Bayesian inference in disputed authorship: A case study of cognitive errors and a new system for decision support

Bayesian inference provides a formal framework for assessing the odds of hypotheses in light of evidence. This makes Bayesian inference applicable to a wide range of diagnostic challenges in the field of chance discovery, including the problem of disputed authorship that arises in electronic commerce, counter-terrorism and other forensic applications. For example, when two documents are so similar that one is likely to be a hoax written from the other, the question is: Which document is most likely the source and which document is most likely the hoax? Here I review a Bayesian study of disputed authorship performed by a biblical scholar, and I show that the scholar makes critical errors with respect to several issues, namely: Causal Basis, Likelihood Judgment and Conditional Dependency. The scholar’s errors are important because they have a large effect on his conclusions and because similar errors often occur when people, both experts and novices, are faced with the challenges of Bayesian inference. As a practical solution, I introduce a graphical system designed to help prevent the observed errors. I discuss how this decision support system applies more generally to any problem of Bayesian inference, and how it differs from the graphical models of Bayesian Networks.     

On the dissipation process in Bi2Sr2Ca2Cu3O10 tapes and bulk samples with preferential grain orientation in zero external magnetic field

Current-voltage characteristics of Bi₂Sr₂Ca₂Cu₃O₁₀ tapes and bulk samples with preferentially oriented crystallites have been measured in zero applied magnetic field and for temperatures close to the mean-field critical-temperature,T _c0. It was shown that the power-law dependence,V=AI ^a, valid for two-dimensional systems, does not correctly describe the data, which clearly indicate the existence of a finite critical-current density,J _c. The experimentalI-V curves are fitted quite well with the model which attributes the finite critical-current density to the coupling between the CuO₂ double layers. It was found thatJ _c vanishes at a temperature value belowT _c0. This behavior can result from the occurrence of vortex fluctuation-induced layer decoupling and/or from the contribution of entropy to the vortex unbinding process.     

Cubic Bézier approximation of a digitized curve

In this paper we present an efficient technique for piecewise cubic Bézier approximation of digitized curve. An adaptive breakpoint detection method divides a digital curve into a number of segments and each segment is approximated by a cubic Bézier curve so that the approximation error is minimized. Initial approximated Bézier control points for each of the segments are obtained by interpolation technique i.e. by the reverse recursion of De Castaljau's algorithm. Two methods, two-dimensional logarithmic search algorithm (TDLSA) and an evolutionary search algorithm (ESA), are introduced to find the best-fit Bézier control points from the approximate interpolated control points. ESA based refinement is proved to be better experimentally. Experimental results show that Bézier approximation of a digitized curve is much more accurate and uses less number of points compared to other approximation techniques.     

JDZ-1型固态存储雨量器降水量误差成因分析

对JDZ-1型固态存储雨量器与虹吸自记雨量计平行观测资料进行了系统分析,分析了两者存在误差的影响因素。对JDZ-1型固态存储雨量器在北方地区使用过程中存在的问题提出了解决方法,以保证和提高JDZ-1型固态存储雨量器资料质量。     

The operational semantics of user-defined relationships in object oriented database systems

In semantic data models, abstract relationship (e.g. generalization, aggregation, etc.) semantics are defined, specifying how insertion, deletion and modification operations made at a higher level of abstraction can affect the objects abstracted over and vice versa. These semantics, also known as structural constraints, are expressed through so-called update rules. This perspective has been somewhat lost in most object-oriented systems, where user-defined relationships are supported as simple pointers and their semantics are embedded, distributed and replicated within the operations accessing these pointers. This paper inherits and extends the treatment of relationships found in semantic data models to behavioural object-oriented models by presenting an approach to uniformly capture the update rules for user-defined relationships. The stress is not on supporting relationships as first-class objects, but on describing their update rules (or operational semantics) through a set of constructors namely, reaction, anticipation, delegation and exception. The approach has been borne out by an implementation in an active object-oriented database system.     

Models and observations of fcc/bcc interfaces

Whereas models of the structure and periodicity of CSL or near CSL high angle grain boundaries are relatively well developed and have been to some extent verified by experiment, the nature of more general (e.g. fcc/bcc) interfaces is very imperfectly understood. One of the major differences between homo- and heterophase boundaries is the occurrence, in the latter case, of reproducible orientation relationships due to the crystallographic requirements of phase transformation (e.g. a glissile interface for martensitic growth, low energy interfaces for classical nucleation). A review is given of the relationships commonly observed to obtain between fcc and bcc crystals (as well as ordered phases based upon these structures). Within a given relationship, it is possible to use models of the available interfaces to predict their dislocation content; the success of the various approaches is considered. It is shown that the dislocation arrays identified on fcc/bcc boundaries are consistent with the occurrence of a primary structural relaxation, but that the latter does not appear to be complete. Possible reasons for this are discussed, together with the extent to which secondary structural models may be applicable. Attempts to rationalize the observed orientation relationships and morphologies are discussed, and it is pointed out that these all rely on searches for situations of minimum primary misfit, but that the way in which the latter is quantified determines the results of the analyses. Nevertheless, the implication is that the primary misfit does appear to determine the actual behaviour, though no structural or mechanistic conclusions can safely be drawn from this observation.     

A stability classification method and its application to pipelined solution of linear recurrences

A new method of classification for numerical stability of parallel algorithms is proposed based on the theoretical foundation of forward error analysis. It partitions the algorithms according to their asymptotic stability—a measure introduced to relate the limiting behavior of the stability to the size of the problem. Using this method, the stability aspect of the pipelined solution technique for first-order and second-order linear recurrences—the core of a tridiagonal linear equation solver—is studied. In particular, it shows that the pipelined solution method of the first-order linear recurrences has the same degree of stability as the commonly used sequential evaluation algorithms. The stability problems of sequential and pipelined solution methods of the second-order linear recurrences are also studied.     

EXL能谱仪薄样品X线的定量分析

研究了Link公司能谱仪中RTS软件（薄膜定量分析软件）可靠性及适用性。实验结果表明：RTS软件定量分析结果误差较小。但对C、N、O等轻元素定量分析，试样厚度小于1500以下时，结果才比较可靠。     

光盘的出错率分析和研究

本文通过对光存储系统出错特性的分析，研究了一些描述出错特性的主要参数，并且给出了描述出错特性的Ｇｉｌｂｅｒｔ模型及其改进型模型。     

Error handling in a parallel LR substring parser

Parallel parsing is currently receiving attention but there is little discussion about the adaptation of sequential error handling techniques to these parallel algorithms. We describe a noncorrecting error handler implemented with a parallel LR substring parser. The parser used is a parallel version of Cormack's LR substring parser. The applicability of noncorrecting error handling for parallel parsing is discussed. The error information provided for a standard set of 118 erroneous Pascal programs is analysed. The programs are run on the sequential LR substring parser.