Modular analysis and modelling of risk scenarios with dependencies

The risk analysis of critical infrastructures such as the electric power supply or telecommunications is complicated by the fact that such infrastructures are mutually dependent. We propose a modular approach to the modelling and analysis of risk scenarios with dependencies. Our approach may be used to deduce the risk level of an overall system from previous risk analyses of its constituent systems. A custom made assumption-guarantee style is put forward as a means to describe risk scenarios with external dependencies. We also define a set of deduction rules facilitating various kinds of reasoning, including the analysis of mutual dependencies between risk scenarios expressed in the assumption-guarantee style.     

Ontology-driven analysis of UML-based collaborative processes using OWL-DL and CPN

A key ingredient in system and organization modeling is modeling business processes that involve the collaborative participation of different teams within and outside the organization. Recently, the use of the Unified Modeling Language (UML) for collaborative business modeling has been increasing, thanks to its human-friendly visual representation of a rich set of structural and behavioral views, albeit its unclear semantics. In the meantime, the use of the Web Ontology Language (OWL) has also been emerging, thanks to its clearly-defined semantics, hence being amenable to automatic analysis and reasoning, although it is less human friendly than, and also perhaps not as rich as, the UML notation — especially concerning processes, or activities. In this paper, we view the UML and the OWL as being complementary to each other, and exploit their relative strengths. We provide a mapping between the two, through a set of mapping rules, which allow for the capture of UML activity diagrams in an OWL-ontology. This mapping, which results in a formalization of collaborative processes, also sets a basis for subsequent construction of executable models using the Colored Petri Nets (CPN) formalism. For this purpose, we also provide appropriate mappings from OWL-based ontological elements into CPN elements. A case study of a mortgage granting system is described, along with the potential benefits and limitations of our proposal.     

Integrating customer's preferences in the QFD planning process using a combined benchmarking and imprecise goal programming model

Quality function deployment (QFD) is a customer-oriented design tool for developing new or improved products to achieve higher customer satisfaction by integrating various functions of an organization. The engineering characteristics (ECs) affecting the product performances are designed to match the customer attributes (CAs). However, from the viewpoint of the QFD team, product design processes are performed in imprecise environments, and more than one factor must be taken into account in determining the target levels of ECs, especially the limited resources and increased market competition. This paper presents an imprecise goal programming (GP) approach to determine the optimum target levels of ECs in QFD for maximizing customer satisfaction under resource limitation and considerations of market competition. Based on benchmarking data of CAs, the concept of satisfaction functions is utilized to formulate explicitly the customer's preferences and to integrate the competitive analysis of target market into the modelling and solution process. In addition, the relationships linking CAs and ECs and the ECs to each other are integrated by functional relationships. The proposed approach will be illustrated through a car door design example.     

Preliminary evaluation of electroencephalographic entrainment using thalamocortical modelling

Abstract: The concept of linked oscillators in biological control systems has long been established. Frequency entrainment is a predominant explanation behind many biological rhythms. In this paper a preliminary examination of electroencephalographic entrainment is made to survey the possibility and methods of achieving signal entrainment at the highest level of neurological organization and function. A model of the thalamocortical system is employed to generate simulated electroencephalographic signals and is tested in various configurations in the search for entrainment under very simple conditions. Additionally, an analysis of the coupled Van der Pol model of the circadian rhythm controller is performed to identify the possibility of affecting that system with a drastically different coupling input signal. We were able to conclude that overall signal shape can have a significant impact on the entrainment characteristics of the system. Due to the nature of the underlying mathematical structure of the model, by examining the circadian rhythm controller, we found that it is unsuitable for entrainment to an incident entraining signal of much higher frequency.     

Navigational strategies in behaviour modelling

We propose a new method that treats visible human behaviour at the level of navigational strategies. By inferring intentions in terms of known goals, it is possible to explain the behaviour of people moving around within the field of view of a video camera. The approach presented here incorporates models of navigation from within psychology which are both simple and conceptually plausible, whilst providing good results in an event-detection application. The output is in the form of statements involving goals, such as “Agent 25 went to exit 8 via sub-goals 34 and 21” for a given navigational strategy, an image representing the path through the scene, and an overall score for each trajectory. The central algorithm generates all plausible paths through the scene to known goal sites and then compares each path to the agent's actual trajectory thus finding the most likely explanation for their behaviour. Two navigational strategies are examined, shortest path and simplest path. Experimental results are presented for an outdoor car-park and an indoor foyer scene, and our method is found to produce psychologically plausible explanations in the majority of cases. We propose a novel approach to determining the effectiveness of event detection systems, and evaluate the method presented here against this new ground truth. This evaluation method uses human observers to judge the behaviour shown in various video clips, then uses these judgements in correlation with those of the software. We compare the method with a standard machine learning approach based on nearest neighbour. Finally we consider the application of such a system in a binary event-detection or behaviour filtering system.     

The CM-SAF operational scheme for the satellite based retrieval of solar surface irradiance — A LUT based eigenvector hybrid approach

The radiation budget at the earth surface is an essential climate variable for climate monitoring and analysis as well as for verification of climate model output and reanalysis data. Accurate solar surface irradiance data is a prerequisite for an accurate estimation of the radiation budget and for an efficient planning and operation of solar energy systems.This paper describes a new approach for the retrieval of the solar surface irradiance from satellite data. The method is based on radiative transfer modelling and enables the use of extended information about the atmospheric state. Accurate analysis of the interaction between the atmosphere, surface albedo, transmission and the top of atmosphere albedo has been the basis for the new method, characterised by a combination of parameterisations and “eigenvector” look-up tables. The method is characterised by a high computing performance combined with a high accuracy. The performed validation shows that the mean absolute deviation is of the same magnitude as the confidence level of the BSRN (Baseline Surface Radiation Measurement) ground based measurements and significant lower as the CM-SAF (Climate Monitoring Satellite Application Facility) target accuracy of 10 W/m². The mean absolute difference between monthly means of ground measurements and satellite based solar surface irradiance is 5 W/m² with a mean bias deviation of − 1 W/m² and a RMSD (Root Mean Square Deviation) of 5.4 W/m² for the investigated European sites. The results for the investigated African sites obtained by comparing instantaneous values are also encouraging. The mean absolute difference is with 2.8% even lower as for the European sites being 3.9%, but the mean bias deviation is with − 1.1% slightly higher as for the European sites, being 0.8%. Validation results over the ocean in the Mediterranean Sea using shipboard data complete the validation. The mean bias is − 3.6 W/m² and 2.3% respectively. The slightly higher mean bias deviation over ocean is at least partly resulting from inherent differences due to the movement of the ship (shadowing, allocation of satellite pixel). The validation results demonstrate that the high accuracy of the surface solar irradiance is given in different climate regions. The discussed method has also the potential to improve the treatment of radiation processes in climate and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models, because of the high accuracy combined with a high computing speed.     

Combining feature spaces for classification

In this paper we offer a variational Bayes approximation to the multinomial probit model for basis expansion and kernel combination. Our model is well-founded within a hierarchical Bayesian framework and is able to instructively combine available sources of information for multinomial classification. The proposed framework enables informative integration of possibly heterogeneous sources in a multitude of ways, from the simple summation of feature expansions to weighted product of kernels, and it is shown to match and in certain cases outperform the well-known ensemble learning approaches of combining individual classifiers. At the same time the approximation reduces considerably the CPU time and resources required with respect to both the ensemble learning methods and the full Markov chain Monte Carlo, Metropolis-Hastings within Gibbs solution of our model. We present our proposed framework together with extensive experimental studies on synthetic and benchmark datasets and also for the first time report a comparison between summation and product of individual kernels as possible different methods for constructing the composite kernel matrix.     

Estimating body shape of dressed humans

The paper presents a method to estimate the detailed 3D body shape of a person even if heavy or loose clothing is worn. The approach is based on a space of human shapes, learned from a large database of registered body scans. Together with this database we use as input a 3D scan or model of the person wearing clothes and apply a fitting method, based on ICP (iterated closest point) registration and Laplacian mesh deformation. The statistical model of human body shapes enforces that the model stays within the space of human shapes. The method therefore allows us to compute the most likely shape and pose of the subject, even if it is heavily occluded or body parts are not visible. Several experiments demonstrate the applicability and accuracy of our approach to recover occluded or missing body parts from 3D laser scans.