Intelligent Collectives: Theory,Applications, and Research Challenges

ABSTRACT

Nowadays, along with the rapid development of information technologies, very often solving a common problem is entrusted to many autonomous units (people, systems). With such an approach, one can tap into the so-called collective intelligence (CI)—emerging from the collaboration and competition of many individuals. In this paper, we present recent research on CI related to the effectiveness of using the wisdom of crowds to perform a wide range of problems. For this aim, we first introduce a general framework of CI involving key characteristics of intelligent collectives. Next, we focus on the problem of how diversity and collective cardinality influence collective performance. Then, its applications, which are widely used such as prediction markets and Delphi method, will be presented. Furthermore, some research challenges on the capacity of combining CI with other research fields such as machine learning and social networks are also discussed.     

两阶段需求相关的动态易逝品最优订货策略

以动态市场环境下的易逝品为研究对象,针对两阶段需求相关、每次订货时带有固定的订购费用以及未满足需求部分延期供给等实际现象,建立了动态易逝品销售商两阶段订货决策模型.对模型的最优解进行了理论分析,并提出了寻求两阶段订货策略的简单方法.以朗科优盘经销商的采购实例来说明该模型的应用价值.最后,通过探讨订货决策与需求波动、两阶段需求相关系数以及延期供给率等因素的关系,得出了一些重要的管理启示.     

MTBE醚化技术及催化剂进展

简介ＭＴＢＥ的国内外市场需求状况，综述了近几的利用催化蒸馏技术生产ＭＴＢＥ的研制开发进展及醚化催化剂的研究新进展。     

Electricity market participation of wind farms: the success story of the Spanish pragmatism

In the last 10 years, more than 15 GW of wind power (Asociación Empresarial Eólica (Spanish Wind Energy Association), Nota de prensa (Press release) 17 de enero de 2008. http://www.aeeolica.org/doc/NP_080117_Espana_supera_los_15000_MW_eolicos.pdf) have been installed in Spain, of which more than 3.5 GW in 2007. Furthermore, plans are to reach 20 GW by 2010 and there are expectations of an installed capacity exceeding 40 GW by 2020. This article will present the innovative solutions for technical and economical integration that allow to reach such high level wind penetration objectives (the system peaks at around 44 GW and is almost isolated). It will be described how the regulation has evolved from a pure Feed-in-Tariff to a market+premium option, where technical and economic integration has been a priority. Today, approximately 97% of installed wind capacity accesses the Spanish wholesale electricity market. Market integration has been crucial, sending the correct signals to participants to look for the optimum technical solutions. Technical improvements have come from both wind power producers (fault-ride-through capabilities, visibility and controllability of wind power, power production forecasting, reactive power control) and the system operator (specific control centre dedicated to Renewable Energy Sources (RES), new security analysis tools, gaining technical confidence of wind capabilities).     

The use of data from South Australia's rental tenancy tribunal for research and policy analysis: Issues of validity and efficacy

This paper examines the value for research and policy development of rental tenancy data collected by the South Australian Rental Tenancy Tribunal (RTT). The data held by the RTT are for South Australia only, but comparable organisations exist in a number of other states, such as New South Wales and Victoria. Lessons learned from South Australia could serve as a pilot for the development of a new (semi-) national framework for monitoring the private rental market.     

Inflow shortages in deregulated power markets — Reasons for concern?

In many countries hydropower constitutes a large share of the electricity producing capacity. In the earlier regulated electricity markets, production capacities exceeded demand due to security of supply concerns. The present deregulated markets base investments upon profitability alone, and security of supply issues are claimed to be less important. Market operators trust the pricing mechanism in competitive markets to clear. Then low inflow constitutes a less problem. Several markets, both under regulated and deregulated regimes, have faced serious droughts. Some of them have experienced problems with market clearance (Chile, Brazil, California) while other markets functioned well (The Nordic market). Important features to the market response are the flexibility of demand, the pattern of inflow shortage, the storage capacities, the possibility of trade between regions with different production technologies, and the market design and concentration. We apply an empirical based market model to simulate the effects under two inflow shortage scenarios in an international market with combined hydro and thermal capacities and restricted transmission capacities. We compare the scenarios with actual events and show that the model and the real market outcome are comparable. The simulations do not reveal any problems with the functioning of the market, which should calm down the anxiousness about security of supply in deregulated markets with stochastic energy supply.     

Prediction of Future Uniform Milk Prices in Florida Federal Milk Marketing Order 6 from Milk Futures Markets

This study assessed the accuracy of 3 methods that predict the uniform milk price in Federal Milk Marketing Order 6 (Florida). Predictions were made for 1 to 12 mo into the future. Data were from January 2003 to May 2007. The CURRENT method assumed that future uniform milk prices were equal to the last announced uniform milk price. The F+BASIS and F+UTIL methods were based on the milk futures markets because the futures prices reflect the market's expectation of the class III and class IV cash prices that are announced monthly by USDA. The F+BASIS method added an exponentially weighted moving average of the difference between the class III cash price and the historical uniform milk price (also known as basis) to the class III futures price. The F+UTIL method used the class III and class IV futures prices, the most recently announced butter price, and historical utilizations to predict the skim milk prices, butterfat prices, and utilizations in all 4 classes. Predictions of future utilizations were made with a Holt-Winters smoothing method. Federal Milk Marketing Order 6 had high class I utilization (85 ± 4.8%). Mean and standard deviation of the class III and class IV cash prices were $13.39 ± 2.40/cwt (1 cwt = 45.36 kg) and $12.06 ± 1.80/cwt, respectively. The actual uniform price in Tampa, Florida, was $16.62 ± 2.16/cwt. The basis was $3.23 ± 1.23/cwt. The F+BASIS and F+UTIL predictions were generally too low during the period considered because the class III cash prices were greater than the corresponding class III futures prices. For the 1- to 6-mo-ahead predictions, the root of the mean squared prediction errors from the F+BASIS method were $1.12, $1.20, $1.55, $1.91, $2.16, and $2.34/cwt, respectively. The root of the mean squared prediction errors ranged from $2.50 to $2.73/cwt for predictions up to 12 mo ahead. Results from the F+UTIL method were similar. The accuracies of the F+BASIS and F+UTIL methods for all 12 fore-cast horizons were not significantly different. Application of the modified Mariano-Diebold tests showed that no method included all the information contained in the other methods. In conclusion, both F+BASIS and F+UTIL methods tended to more accurately predict the future uniform milk prices than the CURRENT method, but prediction errors could be substantial even a few months into the future. The majority of the prediction error was caused by the inefficiency of the futures markets to predict the class III cash prices.     

风电参与投标竞争的多能源市场博弈分析

在能源互联网框架下,利用电、气等多能源互补特性有助于缓解风电等可再生能源随机波动的不利影响。为弥补风电开发商在日前市场的投标偏差,首先给出一个考虑电力与天然气等多种能源的市场交易框架,其中参与日前电力市场竞争的风电开发商分别通过电转气(P2G)设备和燃气机组进行能源转换,处理风电实际出力过剩和不足这2种情况。然后建立风电开发商参与投标竞争的日前电力市场与天然气市场博弈模型,其中风电开发商、传统发电商和天然气生产商均以供应函数投标方式参与多能源市场竞争。最后,通过算例分析验证了理论模型的有效性。     

Time variation in European carbon pass-through rates in electricity futures prices

The European Union Emissions Trading Scheme is a means to price emission allowances. Electricity market prices should reflect these market prices of emission allowances as they are a cost factor for power producers. The pass-through rate is the fraction of the emission allowance price that is passed through to electricity market prices. It is often measured and presented as an average or a fixed estimate over some time period. However, we expect that the pass-through rates should actually vary over time as electricity supply curves reflect the marginal costs of different producers that differ in emission intensity. We apply a Kalman Filter approach to observe pass-through rates in Germany and U.K. and find strong support for time varying instead of fixed pass-through rates. Although policy makers are interested in the impact of a policy on average, our results indicate that one needs to be careful with the time-frame over which pass-through rates are measured for policy evaluation, as an incorrect chosen evaluation period could cause an under- or overestimation of the pass-through rate. In addition, our model helps to provide policy makers with insight in the development of pass-through rates when market circumstances change with respect to power production.