Mixture ratio modeling of dynamic systems

Any knowledge extraction relies (possibly implicitly) on a hypothesis about the modelled-data dependence. The extracted knowledge ultimately serves to a decision-making (DM). DM always faces uncertainty and this makes probabilistic modelling adequate. The inspected black-box modeling deals with “universal” approximators of the relevant probabilistic model. Finite mixtures with components in the exponential family are often exploited. Their attractiveness stems from their flexibility, the cluster interpretability of components and the existence of algorithms for processing high-dimensional data streams. They are even used in dynamic cases with mutually dependent data records while regression and auto-regression mixture components serve to the dependence modeling. These dynamic models, however, mostly assume data-independent component weights, that is, memoryless transitions between dynamic mixture components. Such mixtures are not universal approximators of dynamic probabilistic models. Formally, this follows from the fact that the set of finite probabilistic mixtures is not closed with respect to the conditioning, which is the key estimation and predictive operation. The paper overcomes this drawback by using ratios of finite mixtures as universally approximating dynamic parametric models. The paper motivates them, elaborates their approximate Bayesian recursive estimation and reveals their application potential.     

Deposition of UF5 on the surface of steel material having oxide coating in contact with gaseous UF6

When UF6 is handled in leak tight system, the amount of uranium compound formed on the surface of containers, valves, and others in UF6 handling facilities is not so significant for a short term that special attention has not been given to this problem. The present work was done to throw some more light on this problem based on the recent experiment. We discuss the possibility that the intermolecular transfer of a fluorine atom from UF6 to UF5 may participate in the formation of uranium compound. The discussion includes also the unique features contained in the experimental result, the reaction processes assumed in this problem, and the derivation of a rate equation for expressing the deposition of uranium compound. Furthermore, we propose a new method for determining nonlinear parameters included in a governing differential equation having two variables for expressing the deposition of uranium compound from experimental raw data.     

渣油催化临氢热转化钼铁双金属催化剂的研究

Replacement of precious single metal catalysts with cost-effective, highly-dispersed composite catalysts for catalytic hydrothermal conversion of residue holds tremendous promise for the residue upgrading technologies. Organic metals were added to the feed as the oil-soluble precursors, and transformed into the catalytic active phases in this work. Physical properties and structures of the composite catalysts had been investigated by X-ray fluorescence spectroscopy, X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy, X-ray diffraction, scanning electron microscope and transmission electron microscopy. The composite catalysts were found to be highly efficient in the catalytic hydrothermal conversion of both model compound and residue. Increased metal dispersion and synergistic effects of two metals played indispensable roles in such catalytic system. Results showed that under the test conditions in the article, the catalyst had the best catalytic performance when the mass ratio of molybdenum to iron was 1.5.     

Flow state monitoring of gas-water two-phase flow using multi-Gaussian mixture model based on canonical variate analysis

As a highly complex and time-varying process, gas-water two-phase flow is commonly encountered in industries. It has a variety of typical flow states and transition flow states. Accurate identification and monitoring of flow states is not only beneficial to further study of two-phase flow but also helpful for stable operation and economic efficiency of process industry. Combining canonical variate analysis (CVA) and Gaussian mixture model (GMM), a strategy called multi-CVA-GMM is proposed for flow state monitoring in gas-water two-phase flow. CVA is used to extract flow state features from the perspective of correlation between historical data and future data, which solves the cross correlation and temporal correlation of multi-sensor measurement data. GMM calculates the possibility that the current flow state belongs to each typical flow pattern and judges the current flow state by probability indicators. It is conducive to follow-up use of Bayesian inference probability and Mahalanobis distance-based (BID) indicator for flow state monitoring, which avoids repeated traversal of multiple CVA-GMM models and improves the efficiency of the monitoring process. The probability indicators can also be used to analyze transition flow states. The method combining the probabilistic idea of GMM with the deterministic idea of multimodal modeling can accurately identify the current flow state and effectively monitor the evolution of flow state. The multi-CVA-GMM method is validated by using the measured data of the horizontal flow loop of gas-water two-phase flow experimental facility, and its effectiveness is proved.     

Two-level intelligent modeling method for the rate of penetration in complex geological drilling process

The rate of penetration (ROP) model is of great importance in achieving a high efficiency in the complex geological drilling process. In this paper, a novel two-level intelligent modeling method is proposed for the ROP considering the drilling characteristics of data incompleteness, couplings, and strong nonlinearities. Firstly, a piecewise cubic Hermite interpolation method is introduced to complete the lost drilling data. Then, a formation drillability (FD) fusion submodel is established by using Nadaboost extreme learning machine (Nadaboost-ELM) algorithm, and the mutual information method is used to obtain the parameters, strongly correlated with the ROP. Finally, a ROP submodel is established by a neural network with radial basis function optimized by the improved particle swarm optimization (RBFNN-IPSO). This two-level ROP model is applied to a real drilling process and the proposed method shows the best performance in ROP prediction as compared with conventional methods. The proposed ROP model provides the basis for intelligent optimization and control in the complex geological drilling process.     

Forging furnace with thermochemical waste-heat recuperation by natural gas reforming: Fuel saving and heat balance

This paper considers thermochemical recuperation (TCR) of waste-heat using natural gas reforming by steam and combustion products. Combustion products contain steam (H₂O), carbon dioxide (CO₂), and ballast nitrogen (N₂). Because endothermic chemical reactions take place, methane steam-dry reforming creates new synthetic fuel that contains valuable combustion components: hydrogen (H₂), carbon monoxide (CO), and unreformed methane (CH₄). There are several advantages to performing TCR in the industrial furnaces: high energy efficiency, high regeneration rate (rate of waste-heat recovery), and low emission of greenhouse gases (CO₂, NO_x). As will be shown, the use of TCR is significantly increasing the efficiency of industrial furnaces – it has been observed that TCR is capable of reducing fuel consumption by nearly 25%. Additionally, increased energy efficiency has a beneficial effect on the environment as it leads to a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions.     

一种5 重real-time PCR筛查转基因水稻方法的建立

以转基因水稻中最常用的CaMV35S启动子、NOS终止子、Cry1Ab/Ac基因、HPT基因及SPS水稻内标基因为研究对象，利用5 种不同的荧光信号（FAM、HEX、Taxas Red、Cy5、Cy5.5）进行多重实时聚合酶链式反应（real-time polymerase chain reaction，real-time PCR）检测方法的研究。通过引物组合筛选、反应体系优化、特异性测试、灵敏度测试、适用性测试等一系列实验，建立了5 重real-time PCR方法，灵敏度可达0.032%。此方法具有灵敏度高、结果准确、通量大等优点，可实现水稻中转基因成分的快速、高效检测。     

Quasi-static compressive behaviour of aluminium cenosphere syntactic foams

In this paper, cenosphere particles embedded in AA2014 aluminium matrix are used to fabricate syntactic foam by stir casting method. The particle size is about 100?µm and foam density is about 1990?kg?m^?3. Compression tests at strain rate 0.001/s are performed on foam samples to characterise their mechanical properties which are then used in numerical analysis on commercial finite element analysis software ABAQUS/CAE with isotropic elastic-plastic material model. Experimental and numerical results show good conformity in deformation behaviour with elastic and plateau zones showing average deviations less than 5% and 20%, respectively. Foams showed high yield stress and energy absorption capabilities that can be useful in making blast and impact resistant structures.