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31.
We introduce a new probabilistic approach to dealing with uncertainty, based on the observation that probability theory does not require that every event be assigned a probability. For a nonmeasurable event (one to which we do not assign a probability), we can talk about only the inner measure and outer measure of the event. In addition to removing the requirement that every event be assigned a probability, our approach circumvents other criticisms of probability-based approaches to uncertainty. For example, the measure of belief in an event turns out to be represented by an interval (defined by the inner and outer measures), rather than by a single number. Further, this approach allows us to assign a belief (inner measure) to an event E without committing to a belief about its negation -E (since the inner measure of an event plus the inner measure of its negation is not necessarily one). Interestingly enough, inner measures induced by probability measures turn out to correspond in a precise sense to Dempster-Shafer belief functions. Hence, in addition to providing promising new conceptual tools for dealing with uncertainty, our approach shows that a key part of the important Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence is firmly rooted in classical probability theory. Cet article présente une nouvelle approche probabiliste en ce qui concerne le traitement de l'incertitude; celle-ci est basée sur l'observation que la théorie des probabilityés n'exige pas qu'une probabilityé soit assignée à chaque événement. Dans le cas d'un événement non mesurable (un événement pour lequel on n'assigne aucune probabilityé), nous ne pouvons discuter que de la mesure intérieure et de la mesure extérieure de l'évenément. En plus d'éliminer la nécessité d'assigner une probabilityéà l'événement, cette nouvelle approche apporte une réponse aux autres critiques des approches à l'incertitude basées sur des probabilityés. Par exemple, la mesure de croyance dans un événement est représentée par un intervalle (défini par la mesure intérieure et extérieure) plutǒt que par un nombre unique. De plus, cette approche nous permet d'assigner une croyance (mesure intérieure) à un événement E sans se compromettre vers une croyance à propos de sa négation -E (puisque la mesure intérieure d'un événement et la mesure intérieure de sa négation ne sont pas nécessairement une seule et unique mesure). II est intéressant de noter que les mesures intérieures qui résultent des mesures de probabilityé correspondent d'une manière précise aux fonctions de croyance de Dempster-Shafer. En plus de constituer un nouvel outil conceptuel prometteur dans le traitement de l'incertitude, cette approche démontre qu'une partie importante de la théorie de l'évidence de Dempster-Shafer est fermement ancrée dans la theorie classique des probabilityés. 相似文献
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Results from applying the model on a sample of contractors, the majority of whom were international and operating in Egypt, reinforces the credibility of the developed methodology, claim the authors. 相似文献
36.
Dmitri E. Nikonov George I. Bourianoff Paolo A. Gargini 《Journal of Superconductivity and Novel Magnetism》2006,19(6):497-513
Quantum limits of power dissipation in spintronic computing are estimated. A computing element composed of a single electron
in a quantum dot is considered. Dynamics of its spin due to external magnetic field and interaction with adjacent dots are
described via the Bloch equations. Spin relaxation due to magnetic noise from various sources is described as coupling to
a reservoir. Resulting dissipation of energy is calculated and is shown to be much less than the thermal limit, ∼kT per bit,
if the rate of spin relaxation is much slower than the switching rate. Clues on how to engineer an energy efficient spintronic
device are provided. 相似文献
37.
E. GLASER 《Journal of microscopy》2005,218(1):1-5
It is well known that the estimation of an object's volume by means of serial cross-sections, the so-called Cavalieri method, yields an unbiased estimate. But by itself it provides no means by which to estimate how precise this estimate is unless the shape of the volume is fully known beforehand. This knowledge can only be partially determined from the serial section information that is collected. Methods have been developed that claim to surmount this difficulty by using the serial section data to create a mathematical model of the volume's shape properties. The model then is used to estimate (predict) the precision of the volume estimate (its CE) from the single set of data available. Unfortunately, the theory underlying the model is flawed and so the model itself amounts to no more than an unsubstantiated guess about the shape of the volume. Therefore, the precision of the volume estimates that one obtains from the method is only as good as the model and this cannot be ascertained from the single set of acquired data. In this letter I explain the inadequacies of the modelling method. I suggest that it be used only with caution, if at all. Instead I suggest two alternative ways to predict the CE, one that is based upon a rule-of-thumb approach to the object's shape, and another that is based upon spectral analysis of the measurement function and that is easy to implement with available computer software. 相似文献
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The mirror effect for word frequency refers to the finding that low-frequency words have higher hit rates and lower false alarm rates than high-frequency words. This result is typically interpreted in terms of conventional signal detection theory (SDT), in which case it indicates that the order of the underlying old item distributions mirrors the order of the new item distributions. However, when viewed in terms of a mixture version of SDT, the order of hits and false alarms does not necessarily imply the same order in the underlying distributions because of possible effects of mixing. A reversal in underlying distributions did not appear for fits of mixture SDT models to data from 4 experiments. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved) 相似文献
40.
The authors present a theory for understanding risk for problem drinking among reservation-dwelling American Indians. The theory offers an overall framework for understanding the risk process for this group. It considers the distinction between factors that influence mean levels of American Indian problem drinking and factors that influence individual differences in American Indian drinking. It proposes important contextual differences between reservation-dwelling American Indians and Caucasians that may help explain the higher mean levels of American Indian problem drinking. The theory further holds that, within the high mean level of problem drinking characteristic of many American Indian reservations, individual differences in problem drinking can be explained by very similar personality and learning factors as those that influence problem-drinking levels for other ethnic groups. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved) 相似文献