模糊Petri网及知识表示

在建造专家系统中虽然有很多种知识表示方法，但都有不尽人意的地方，本文试图用一种新的方法－Ｐｅｔｒｉ网模型来表示知识。本文给出了Ｆｕｚｚｚｙ Ｐｅｔｒｉ网和广义Ｆｕｚｚｙ Ｐｅｔｒｉ网两种模型，并给出了相应的推理算法，一旦专家知识用Ｐｅｔｒｉ网表示后，根据Ｐｅｔｒｉ网固有的特性，我们就能处理专家系统中并行推理、无回溯推理，反向推理等问题。     

Information systems effectiveness: research designs for causal inference

Abstract. This paper examines the capacity of the research designs of 37 empirical studies of information systems (IS) effectiveness to provide a basis for the development of theories about behaviour related to IS effectiveness. The power of each study to support causal inference was evaluated in terms of (a) its handling of the time dimension, (b) its ability to weigh differences and (c) its resistance to internal validity threats that pose alternative explanations for its reported findings. Of the reviewed studies, 29.7% could account for the time dimension, 32.4% employed a comparison group and 16.2% were not susceptible to any internal validity threats. Only 13.5% of the studies combined an accounting for the time dimension with the use of a comparison group. Of these, however, only 5.4% were also invulnerable to internal validity threats. The research designs of nearly 95% of these published studies were deficient in supporting causal inference. In those studies, suggestions that one variable was causally related to another variable could not be substantiated. Encouragement for the future capacity of IS effectiveness research to support causal inference was found in a trend towards the use of quasiexperimental designs. Recommendations are made regarding ways to increase the inferential capacity of research designs employed in the study of IS effectiveness.     

大坝施工混凝土质量的评价体系

本文介绍了大坝施工混凝土质量的评价系统软件的设计思路和设计成果。它利用现代计算机技术和应用模糊数学理论评价混凝土重力坝和拱坝单块和整体的质量。在采用模糊综合评价工程质量中，对不同工艺环节，对坝体不同部位，鉴于其质量要求的差异应赋予不同的权重，在权重的取值上采用了专家调查排序，定量转化的方法是比较适宜的。在程序设计中，评价数学模型采用了BASIC程序，访膜块通过*TXT文件实现了与整个大坝混凝土质量微机管理系统的接口及数据传递。操作运行方便灵活。     

钢铁企业价格预测决策模型体系研究

通过对钢铁企业现行价格管理体系的分析 ,建立了钢铁企业价格预测决策模型体系。充分利用大量的定性、定量信息 ,并把趋势预测和因果预测技术相结合 ,采用组合预测模型对价格进行预测 ,最后对预测出来的多方案进行模糊综合评价 ,给出推荐方案顺序。实际应用表明 ,模型体系是有效的。     

Verification of wind resource study of a Scottish region

In a survey of the practical wind energy resource present in the Tayside Region of Scotland it was estimated that over 1500 km² of land is suitable for wind energy development in the Region after consideration of a range of physical, technical and institutional factors. Wind speed data for this survey was obtained from the Energy Technology Support Unit (ETSU) UK Wind Speed Data Package. To verify the wind speeds obtained from the ETSU package a representative sample of sites in and around the identified areas of potential in Tayside were modelled for mean annual wind speed using the Wind Atlas Analysis and Application Program (WA^sP). The wind speeds for the sites obtained from the WA^sP analysis were compared with those obtained from the ETSU UK Wind Speed Data Package and conclusions drawn as to the reliability of the Tayside wind energy survey and the general applicability of the ETSU package for broad wind energy resource assessment.     

Rule-based supervisory control of a two-link flexible manipulator

In this paper, we propose a two level hierarchical control strategy to achieve accurate end-point position of a planar two-link flexible manipulator. The upper level consists of a feedforward rule-based supervisory controller that incorporates fuzzy logic, whereas the lower level consists of conventional controllers that combine shaft position-endpoint acceleration feedback for disturbance rejection properties and shaping of the (joint) actuator inputs to minimize the energy transferred to the flexible modes during commanded movements. The effectiveness of this hierarchical control strategy is verified by experimental results for various movements of the links, in various configurations. In particular, we illustrate how the hierarchical intelligent control strategy performs better than conventional control techniques for endpoint position control in the presence of flexure effects.     

Wind energy resource assessment for five locations in Saudi Arabia

The analysis of recently collected wind data at five sites in Saudi Arabia namely, Dhulum, Arar, Yanbu, Gassim and Dhahran is presented. The five sites represent different geographically and climatologically conditions. The data collected over a period spanned between 1995 and 2002 with different collection periods for each site. Daily, monthly and frequency profiles of the wind speed at the sites showed that Dhulum and Arar sites have higher wind energy potential with annual wind speed average of 5.7 and 5.4 m/s and speeds higher than 5 m/s for 60 and 47% of the time, respectively. The two sites are candidates for remote area wind energy applications. The costal site's, i.e. Yanbu and Dhahran wind speed data indicated that the two sites have lower annual wind speed averages and wind blows at speed higher than 5 m/s during afternoon hours. That makes the two sites candidates for grid connected wind systems for electrical load peak shaving. The data of Gassim site showed that the site has the lowest wind energy potential compared to the others. The annual energy produced by a Nordex N43 wind machine is estimated to be 1080, 990, 730, 454 and 833 MWh for Dhulum, Arar, Yanbu, Gassim and Dhahran, respectively. The analysis showed that the estimated annual energy produced by the machine based on 10 min averaged data is 2.5% higher than the estimated energy based on 30 min averaged data.     

Simulation of the VVER-1000 pump start-up experiment of the OECD V1000CT benchmark with CATHARE and TRAC-PF1

In the framework of joint effort between the Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) of OECD, the United States Department of Energy (US DOE), and the Commissariat a l'Energie Atomique (CEA), France a coupled three-dimensional (3D) thermal-hydraulics/neutron kinetics benchmark for VVER-1000 was defined. The benchmark consists of calculation of a pump start-up experiment labelled V1000CT-1 (Phase 1), as well as a vessel mixing experiment and main steam line break (MSLB) transient labelled V1000CT-2 (Phase 2), respectively. The reference nuclear plant is Kozloduy-6 in Bulgaria. The overall objective is to assess computer codes used in the analysis of VVER-1000 reactivity transients. A specific objective is to assess the vessel mixing models used in system codes. Plant data are available for code validation consisting of one experiment of pump start-up (V1000CT-1) and one experiment of steam generator isolation (V1000CT-2). The validated codes can be used to calculate asymmetric MSLB transients involving similar mixing patterns. This paper summarizes a comparison of CATHARE and TRAC-PF1 system code results for V1000CT-1, Exercise 1, which is a full plant point kinetics simulation of a reactor coolant system (RCS) pump start-up experiment. The reference plant data include integral and sector average parameters. The comparison is made from the point of view of vessel mixing and full system simulation. CATHARE used a six-sector multiple 1D vessel thermal-hydraulic model with cross flows and TRAC used a six-sector, 18-channel coarse-mesh 3D vessel model. Good agreement in terms of integral parameters and inter-loop mixing is observed.     

动态模糊神经网络在大坝变形预报中的应用

针对静态模糊神经网络的局限性,提出了在线动态建模的模糊神经网络方法.当新增样本进入训练集之后,根据新样本对模型的贡献大小,在已有模型的基础上进行动态修正,这样可以减少建模的计算时间.新方法实现了增加样本而矩阵阶数不增加,避免了矩阵求逆运算,理论上可以提高计算效率.实例表明动态模糊神经网络方法是可行的,可实现持久预报,具有较强的适应能力和较高的预报精度,可应用于在线实时变形预报及相关领域.     

三江平原水利综合规划的重新编制问题

三江平原是我国重要的商品粮基地和粮食战略后备基地。原有规划距今已过30年，远不能适应现代发展要求。结合新的形势，提出了重新编制三江平原综合规划的现实意义、目标设想及主要修编内容。