model geometry influences each Petroleum System Modeling step and that the geometric uncertainty is correlated with the fluid uncertainty. The geometric uncertainty evaluation makes use of geostatistical techniques that produce a number of possible realizations of the trap geometry, all compatible with available data. The evaluation of the fluid uncertainty, through a Monte Carlo methodology, allows us to compute the possible quantities of oil and gas, generated in a basin and migrated from the hydrocarbon source location to each single trap. The final result is the probability distribution of oil and gas for each trap in the basin, together with other useful indicators like: the hydrocarbon filling probability map, the closure probability map, the drainage area probability map, the spilling paths probabilities, the trap-filling scenarios.     

连续蒸煮器内洗涤结合器外扩散洗涤的应用

连续蒸煮器内洗涤结合器外扩散洗涤，具有洗涤时间长、洗涤效率高、提取黑液浓度高、浆层厚度均匀、浆层结构组织和浓度一致等特点，运行可靠，易于自动化控制，实现了洗涤用水的封闭循环。     

利津地区深层沙三、沙四段油藏测试评价

利用测试资料，将利津地区深层沙三、沙四段油藏分为5种油藏类型：①高压、低-极低渗、导数曲线后期上翘、地层存在非均质性的油藏；②高压、低渗、无污染、双孔介质的油藏；③高压、低-中渗、无-轻微污染的复合油藏；④常-高压、低渗、有污染的油藏；⑤常-高压、极低渗、无污染、干层的油藏。最后对利津地区深层沙三、沙四段各种类型油藏进行了评价，认为利津地区深层沙三、沙四段自然产能较低，一般需要进行改造措施来提高渗透性，提高产能。     

Energy indicators for tracking sustainability in developing countries

Due to the fact that human activities and most sustainability issues are closely related to energy use, the energy system is a sound framework for providing lead indicators for sustainable development. Common energy-economic models enable the estimation of future states of the energy system. An energy system-based lead indicator set can be used to develop consistent and coherent future indicator estimates and to track sustainability, a clear advantage over existing sets.     

汽车空调冷凝器腐蚀试验的表征与评价

介绍了汽车空调冷凝器的腐蚀试验程度及方法，对试验后的冷凝器进行了密封性检查，并用光学显微镜和扫描电镜检测和分析了材料的显微结构，焊接质量，腐蚀性质及其腐蚀深度等。通过对冷凝器的宏微观检查与表征，评价了冷凝器质量的优劣，提出了改进措施与建议。     

100 mm一等量块自动测量仪测量不确定度评定

分析了100mm一等量块自动测量仪的误差来源，确定了测量量块的合成标准不确定度和扩展不确定度。     

Internal-corrosion inhibitors for pipelines carrying deaerated heating water

The effect of internal-corrosion inhibitors on heating-system pipelines is investigated. Tests were conducted on a testing device for polarization measurements under conditions corresponding to the Rostov Heat-Supply System. The concentration of OEDP-zinc, which provides a high degree of protection from general corrosion, is determined. The reagent has been successfully incorporated into the Rostov No. 2 TPP. __________ Translated from élektricheskie Stantsii, No. 7, July 2007, pp. 37–43.     

输气干线单个分输站站址最优化研究

输气干线分输站站址规划设计合理与否，直接影响到分输站至各城市门站之间输气管线总投资和未来管网系统的发展。为此,着重讨论并建立了以分输站站址、各城市门站与分输站之间管道直径、壁厚、分输站压力为设计变量，以各城市门站与分输站之间管道投资最小为目标函数的分输站站址优化数学模型。根据模型特点，采用混合离散变量复合形法与数据库技术相结合来求解分输站站址。以此站址为参考点，结合现场勘察，在参考点附近沿输气干线预选多个分输站站址，并对影响分输站建设和管理的环境因素用多目标模糊评价方法进行综合评价，以评价效果好的站址为最优分输站站址。用算例说明了分输站站址优化结果不仅与工艺参数变化有关，且与分输站所处环境因素有关。提出还应深入研究输气干线中具有多个分输站的站址优化问题。