Probabilistic heuristic estimates

Though they constitute the major knowledge source in problem-solving systems, no unified theory of heuristics has emerged. Pearl [15] defines heuristics as criteria, methods, or principles for deciding which among several alternative courses of action promises to be the most effective in order to achieve some goal. The absence of a more precise definition has impeded our efforts to understand, utilize, and discover heuristics. Another consequence is that problem-solving techniques which rely on heuristic knowledge cannot be relied upon to act rationally — in the sense of the normative theory of rationality.To provide a sound basis for BPS, the Bayesian Problem-Solver, we have developed a simple formal theory of heuristics, which is general enough to subsume traditional heuristic functions as well as other forms of problem-solving knowledge, and to straddle disparate problem domains. Probabilistic heuristic estimates represent a probabilistic association of sensations with prior experience — specifically, a mapping from observations directly to subjective probabilities which enables the use of theoretically principled mechanisms for coherent inference and decision making during problem-solving. This paper discusses some of the implications of this theory, and describes its successful application in BPS.This research was made possible by support from Heuristicrats, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, and the Rand Corporation.     

Bayesian network based general correspondence retrieval method for depth sensing with single-shot structured light

This study reinvestigated one of the most fundamental problems in structure light depth sensing field: correspondence retrieval of features between patterns and images. We formulate the global optimum correspondence retrieval by maximizing a conditional probability of correspondence given observed features, which is depicted by a Bayesian network. Different from traditional “code-only” based correspondence retrieval methods, the proposed Bayesian network based method exploits the positional correlations of correspondences of neighboring features, namely, the correspondences of poorly detected features are estimated with the aid of the correspondences of well detected features. The method performs especially well on challenging scenes with rich depth variations, abrupt depth changes, edges, etc. Experiments show that the proposed method increase the correspondence accuracy by about 40% on challenging scenes, compared with traditional “code-only” based correspondence retrieval methods.     

Analysis of oceanaut operating performance using an integrated Bayesian network aided by the fuzzy logic theory

Because the oceanaut plays a significant role in safety and capability during manned deep-diving scientific tasks, preventing oceanaut performance decline is of paramount importance. However, the factors responsible for oceanaut performance are almost entirely unexplored. To address the preceding issues, a quantitative method of fuzzy integrated Bayesian network (FIBN) was modeled within the limits of oceanaut operating procedures. To quantify the probabilities of the influencing factors, the probability of each node in the FIBN was calculated using integrated expert judgement, fuzzy logic theory, and Bayesian network. By considering a total of 28 factors related to oceanaut performance in the “Jiaolong” manned submersible, this study found that difficult sampling, long sampling times, cabin equipment failure, oceanaut physical decline, and declining decision-making ability are important factors that affect oceanaut performance. The FIBN proposed in our study fused the qualitative and quantitative methods and can be developed into a versatile tool for analysis of comprehensive systems that contain both static and dynamic factors.Relevance to industryThe results provide a powerful basis for the design of manned submersible and assignment of tasks to oceanauts, while the fuzzy integrated Bayesian network (FIBN) method proposed can be effectively applied to various quantitative assessment fields which direct researchers to deal with analysis problems of complex systems.     

A Network Security Risk Assessment Method Based on a B_NAG Model

Computer networks face a variety of cyberattacks. Most network attacks are contagious and destructive, and these types of attacks can be harmful to society and computer network security. Security evaluation is an effective method to solve network security problems. For accurate assessment of the vulnerabilities of computer networks, this paper proposes a network security risk assessment method based on a Bayesian network attack graph (B_NAG) model. First, a new resource attack graph (RAG) and the algorithm E-Loop, which is applied to eliminate loops in the B_NAG, are proposed. Second, to distinguish the confusing relationships between nodes of the attack graph in the conversion process, a related algorithm is proposed to generate the B_NAG model. Finally, to analyze the reachability of paths in B_NAG, the measuring indexs such as node attack complexity and node state transition are defined, and an iterative algorithm for obtaining the probability of reaching the target node is presented. On this basis, the posterior probability of related nodes can be calculated. A simulation environment is set up to evaluate the effectiveness of the B_NAG model. The experimental results indicate that the B_NAG model is realistic and effective in evaluating vulnerabilities of computer networks and can accurately highlight the degree of vulnerability in a chaotic relationship.     

Solid-liquid phase equilibria of benzene + 2-methyl-2-propanol system under high pressures

Solid-liquid phase equilibria of the benzene + 2-methyl-2-propanol system have been investigated at temperatures from 278 to 323 K and pressures up to 300 MPa using a high-pressure optical vessel. The uncertainties of the measurements of temperature, pressure and composition are within ±0.1 K, ±0.5 MPa, and ±0.001 mole fraction, respectively. The freezing pressure at a constant composition increases monotonously with pressure. The eutectic point shifts to a higher temperature and benzene-rich composition with increasing pressure. In order to describe the pressure-temperature-composition relation of high-pressure solid-liquid phase equilibria, a new simple equation has been proposed as follows:

An experimental study of the thermodynamic properties of 1,1-difluoroethane

Experimental vapor pressures andP--T data of an important alternative refrigerant, 1, 1-difluoroethane (HFC-152a), have been measured by means of a constant-volume method coupled with expansion procedures. SixtyP--T data were measured along eight isochores in a range of temperaturesT from 330 to 440 K, at pressuresP from 1.6 to 9.3 MPa, and at densities from 51 to 811 kg·m^–3. Forty-six vapor pressures were also measured at temperatures from 320 K to the critical temperature. The uncertainties of the temperature and pressure measurements are within ±7mK and ±2kPa, respectively, while the uncertainty of the density values is within ±0.1%. The purity of the sample used is 99.9 wt%. On the basis of the measurements along each isochore, five saturation points were determined and the critical pressure was determined by correlating the vapor-pressure measurements. The second and third virial coefficients for temperatures from 360 to 440 K have also been determined.     

A refined evaluation of the gas-phase water-dimerization equilibrium constant within non-rigid BJH- and MCY-type potentials

The flexible BJH- and flexible or semiflexible MCY-type water-water potentials (4 potential modifications in each nonrigid family, i.e., altogether 12 potentials) are used for evaluation of the gas-phase water-dimerization equilibrium constants. The potential-energy term is adjusted for best reproduction of the available experimental equilibrium constants. An independent test using the experimental steam second-virial coefficient isotopic difference shows that the adjustment also improves the computational evaluation of the difference. A set of dimerization equilibrium constants is suggested over a wide temperature interval (based on the BJH/G, MCY-B, or MCYB potential modifications). The best reproduction of the experimental equilibrium constants (in conjunction with good performance for the second-virial isotopic difference) is produced by the BJH/G potential. The results are applicable to various problems such as the formation of water clusters in large-scale natural and artificial water jets (e.g., hydrogen-oxygen rocket motors, orbital capsule water dumps, water ejection from a comet nucleus) or in atmospheric chemistry.     

ZigBee网络路径均衡算法在供水系统的仿真研究

研究城市供水系统的高效路径均衡算法。供水系统根据供水请求调控供水路径,在早晚城市用水高峰期供水请求突增,待均衡的供水路径任务骤增加大了均衡计算量,传统方法只选用较少的高层节点作为均衡节点,高层节点因超额的工作量不能承担起均衡任务的突增,造成网络数据传输路径均衡的效率较低。为了解决这一难题,提出基于开销能量的供水系统ZigBee网络路径均衡算法。通过建立供水系统各节点能量消耗代价开销模型,在模型中根据开销能量将路径均衡控制的任务分派到网络的各个节点中共同分担完成路径均衡的任务,避免了只利用少数高层节点均衡而带来的均衡效率不高的问题。仿真结果表明,改进方法能够高效完成供水系统路径的均衡控制,取得了满意的结果。     

基于交通信息和配电网全成本电价的电动汽车充电负荷调度方法

电动汽车的集中充电行为会在一定程度造成交通拥堵,为解决这一问题,综合考虑交通信息和电网信息,基于边际定价理论得到配电网节点边际电价和交通阻塞成本,构建电动汽车充电的全成本电价模型。在此基础上,提出一种考虑交通信息和配电网全成本电价的电动汽车充电负荷调度方法。通过仿真算例验证,该方法在满足电动汽车充电需求的同时可以有效缓解交通拥堵。     

证券市场中庄家与散户间的确定性微分博弈

基于确定性微分博弈理论,建立了一种庄家与散户间的连续时间的博弈模型.首先将所有散户作为一个整体与庄家进行博弈,以博弈双方持股率的动态关系作为动态系统方程,并以此构建了一个确定性微分博弈模型; 然后运用开环纳什均衡和反馈纳什均衡分别求解出满足共态函数的常微分方程组和满足价值函数的Issacs - Bellman偏微分方程,以此得到庄家与散户博弈的开环纳什均衡策略和反馈纳什均衡策略.该结果可为金融监管部门监管证券市场和证券市场投资者买卖股票提供参考.