OPEC's production under fluctuating oil prices: further test of the target revenue theory

Oil production cutbacks in recent years by OPEC members to stabilize price and to increase revenues warrant further empirical verification of the target revenue theory (TRT). We estimate a modified version of Griffin (1985) target revenue model using data from 1973 to 2000. The sample period, unlike previous investigations, includes phases of both price increase (1970s) and price decrease (1980s–1990s), thus providing a better framework for examining production behavior. The results, like the earlier study, are not supportive of the strict version of the TRT, however, evidence (negative and significant elasticity of supply) of the partial version are substantiated. Further empirical estimates do not support the competitive pricing model, hypothesizing a positive elasticity of supply. OPEC's loss of market share and the drop in the share of oil-based energy should signal an adjustment in pricing and production strategies.     

The economic impacts of a submarine HVDC interconnection between Norway and Great Britain

In the present paper we analyze the profitability of different HVDC interconnection alternatives between Norway and Great Britain for present and future scenarios. The analysis is done from a merchant and a social welfare perspective. The analyses include interconnections between Norway and Scotland and Southern Great Britain, respectively, as well as an alternative link to a future offshore wind farm. From a social welfare perspective the northern interconnection alternative is profitable under all sets of assumptions. The southern alternative is profitable under present conditions, but less than the northern alternative. The alternative link to the offshore wind park is not profitable, but this result is highly dependent on market conditions. From a merchant perspective none of the alternatives is profitable, clearly illustrating that leaving investments to commercial parties does not realize all projects that increase social welfare.     

Self-Conditional Probabilities and Probabilistic Interpretations of Belief Functions

We present an interpretation of belief functions within a pure probabilistic framework, namely as normalized self-conditional expected probabilities, and study their mathematical properties. Interpretations of belief functions appeal to partial knowledge. The self-conditional interpretation does this within the traditional probabilistic framework by considering surplus belief in an event emerging from a future observation, conditional on the event occurring. Dempster's original interpretation, in contrast, involves partial knowledge of a belief state. The modal interpretation, currently gaining popularity, models the probability of a proposition being believed (or proved, or known). The versatility of the belief function formalism is demonstrated by the fact that it accommodates very different intuitions.     

铝电解电容器预期寿命的研究

铝电解电容器是“有限寿命”的元件,其预期寿命常用Arrhenius模型和Eyring模型来估算。笔者应用电子计算机对寿命实验数据进行数理统计和曲线拟合来快速估算产品寿命,与实际试验结果有较好的吻合。提出改善和提高产品寿命,采取增大产品体积、降低施加电压和降低使用环境温度等措施是有益的。     

考虑有限理性的电力系统连锁故障多阶段动态博弈防御模型

为了防御由连锁故障引发的大停电事故,提出一种考虑参与人有限理性的连锁故障多阶段动态博弈防御模型。基于故障方的有限理性假设和故障方行动的关联性假设,综合考虑元件自身故障、外界环境、潮流转移和隐性故障等因素对元件停运概率的影响,提出基于实时运行条件的元件停运概率表征有限理性的故障方不完美的选择能力;根据可掌握的事故状态信息,提出潮流转移严重度和系统失负荷严重度表征故障方追求自身利益的意识;基于风险分析方法,生成故障方的策略集合。从风险理论的角度出发,将运行风险作为收益函数,用于定量评估防御方行动的有效性。以IEEE 39节点系统为例,验证了所提模型的合理性。     

Statistic Analysis on Rubber Industry in First Quarter of 2014

正Overall Condition According to the statistics on 425 key member enterprises under 11 branches respectively engaged in tires,cycle tires,rubber hosesrubber belts,rubber products,rubber shoes,latexes,carbon black,comprehensive utilization of waste rubber,rubber machinery moulds,rubber chemicals and framework materials,the realized gross industrial output value at current price was RMB 77.274 billion yuan with the year-on-year(the same below)growth of 4.89%in the first quarter of 2014;the     

供应链上游段集中控制型 VMI & TPL模式利益分配机制

以基本的“收益共享契约”为基础,以集中控制型VMI＆TPL模式为对象,研究供应链上游段各成员企业的协调。由于基本的收益共享契约不能对供应链进行有效协调,提出了基于风险共担的收益共享契约,但是该契约不能实现供应链各成员的期望收益的帕累托最优。为了改进这一缺陷,建立了基于不对称的Nash协商的风险共担型的收益共享契约模型。分析表明：该模型不仅克服了不能实现供应链各成员的期望收益达到帕累托最优的缺点,还可以实现各参与企业的期望收益的帕累托最优。     

Variance plus bias optimal response surface designs with qualitative factors applied to stem choice modeling

This paper explores the issue of model misspecification, or bias, in the context of response surface design problems involving quantitative and qualitative factors. New designs are proposed specifically to address bias and compared with five types of alternatives ranging from types of composite to D‐optimal designs using four criteria including D‐efficiency and measured accuracy on test problems. Findings include that certain designs from the literature are expected to cause prediction errors that practitioners would likely find unacceptable. A case study relating to the selection of science, technology, engineering, or mathematics majors by college students confirms that the expected substantial improvements in prediction accuracy using the proposed designs can be realized in relevant situations. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于收益管理的BTO生产能力决策的随机规划模型及智能算法

基于订单制造BTO环境下生产能力分配为达到企业利润最大化要考虑不同订单收益的差异性.针对一般收入管理模型只考虑能力分配并假设需求和价格为外生变量的缺陷,假设了需求为价格的随机指数函数,将收入管理模型扩展为能力分配与定价的集成模型,然后利用机会约束规划方法对此随机模型进行转化,并给出了基于混合智能算法的求解过程.最后通过...