An integrated methodology to control the risk of cardiovascular disease in patients with hypertension and type 1 diabetes

Today, air pollution, smoking, use of fatty acids and ready‐made foods, and so on, have exacerbated heart disease. Therefore, controlling the risk of such diseases can prevent or reduce their incidence. The present study aimed at developing an integrated methodology including Markov decision processes (MDP) and genetic algorithm (GA) to control the risk of cardiovascular disease in patients with hypertension and type 1 diabetes. First, the efficiency of GA is evaluated against Grey Wolf optimization (GWO) algorithm, and then, the superiority of GA is revealed. Next, the MDP is employed to estimate the risk of cardiovascular disease. For this purpose, model inputs are first determined using a validated micro‐simulation model for screening cardiovascular disease developed at Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Iran by GA. The model input factors are then defined accordingly and using these inputs, three risk estimation models are identified. The results of these models support WHO guidelines that provide medicine with a high discount to patients with high expected LYs. To develop the MDP methodology, policies should be adopted that work well despite the difference between the risk model and the actual risk. Finally, a sensitivity analysis is conducted to study the behavior of the total medication cost against the changes of parameters.     

一种基于网络安全风险评估的入侵检测方法

针对传统的入侵检测系统存在报警数量大、误报率高等缺陷,提出了一种基于网络安全风险评估的入侵检测方法,该方法基于入侵检测结果,引入抗体浓度随入侵强度动态变化这一人工免疫理论的最新研究成果进行网络安全风险的计算,然后根据当前网络面临的实时安全风险动态设置报警策略。实验结果表明,该方法能够实时、定量地计算主机和网络所面临的风险,并极大地降低报警数量和误报率。     

一种基于灰色关联分析的信息安全风险评估方法研究

随着信息化进程的快速发展,保障信息系统的安全性和降低信息系统潜在的风险,一直是国内外学者关注的焦点,而风险评估正是解决该问题的有效方法之一,但是在风险评估过程中存在评估指标难以量化、风险值难以界定等困难,因此文章提出了一种基于灰色关联分析的信息安全风险评估方法,该方法首先建立了信息系统的风险评估指标体系,其次将评估的信息系统与最优信息系统进行关联度分析,最后得出信息系统风险的准确度量。该方法可以使信息系统的评估过程简单化,标准化。     

分布式信息系统风险评估研究-以安徽烟草为例

对分布式信息系统所面临的主要风险进行识别和评估是构建灾备系统的首要任务。以安徽烟草分布式信息系统为例,首先分析了该信息系统在环境、管理、技术、设备等方面所存在的风险,然后以层次分析法为核心构造了评估决策模型,结合专家打分,计算出各类风险对安徽烟草信息系统的威胁程度并进行排序,从而识别出主要的风险源,为构建灾备体系提供依据。     

空中交通预警与防撞系统(TCAS)风险及对策研究

空中交通预警与防撞系统TCAS对飞行安全非常重要,它能够通过对附近的飞机进行冲突检测,预测未来可能发生的危险,提示飞行员避免危险,帮助机组维持与其他飞机之间的空中交通安全间隔;但TCAS本身依然存在风险;在此对TCAS进行了半物理仿真测试,包括数字样机开发测试、物理样机开发测试、虚拟试飞以及数据统计分析等,对其各项功能进行测试与验证;在参阅众多相关文献的基础上,结合所做的研究工作,讨论了TCAS的主要风险,并针对这些风险,提出TCAS在设计、测试、操作方面需要改进的地方,从各方面完善TCAS,降低其风险,进一步保障飞行安全。     

Enterprise architecture,IT effectiveness and the mediating role of IT alignment in US hospitals

Despite the possible benefits of implementing healthcare information technologies, successful implementation of effective healthcare information technology is constrained by cultural and regulatory concerns and technical obstacles encountered when establishing or upgrading an organisation's enterprise infrastructure. In this paper, we advance Ross' four‐stage model of enterprise architecture maturity as a valuable IT resource for helping healthcare organisations sustain a competitive advantage. We use partial least squares (PLS) structural equation modelling to analyse survey data from 164 US hospitals at different stages of EA maturity. Our results provide evidence that enterprise architecture maturity directly influences the effectiveness of hospitals' IT resources for achieving strategic goals. Further, enterprise architecture maturity indirectly influences the effectiveness of IT resources when IT alignment is incorporated as a mediating variable. We discuss the implications of our findings for research and practice and suggest opportunities for future research.     

Human error identification in human reliability assessment. Part 2: Detailed comparison of techniques

This is the second part of a two-part review of human error identification (HEI) approaches in human reliability assessment (HRA). Part 1 reviewed the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) context in which HRA occurs, and then detailed 12 HEI techniques which have evolved in the field of HRA. Part 2 attempts to compare the way these techniques perform against a range of criteria relevant to HEI theoretical and empirical validity, and practical usefulness in applied HRA. It is hoped that these comparisons will help assessors in the selection of techniques for practical applications. The comparisons also point to research and development needs in the area of applied HEI.     

铁矿石境外投资风险评估的模糊神经网络模型

论文将模糊理论与神经网络结合,对铁矿石境外投资所涉及的风险因素分别从资产影响、威胁频度两方面进行分析,建立了铁矿石境外投资的风险层次化结构,并构造了各因素所对应评判集的隶属度矩阵;综合运用模糊推理算法与神经网络仿真技术,对铁矿石境外投资的风险进行评估,进而判定铁矿石境外投资风险等级。最后,通过计算铁矿石境外投资的市场风险说明了算法的应用,并将结果与模糊综合评估得到的风险值进行比较,检测了模型的有效性。     

黄冈市农村卫生人才培养的现状与对策

本文采取问卷调查和文献查阅相结合的方式,对黄冈市卫生专业技术人员队伍现状进行了调查和分析,剖析了黄冈市农村卫生人才培养的方法和经验,提出了切实可行的农村卫生人才培养的对策与建议。     

基于模拟攻击的高校网络安全风险评估研究

针对高校网络目前存在的安全风险,提出一种新型的基于模拟攻击的高校网络安全风险评估模型。该模型综合考虑了单机脆弱性和网络攻击威胁,首先结合原有基于单机脆弱性测出的风险值,模拟攻击者利用网络弱点的入侵过程,产生攻击状态图;然后基于生成的攻击状态图和原有风险值,识别攻击者入侵网络所利用的攻击行为、可能路线及导致的安全状态变化,评估潜在威胁的位置;并对新方法的风险值给出了定量分析,从而为针对性地实施风险控制决策提供更准确的依据。实验结果表明,该模型是正确的,并且平均要比目前存在的风险评估模型多发现大约50%的安全风险。由此可以看出,本模型方法的评估结论较传统方法更为准确。