Income, Time Effects and Direct Preferences in a Multimodal Choice Context: Application of Mixed RP/SP Models with Non-Linear Utilities

Transport problems typically involve at least two types of constraints, on income and on time. Therefore, the indirect utility function depends either on the income available after having subtracted the cost of the discrete alternative and on the free time left after having worked and travelled by each competing option. In the typical linear-in-the-attributes and in-the-parameters specification, that represents the first grade approximation of the indirect utility function, the effect of income and time constraints cancel out and only the cost and time of the alternatives matter in the comparison between them. From a microeconomic point of view this is equivalent to assume that income and time effects could be disregarded; which is not always the case. To account for these effects the utility function should include second order attributes; however, in non-linear utility functions it may not be easy to distinguish among several effects that could be relevant: direct preferences for good and leisure, and simple interactions between attributes other than income and time effects. This paper analyses these effects from a theoretical point of view focusing on the possible confounding problem in detecting income and time effects. We use a dataset collected for a modal choice context and containing both revealed and stated preference data, and estimate several NL models examining the effect of the different second-order terms on detecting income and time effects. We compared specifications including square cost and time attributes, interactions between time and cost, cost divided by the income available to be spent on free time, and time multiplied by free time. Our results confirm the strong effect of direct preferences for goods and leisure time on choice, and the potential confounding effect between quadratic attributes and other non-linear omitted terms. Finally, we also found that care should be taken in highlighting income and time effects using mixed data sources, since confounding effects can occur when non-linearities are accounted for in both data sets.     

Stable Oxygen and Carbon Isotopic Compositions of Lates stappersii Otoliths from Lake Tanganyika,East Africa

In this study, we measured growth trends in oxygen and carbon isotopic ratios in whole sagittal otoliths from three adult centropomid fish (Lates stappersii) from each of three sub-basins of Lake Tanganyika, East Africa. Sampling density was 20 to 50 samples per otolith. Both δ¹⁸O and δ¹³C values increase with age. The δ¹⁸O data suggest that otoliths were precipitated near the expected equilibrium with the ambient environment (ca. +3.5‰) and support a migration pattern from surface waters during larval stages to deeper waters (40 to 80 m) for mature fish. Relatively high δ¹⁸O values in the southern sub-basin are consistent with cooler temperatures in the region during seasonal upwelling. The δ13C increase from otolith core to edge is large (up to 4‰) and is interpreted as due to ontogenetic changes in diet and contributions from a decrease in the proportion of respired CO₂ incorporated into otolith carbonate as metabolic rates of the fish dropped with maturity. The data seem to successfully reveal life strategy and migration patterns of L. stappersii, document regional differences in lake conditions, and provide a record of temperature within the water column during which the fish lived. Higher resolution studies and analyses of historical samples could be used to constrain modern and past growth patterns, and to reconstruct past temperature gradients and productivity patterns in the lake.     

Law,liability and expert systems

This paper examines some of the possible legal implications of the production, marketing and use of expert systems. The relevance of a legally useful definition of expert systems, comprising systems designed for use both by laymen and professionals, is related to the distinctions inherent in the legal doctrine underlying provision of goods and provision of services. The liability of the sellers and users of, and contributors to, expert systems are examined in terms of professional malpractice as well as product liability. A recurring theme indicates that legislators may be inclined to restrict possibilities of liability suits in order to avoid disincentives to the creation of expert systems.     

Formation of steady state size distribution of precipitates in alloys under cascade-producing irradiation

The effect of coherency loss on the development of precipitate size distribution under cascade-producing irradiation is considered. The nucleation of coherent precipitates, their growth followed by coherency loss and cascade-induced dissolution of large incoherent precipitates can occur simultaneously resulting in formation of a quasi-stationary size distribution of semicoherent precipitates. To describe this process we consider co-evolution of a mixed population of coherent, semicoherent and incoherent precipitates. Mathematically, the problem is formulated as a set of discrete rate equations of nucleation kinetics (the Master equation approach) which is also used for later stages of evolution. To solve the corresponding large set of equations (typically, more than 10⁵ equations) an efficient numerical method is developed. The simulation results obtained for material parameters and irradiation conditions typical for nuclear reactors show that the coherency loss affects considerably evolution of the precipitate population. Under certain irradiation conditions, both in solution-annealed alloys and in aged ones, the mean precipitate size and the number density during prolonged irradiation tend to steady state values, whereas the size distribution function of large precipitates narrows. The width of the quasi-stationary size distribution is controlled by cascade parameters. It was found that the asymptotic quasi-stationary state of the precipitate population may depend on initial state of the alloy.     

热轧带肋钢筋屈服不明显原因分析与探讨

针对涟钢热轧带肋钢筋的屈服不明显现象，从金属的金相组织、人工时效、自然时效、测试方法等方面着手，寻求各因素对钢筋力学性能的影响，并阐述了该异常组织的形成机理及相关因素，指出魏氏体、粒状贝氏体等的存在是造成带肋钢筋性能异常的主要原因，同时对部分屈服不明显的带肋钢筋判定提供了较为科学的依据。     

Identification of gaps in mangrove forests with airborne LIDAR

Mangrove forests change frequently due to disturbances from tropical storms, frost, lightning, and insects. It has been suggested that the death and regeneration of trees in small gaps due to lightning may play a critical role in mangrove forest turnover; however, the large-scale quantification of spatial pattern and areas of gaps is lacking for investigating this issue. Airborne light detection and ranging (LIDAR) technology provides an effective way for identifying gaps by remotely obtaining direct measurements of ground and canopy elevations. A method based on an alternative sequential filter and black top-hat mathematical morphological transformation was developed to extract gap features. Comparison of identified gap polygons with raw LIDAR measurements and field surveys shows that the proposed method successfully extracted gap features in mangrove forests in Everglades National Park. There are 400–500 lightning gaps per square kilometer in mangrove forests at the study sites. The distribution of gap sizes follows an exponential form and the area of gaps with sizes larger than 100 m² account for 55–61% of the total area of gaps. The area of gaps in the mangrove forest in Everglades National Park is about 4–5% of the total forest area and the average gap formation rate is about 0.3% of the total forest area per year, indicating that lightning gaps play an important role in mangrove forest dynamics.     

A novel open-loop high-speed CMOS sample-and-hold

A new open-loop high-speed CMOS sample-and-hold is presented. Based on new method for further reduction of voltage-dependent charge injection, a new CMOS sample-and-hold was designed. Simulation results confirm the effectiveness of this method. Over 10 dB improvement in signal-to-noise ratio, compared to the signal-to-noise ratio of conventional bottom plate sampling S/Hs was achieved with this method. A comparison between newly designed S/H and the bottom-plate sampling S/H is presented.     

薄板坯连铸连轧工艺对铌微合金化高强度钢组织和性能的影响

首先建立薄板坯连铸连轧工艺的试验室模拟技术，并运用该模拟技术，研究薄板坯连铸连轧工艺(CSP)和传统板坯再加热工艺(TRP)两种工艺对铌微合金化高强度钢的显微组织和力学性能的影响。研究结果表明：CSP钢的晶粒细化效果不如TRP钢，两者的平均铁素体晶粒尺寸分别为8．17μm和6．30μm。在CSP试验钢板中铌的析出量较大，特别是在铁素体中细小颗粒的铌的析出物较多，沉淀强化效果较强。CSP试验钢的σ0.5和σb分别较TRP工艺低约40MPa和约25MPa，同时其低温冲击韧性较好，FATT温度较低。     

锌基合金模具的应用及探讨

本文分析了锌基合金模具制造及使用过程中容易出现热裂、翘曲、收缩的问题，并提出了解决这些问题的措施。     

Data mining of resilience indicators

In recent years, the Asia-Pacific region has experienced several financial setbacks, including speculative attacks in 1998 and the SARS outbreak in 2003. Financial stresses of this nature are unanticipated, and not all of the dangers can be predicted by the examination of market information and macroeconomic indicators. The Early Warning System (EWS) that has been adopted by the International Monetary Fund may not be able to predict future financial crises for all possible scenarios, because shocks come in many different forms. To supplement the EWS, this paper proposes a data mining framework to measure the resilience of an economy. The resilience framework does not predict a crisis, but rather assesses the current state of health of an economy and its ability to withstand a financial shock should one occur. The framework is based on a feedback system consisting of two stages. The first stage assigns a resilience score to each economy based on a fuzzy logic scoring scheme that is built on the ambiguous reasoning of experts. The second stage uses the classification tree approach to estimate thresholds for each economic indicator, and examines the quality of the fuzzy score. The result from the second stage is then passed back to the first stage as feedback. The final result is obtained when the feedback system reaches its equilibrium state. The proposed resilience framework is applied to the external-sector and the public-sector economies of several countries to illustrate its applicability.