Optimal Control of Solar Sludge Dryers

Optimal control (OC) methodology is used to develop a control policy for a batch-operated solar sludge dryer with ventilation as the dominant control. Batch performance criteria and instantaneous optimization criteria are developed for two economic environments: quota limited and capital limited. The general formulation, as well as simplifications resulting from the multiplicative form of the evaporation (drying) rate model, are presented. The multiplicative form results in a single constant number, called here “control intensity,” which is used to guide the on-line control decisions. These decisions turn out to be independent of the dry solids content (DSC) of the sludge. Further simplification, by assuming a strictly constant weather, is used to demonstrate the general effects of the economic and physical (weather) environment on the solution.

The OC approach is used to address, via simulation under realistic weather conditions, several design, operation, and pricing problems. In particular, the following have been considered: sizing of the ventilation fans, determination of a fair fee for sludge disposal, finding the best final DSC, and evaluating the effect of the price of electricity. Regarding the particular location represented by the data, it has been shown that the installed capacity of the ventilation fans should be increased and that there seems to be sufficient economic incentive for solar drying.     

Bayesian inference in disputed authorship: A case study of cognitive errors and a new system for decision support

Bayesian inference provides a formal framework for assessing the odds of hypotheses in light of evidence. This makes Bayesian inference applicable to a wide range of diagnostic challenges in the field of chance discovery, including the problem of disputed authorship that arises in electronic commerce, counter-terrorism and other forensic applications. For example, when two documents are so similar that one is likely to be a hoax written from the other, the question is: Which document is most likely the source and which document is most likely the hoax? Here I review a Bayesian study of disputed authorship performed by a biblical scholar, and I show that the scholar makes critical errors with respect to several issues, namely: Causal Basis, Likelihood Judgment and Conditional Dependency. The scholar’s errors are important because they have a large effect on his conclusions and because similar errors often occur when people, both experts and novices, are faced with the challenges of Bayesian inference. As a practical solution, I introduce a graphical system designed to help prevent the observed errors. I discuss how this decision support system applies more generally to any problem of Bayesian inference, and how it differs from the graphical models of Bayesian Networks.     

Acidic and basic hydrolysis of poly(N‐vinylformamide)

Poly(N‐vinylformamide) (PNVF) was synthesized and hydrolyzed to poly(vinylamine) (PVAm) in both HCl and NaOH solutions. The hydrolysis kinetics and the equilibrium hydrolysis were examined experimentally at different temperatures, polymer concentrations, and acid‐ or base‐to‐amide molar ratios. The hydrolysis kinetics strongly depended on temperature, polymer, and HCl or NaOH concentrations, but showed little dependence on PNVF molecular weight. The acid hydrolysis of PNVF exhibited limited conversions because of the electrostatic repulsion among the cationic amine groups generated during hydrolysis and proton hydrates. In the basic hydrolysis, complete amide conversions were observed when the NaOH/amide molar ratios were greater than unity. The effects of temperature and PNVF concentration on the equilibrium amide conversion appeared to be negligible in both acidic and basic hydrolysis. The equilibrium conversions of base hydrolysis were higher than those of acidic hydrolysis under the same reaction conditions. At NaOH/amide ratios of less than unity, the equilibrium hydrolysis experiments revealed that one base molecule could induce the hydrolysis of more than one amide group. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Appl Polym Sci 86: 3412–3419, 2002     

Search for the upper bound of Bayesian estimates of the parameter in an exponential failure model with two known quantiles of an a priori distribution function

A fast exact algorithm of searching for the upper bound of Bayesian estimates for the parameter of the exponential distribution under the condition that an a priori distribution belongs to the class of all distribution functions with two equal quantiles. This problem arises in analyzing the sensitivity of Bayesian estimates to the choice of an a priori distribution in an exponential failure model. __________ Translated from Kibernetika i Sistemnyi Analiz, No. 1, pp. 90–102, January–February 2007.     

碱-碳酸盐反应热力学讨论

应用热力学方法探讨了温度对碱 碳酸盐反应的影响 ,反应温度升高时 ,反应的推动力减弱。对碱与碳酸盐发生反应生成沉淀时所需碱的浓度以及温度的影响进行了讨论。 2 98K ,pH≥ 10 .6时 ,碱 碳酸盐反应能发生 ,反应温度升高 ,碱 碳酸盐反应所需碱的浓度相应增大。对氢氧化锂与碳酸盐反应可能生成碳酸锂沉淀时溶液的碱的浓度作了计算 ,2 98K ,pH≥ 13.1时 ,氢氧化锂与碳酸盐反应除生成水镁石和方解石外还能生成碳酸锂沉淀 ,反应温度升高时 ,反应生成碳酸锂沉淀所需碱的浓度变化不大     

Transit smart card data mining for passenger origin information extraction

The automated fare collection(AFC) system,also known as the transit smart card(SC) system,has gained more and more popularity among transit agencies worldwide.Compared with the conventional manual fare collection system,an AFC system has its inherent advantages in low labor cost and high efficiency for fare collection and transaction data archival.Although it is possible to collect highly valuable data from transit SC transactions,substantial efforts and methodologies are needed for extracting such data because most AFC systems are not initially designed for data collection.This is true especially for the Beijing AFC system,where a passenger’s boarding stop(origin) on a flat-rate bus is not recorded on the check-in scan.To extract passengers’ origin data from recorded SC transaction information,a Markov chain based Bayesian decision tree algorithm is developed in this study.Using the time invariance property of the Markov chain,the algorithm is further optimized and simplified to have a linear computational complexity.This algorithm is verified with transit vehicles equipped with global positioning system(GPS) data loggers.Our verification results demonstrated that the proposed algorithm is effective in extracting transit passengers’ origin information from SC transactions with a relatively high accuracy.Such transit origin data are highly valuable for transit system planning and route optimization.     

反倾岩质边坡弯曲倾倒-剪切滑移破坏分析方法研究

目前反倾岩质边坡弯曲倾倒破坏分析方法仍以基于极限平衡理论的悬臂梁模型为主,但大多未考虑坡脚岩层的剪切破坏。为准确评价该类边坡的稳定性,建立考虑坡脚岩层剪切破坏的分析计算方法。首先,根据岩层变形破坏特征,将边坡分为后缘稳定区、中部弯曲倾倒区和前缘剪切区3个区域;其次,建立弯曲倾倒-剪切滑移破坏模式的稳定性分析方法;最后,通过工程实例验证,并进行参数分析。研究结果表明:提出的分析方法与工程实际符合性较好;边坡在倾角较陡、坡角较大时稳定性最差,坡角对边坡稳定性影响大于岩层倾角的影响;岩层厚度及层面内摩擦角增加有利于边坡稳定性,且会扩大坡脚剪切区范围。研究成果对反倾岩质边坡破坏的防治具有实践指导意义。     

Probabilistic heuristic estimates

Though they constitute the major knowledge source in problem-solving systems, no unified theory of heuristics has emerged. Pearl [15] defines heuristics as criteria, methods, or principles for deciding which among several alternative courses of action promises to be the most effective in order to achieve some goal. The absence of a more precise definition has impeded our efforts to understand, utilize, and discover heuristics. Another consequence is that problem-solving techniques which rely on heuristic knowledge cannot be relied upon to act rationally — in the sense of the normative theory of rationality.To provide a sound basis for BPS, the Bayesian Problem-Solver, we have developed a simple formal theory of heuristics, which is general enough to subsume traditional heuristic functions as well as other forms of problem-solving knowledge, and to straddle disparate problem domains. Probabilistic heuristic estimates represent a probabilistic association of sensations with prior experience — specifically, a mapping from observations directly to subjective probabilities which enables the use of theoretically principled mechanisms for coherent inference and decision making during problem-solving. This paper discusses some of the implications of this theory, and describes its successful application in BPS.This research was made possible by support from Heuristicrats, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, and the Rand Corporation.     

Bayesian network based general correspondence retrieval method for depth sensing with single-shot structured light

This study reinvestigated one of the most fundamental problems in structure light depth sensing field: correspondence retrieval of features between patterns and images. We formulate the global optimum correspondence retrieval by maximizing a conditional probability of correspondence given observed features, which is depicted by a Bayesian network. Different from traditional “code-only” based correspondence retrieval methods, the proposed Bayesian network based method exploits the positional correlations of correspondences of neighboring features, namely, the correspondences of poorly detected features are estimated with the aid of the correspondences of well detected features. The method performs especially well on challenging scenes with rich depth variations, abrupt depth changes, edges, etc. Experiments show that the proposed method increase the correspondence accuracy by about 40% on challenging scenes, compared with traditional “code-only” based correspondence retrieval methods.     

Analysis of oceanaut operating performance using an integrated Bayesian network aided by the fuzzy logic theory

Because the oceanaut plays a significant role in safety and capability during manned deep-diving scientific tasks, preventing oceanaut performance decline is of paramount importance. However, the factors responsible for oceanaut performance are almost entirely unexplored. To address the preceding issues, a quantitative method of fuzzy integrated Bayesian network (FIBN) was modeled within the limits of oceanaut operating procedures. To quantify the probabilities of the influencing factors, the probability of each node in the FIBN was calculated using integrated expert judgement, fuzzy logic theory, and Bayesian network. By considering a total of 28 factors related to oceanaut performance in the “Jiaolong” manned submersible, this study found that difficult sampling, long sampling times, cabin equipment failure, oceanaut physical decline, and declining decision-making ability are important factors that affect oceanaut performance. The FIBN proposed in our study fused the qualitative and quantitative methods and can be developed into a versatile tool for analysis of comprehensive systems that contain both static and dynamic factors.Relevance to industryThe results provide a powerful basis for the design of manned submersible and assignment of tasks to oceanauts, while the fuzzy integrated Bayesian network (FIBN) method proposed can be effectively applied to various quantitative assessment fields which direct researchers to deal with analysis problems of complex systems.