历史维度下的河西走廊水利问题研究

社会建设和生态文明建设中,历史维度是不可或缺的一环,流域管理亦然。通过对河西走廊近代水资源开发利用历史的回顾,分析了甘肃省河西走廊地区石羊河、疏勒河及讨赖河流域的水资源开发利用、社会经济发展和流域管理的演变,重点探讨了河西走廊地区历史上形成的"以时分水"的时间水权制度的运行情况、人类活动影响下流域水循环特征变化导致时间水权制度失效的机理,以及讨赖河流域传统分水模式与现代水利制度衔接的现实需求与可能方式。研究认为,在历史维度下进行流域管理问题研究,对于深入认识河西走廊水环境演化规律、深刻理解水资源开发利用管理问题的现实内涵、科学制定传统水资源管理与现实发展要求衔接的可行方案具有重要意义。     

Accident history,risk perception and traffic safe behaviour

Abstract

This study clarifies the associations between accident history, perception of the riskiness of road travel and traffic safety behaviours by taking into account the number and severity of accidents experienced. A sample of 525 road users in Cameroon answered a questionnaire comprising items on perception of risk, safe behaviour and personal accident history. Participants who reported involvement in more than three accidents or involvement in a severe accident perceived road travel as less risky and also reported behaving less safely compared with those involved in fewer, or less severe accidents. The results have practical implications for the prevention of traffic accidents.

Practitioner Summary: The associations between accident history, perceived risk of road travel and safe behaviour were investigated using self-report questionnaire data. Participants involved in more than three accidents, or in severe accidents, perceived road travel as less risky and also reported more unsafe behaviour compared with those involved in fewer, or less severe accidents. Campaigns targeting people with a less serious, less extensive accident history should aim to increase awareness of hazards and the potential severity of their consequences, as well as emphasising how easy it is to take the recommended preventive actions. Campaigns targeting those involved in more frequent accidents, and survivors of serious accidents, should address feelings of invulnerability and helplessness.     

不规则结构隔震设计与研究

目的对比L型不规则隔震结构不同布置方案,确定最优方案并对最优方案进行结构减震分析．方法从建筑功能和减震效果两个方面评价3种不同方案,对最优方案进行抗风计算和地震作用下的非线性时程分析．结果不同方案会引起建筑功能和减震效果的不同,需要综合评价;L型隔震结构可以通过隔震层支座有效布置,使得结构质心和刚心尽量重合,减小了结构的扭转效应;最优方案在地震作用下的非线性时程分析结果显示结构减震效果良好,各项指标均满足规范要求．结论L型隔震结构可选用将隔震层以上结构完全连接的布置方案,既保持了良好的建筑功能,又获得了良好的减震效果,亦可以采用两个结构完全分开的布置方案．     

基于MIDAS设置阻尼器的刚框架地震时程分析

为了验证粘弹性阻尼器对结构消能减震作用的效果,通过运用有限元分析软件MIDAS/GEN建立典型六层钢框架模型,对设置粘弹性阻尼器和未设置粘弹性阻尼器的两种结构分别进行地震作用下非线性时程对比分析.分析的结果从各种方面显示了粘弹性阻尼器对结构效能减震的优越性.     

Ecological strategies successfully predict the effects of river floodplain rehabilitation on breeding birds

To improve the ecological functioning of riverine ecosystems, large‐scale floodplain rehabilitation has been carried out in the Rhine–Meuse Delta since the 1990s. This paper evaluates changes in abundance of 93 breeding bird species over a period of 10 years in response to rehabilitation, by comparing population changes in 75 rehabilitated sites with 124 non‐rehabilitated reference sites. Such quantitative, multi‐species, large‐scale and long‐term evaluations of floodplain rehabilitation on biodiversity are still scarce, particularly studies that focus on the terrestrial component. We try to understand the effects by relating population trends to ecological and life‐history traits and strategies of breeding birds. More specifically, we try to answer the question whether rehabilitation of vegetation succession or hydro‐geomorphological river processes is the key driver behind recent population changes in rehabilitated sites. Populations of 35 species have significantly performed better in rehabilitated sites compared to non‐rehabilitated floodplains, whereas only 8 have responded negatively to rehabilitation. Differences in effects between species are best explained by the trait selection of nest location. Reproductive investment and migratory behaviour were less strong predictors. Based on these three traits we defined eight life‐history strategies that successfully captured a substantial amount of variation in rehabilitation effects. We conclude that spontaneous vegetation succession and initial excavations are currently more important drivers of population changes than rehabilitation of hydrodynamics. The latter are strongly constrained by river regulation. If rehabilitation of hydro‐geomorphological processes remains incomplete in future, artificial cyclic floodplain rejuvenation will be necessary for sustainable conservation of characteristic river birds. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

浅析贝塔精确度与证券投资风险的关系

本文通过选取我国证劵市场上沪市的50只权重股,将所选样本数据分为两个时期,利用回归分析的方法,对股票不同时期历史贝塔的关联性做了实证研究。结果表明,较大投资组合的贝塔包含了较多的这一组合的未来贝塔信息,单个证劵贝塔关于未来贝塔的信息则要少得多;在预测未来贝塔的能力方面,组合的历史贝塔要比单个证劵的历史贝塔强一些。因此,在理论上,股票组合的投资风险低于单个股票的投资风险,这和我们实际操作过程中的风险分散分担机制也是一致的。     

中国近现代史纲要课程时代性教学初探

为了激发大学生学习中国近现代史纲要的兴趣和动力,应当在教学中突出其时代性,把中国近现代史与学生关注的社会热点问题联系起来,培养学生用历史的眼光观察当今世界,拉近该课程与大学生现实生活的距离;教学过程中要注重讨论式教学,切实提高教学实效,真正实现“纲要”课程历史教育和思想政治教育功能的统一。     

北京王府井步行商业街景观环境设计探析

通过对北京王府井步行商业街景观环境现状进行研究分析,归纳总结出王府井步行商业街景观设计应遵循的原则,并且提出对王府井步行商业街景观环境设计的对策：突出历史文化的主题,构建绿色、和谐的街道形态,加强街道景观的维护管理,从而对王府井步行商业街景观环境进行更为良好的营造,提升王府井步行商业街景观环境的质量.     

岁月沧桑话对联

对联是文学艺术宝库中璀璨的明珠。适用范围甚广。对联起源悠久,说法不一。从哲理层面看,中国哲学中有阴阳二元观念,所谓"太极生两仪",一阴一阳之谓道",把世界万事万物分为相互对称的阴阳两半,在思维本质上又相通,这是古代中国人世界观的基础。太极两仪生四象,春宵一刻值千金。无所不在对立统一的阴阳观念,成为一种民族的集体无意识,这些可谓对联发端的深层基础。楹联写作的核心问题是创造意境。对联是中国文化的一张名片,是诗中之诗,使楹联的普及与提高达到一个新阶段,上到一个新水平,是摆在我们面前的一个艰巨而光荣的任务。