A new time invariant fuzzy time series forecasting method based on particle swarm optimization

In the analysis of time invariant fuzzy time series, fuzzy logic group relationships tables have been generally preferred for determination of fuzzy logic relationships. The reason of this is that it is not need to perform complex matrix operations when these tables are used. On the other hand, when fuzzy logic group relationships tables are exploited, membership values of fuzzy sets are ignored. Thus, in defiance of fuzzy set theory, fuzzy sets’ elements with the highest membership value are only considered. This situation causes information loss and decrease in the explanation power of the model. To deal with these problems, a novel time invariant fuzzy time series forecasting approach is proposed in this study. In the proposed method, membership values in the fuzzy relationship matrix are computed by using particle swarm optimization technique. The method suggested in this study is the first method proposed in the literature in which particle swarm optimization algorithm is used to determine fuzzy relations. In addition, in order to increase forecasting accuracy and make the proposed approach more systematic, the fuzzy c-means clustering method is used for fuzzification of time series in the proposed method. The proposed method is applied to well-known time series to show the forecasting performance of the method. These time series are also analyzed by using some other forecasting methods available in the literature. Then, the results obtained from the proposed method are compared to those produced by the other methods. It is observed that the proposed method gives the most accurate forecasts.     

Nondestructive characterization of the mechanical strength of diffusion bonds. II. Application of a quasi-static spring model

It has been shown that the acoustic response of imperfect interfaces may be described by a quasi-static spring model. In the present paper, experimental data on the geometry of the contacts between two diffusion-bonded blocks have been used to determine the spring stiffness of such interfaces which have been correlated with experimentally determined ultrasonic reflection coefficients. The correlation between the theoretical reflection coefficient and the spring stiffness was found to be in excellent agreement with experimentally-observed values, if the disbonds are of infinitesimally small thickness. For disbonds of finite thickness, the agreement is less satisfactory. Reasons for the discrepancy in the latter case are unknown at the present time.     

The quantifier structure of sentences that characterize nondeterministic time complexity

For every nondeterministic Turing machineM of time complexityT(n), there is a second-order sentence of a very restricted form, whose set of finite models encodes the set of strings recognized byM. Specifically, has a relational symbol which is interpreted as addition restricted to finite segments of the natural numbers, and a prefix consisting of existentially quantified unary second-order variables followed by a universal-existential first-order part. Here, every input stringx is encoded by a model of sizeT(|x|). Using a closely related encoding of strings as models where the size of the model is the length of the string, a consequence is that ifT(n)=n ^d, then there is a sentence with a similar prefix but whose second-order variables ared-ary and whose finite models encode the strings accepted byM. Potential applications to low-level complexity are discussed.     

基于MCS-51系列单片机时间控制器软件的设计与实现

本文设计的基于MCS-51系列单片机时间控制器主要应用AT89C51作为控制核心,采用实时时钟芯片DSl302、EipROM24C02及动态数码显示相结合。具有硬件电路简单、软件功能完善、控制系统可靠、性价比较高等特点,具有一定的使用和参考价值。     

变形镜交连值的优化分析

关于优化光波控制,自适应光学校正是至关重要的一个环节,可用于改善激光光束质量及校正光束在传输过程中气流引起的波前畸变等。变形镜是其核心器件,而交连值是影响变形镜校正精度的关键因素。针对变形镜实际使用时需要对致动器进行一定的约束,利用带约束的最小二乘法,分析了在一定约束条件下交连值变化对变形镜校正精度及控制稳定性的影响。以Zernike像差和以大气湍流模型构造的像差为校正对象,寻找校正效果最好的交连值。结果表明各阶Zernike像差对应的最优交连值差异较大,最优交连值主要分布在15%～35%之间。从控制误差引起的校正效果变化的方面考虑,对正方形致动器排布的最优交连值位于15%～25%区域。     

基于单片机的皮带秤变频调速控制仪的设计与实现

介绍了皮带秤调速控制仪系统实现的原理和方法,提出了在皮带秤调速控制仪的动态跟踪问题,采用模糊-数字PID复合控制算法,既可计量也可以实时跟踪控制产量。实践表明,该控制方法理想地解决了实时跟踪问题,取得了较好的控制效果。     

Changes in seebeck coefficient of Pt and Pt 10% Rh after use to 1700°C in High-purity polycrystalline alumina

A technique is presented that enables the effects of temperature on the Seebeck coefficient to be assessed for individual wires. The technique, involving a high-resolution thermoelectric scanning rig and a nonuniform conditioning furnace of known temperature profile, was applied to 0.5-mm-diameter wires of Pt and Pt 10% Rh. Changes were observed in Seebeck coefficient when these wires were used in high-purity twin-bore insulation for up to 200 h at temperatures over the range 500 to 1700°C. Contamination from the insulation was found to be transmitted by a vaporization process, having an activation energy of 3 eV. This caused changes of up to 0.14 V · °C^–1 in Pt and 0.01 V · °C^–1 in Pt 10% Rh. Rhodium transfer to the pure Pt wire changed its Seebeck coefficient by up to 5 V · °C^–1. The consequences of both processes for thermocouple pyrometry are presented.     

Thermal accommodation coefficient of gases on controlled solid surfaces: Argon-tungsten system

The knowledge of the thermal accommodation coefficient for gases on well-controlled surfaces as a function of temperature is imperative to understanding the mechanism of interphase heat transfer on the microscopic level. With this goal in view, a heat transfer column instrument is designed, fabricated, assembled, and tested for the specific case a argon—tungsten system. With 99.9999%, pure argon, six sets of data are taken in the rarefied gas region in the maximum temperature range of 500–1500 K. Four sets of these measurements are in the temperature-jump region and are analyzed by the constant-power method to compute the thermal accommodation coefficient of argon on a controlled tungsten surface. The other two sets are taken under free-molecular flow conditions and are interpreted in accordance with the man-free-path kinetic theory for the low-pressure regime. These data are compared and discussed in the context of reported data in the literature and interpreted in the light of the surface condition and finish of the tungsten wire.Nomenclature A area of the solid surface - C _j constants in Eq. (3); j=0, 1, 2, 3, and 4 - E _i incident energy flux - E _r reflected energy flux - E _s reflected energy flux when the interaction between the gas and the solid atoms is complete - g temperature-jump distance - L half-length of the metal wire - M molecular weight of the gas - P gas pressure - Q _H total thermal energy conducted by the gas per unit time from the hot surface - Q_KT total thermal energy conducted by the gas per unit time if the striking gas molecules were to attain thermal equilibrium with the hot surface - R molar gas constant - r radial coordinate - r _f radius of the hot wire - S sticking coefficient - S_o initial sticking coefficient - T temperature - T _e linearly extrapolated gas temperature on the hot-wire surface - T _g temperature of the impinging gas molecules - T _H temperature of the hot surface - T _i temperature of the incident gas stream - T _r temperature of the gas molecules receding after collision with the solid surface - T _s temperature of the solid surface Greek Symbols thermal accommodation coefficient for the gas—solid surface - resistivity of the metal wire - gas coverage on the solid surface For an explanation of symbols, see Nomenclature.     

人群头发元素分布及某些特征研究

本文介绍用堆中子活化分析法测定人群头发中I、Br、Mg、Mn、Cu、Na、V、Cl、Al、Ca、S等11种元素。研究人发中元素分布特征、相关性特征、性别年令分布特征。方法学中还从法庭科学应用角度介绍同一性识别中差异率和重合几率的双判据方法。