Generation and selection of likely interpretations during plan recognition in task-oriented consultation systems

This paper presents a mechanism which infers a user's plans from his/her utterances by directing the inference process towards the more likely interpretations of a speaker's statements among many possible interpretations. Our mechanism uses Bayesian theory of probability to assess the likelihood of an interpretation, and it complements this assessment by taking into consideration two aspects of an interpretation: its coherence and its information content. The coherence of an interpretation is determined by the relationships between the different statements in the discourse. The information content of an interpretation is a measure of how well defined the interpretation is in terms of the actions to be performed on the basis of this interpretation. This measure is used to guide the inference process towards interpretations with higher information content. The information content of an interpretation depends on the specificity and the certainty of the inferences in it, where the certainty of an inference depends on the knowledge on which the inference is based. Our mechanism has been developed for use in task-oriented consultation systems. The particular domain that we have chosen for exploration is that of travel booking.     

磷酸盐激光玻璃中铂颗粒密度与氧化还原平衡关系的研究

用吸收光谱法研究了Ｒ２Ｏ—ＢａＯ—Ｐ２Ｏ５系统磷酸盐激光玻璃中铂颗粒密度与铭的氧化还原平衡的关系。结果表明，玻璃中铂颗粒密度随平衡向右移动而减小；玻璃中平衡随熔炼气氛中氧分压增大、熔炼温度升高而向右移动，当足够大时，铂颗粒不能形成。     

Finances and Well-Being: A Dynamic Equilibrium Model of Resources.

This study of 513 Dutch farmers tested a dynamic equilibrium model of resources (an extension of the conservation of resources theory; S. E. Hobfoll, 1989, 1998, 2001). With structural equation modeling, the advantages of a 3-wave longitudinal design were comprehensively used, such as addressing bidirectional causal effects and within-individual vs. between-individual change. This allowed for a careful analysis of the management function of resources in the stress process. Results showed that well-being had stronger within-person stability than finances. Increased levels of financial problems temporarily increased psychological distress but not self-reported illness. Conversely, farmers with higher stable baselines of psychological distress also had higher baselines of self-reported illness and experienced more negative changes in their financial situation. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

An evaluation system of the setting up of predictive maintenance programmes

Predictive Maintenance can provide an increase in safety, quality and availability in industrial plants. However, the setting up of a Predictive Maintenance Programme is a strategic decision that until now has lacked analysis of questions related to its setting up, management and control. In this paper, an evaluation system is proposed that carries out the decision making in relation to the feasibility of the setting up. The evaluation system uses a combination of tools belonging to operational research such as: Analytic Hierarchy Process, decision rules and Bayesian tools. This system is a help tool available to the managers of Predictive Maintenance Programmes which can both increase the number of Predictive Maintenance Programmes set up and avoid the failure of these programmes. The Evaluation System has been tested in a petrochemical plant and in a food industry.     

Reliability-based failure cause assessment of collapsed bridge during construction

Until now, in many forensic reports, the failure cause assessments are usually carried out by a deterministic approach so far. However, it may be possible for the forensic investigation to lead to unreasonable results far from the real collapse scenario, because the deterministic approach does not systematically take into account any information on the uncertainties involved in the failures of structures.Reliability-based failure cause assessment (reliability-based forensic engineering) methodology is developed which can incorporate the uncertainties involved in structural failures and structures, and to apply them to the collapsed bridge in order to identify the most critical failure scenario and find the cause that triggered the bridge collapse. Moreover, to save the time and cost of evaluation, an algorithm of automated event tree analysis (ETA) is proposed and possible to automatically calculate the failure probabilities of the failure events and the occurrence probabilities of failure scenarios. Also, for reliability analysis, uncertainties are estimated more reasonably by using the Bayesian approach based on the experimental laboratory testing data in the forensic report. For the applicability, the proposed approach is applied to the Hang-ju Grand Bridge, which collapsed during construction, and compared with deterministic approach.     

Estimation of the Equilibrium Constants for Pure Hydrocarbons

Equilibrium constants of pure hydrocarbons in different temperatures and pressures are necessary in most engineering calculations. A general formula has been developed to calculate equilibrium value for a group of hydrocarbons which have the general formula C_n H_2n+2 and C_n H_2n based on three parameters. This formula is a function of reduced temperature, reduced pressure, and an acentric factor. It is applied within a wide range of temperatures and pressures. As a result this technique is considered to be useful for the predication of K values of pure hydrocarbons depending on its reduced temperature, reduced pressure, and acentric factor.     

Learning Recursive Bayesian Multinets for Data Clustering by Means of Constructive Induction

This paper introduces and evaluates a new class of knowledge model, the recursive Bayesian multinet (RBMN), which encodes the joint probability distribution of a given database. RBMNs extend Bayesian networks (BNs) as well as partitional clustering systems. Briefly, a RBMN is a decision tree with component BNs at the leaves. A RBMN is learnt using a greedy, heuristic approach akin to that used by many supervised decision tree learners, but where BNs are learnt at leaves using constructive induction. A key idea is to treat expected data as real data. This allows us to complete the database and to take advantage of a closed form for the marginal likelihood of the expected complete data that factorizes into separate marginal likelihoods for each family (a node and its parents). Our approach is evaluated on synthetic and real-world databases.     

Phase equilibria in the system Al-Rh

Methods of differential thermal analysis, x-ray diffraction, microstructural analysis and electron probe microanalysis are used to study alloys of the Al-Rh system over the whole concentration range. It is established that the phase of equiatomic composition AlRh melts congruently at 2060°C and it has an extended range of homogeneity (45.1–54.2 at.% Rh). The solubility of aluminum in rhodium reaches 9 at.%, decreasing to 6 at.% at 850°C. Coordinates are determined for the eutectic point l ⇆ AlRh + 〈Rh〉 as 70 at.% Rh and 1715°C. The existence of intermediate phases, their crystal structure, and also the method of forming phases in the field of composition rich in aluminum given in publications are confirmed. __________ Translated from Poroshkovaya Metallurgiya, Nos. 5–6(449), pp. 48–56, May–June, 2006.