贝叶斯方法的污染源季节性排放量控制和管理

为保证水质功能区内水质达标,必须对区域内污染源排放量进行控制和管理。选取松花江哈尔滨段主要污染指标COD和氨氮为研究对象,利用一维水质模型构建各污染源排放量与河流水质之间的关系。用贝叶斯方法估计水质模型中的重要参数综合降解系数（ k）,根据估计时期的不同,分别建立季节模型和年度模型,用以控制既定水质目标下各污染源排放量。结果表明,季节模型的预测效果较好,能更好地表达水中污染物的综合降解浓度。应用季节模型和贝叶斯方法开展季节性水质管理工作,可以提供给决策者更多的信息,有助于对污染源排放量的不确定性进行量化和评估。此外,通过对比各污染源的削减水平,可得各污染源在不同时期的控制权重,从而使管理者在不同时期有针对性地对污染源排放量进行控制。贝叶斯方法在污染源排放量控制中的应用可以增强水质模型的预测能力,有效提高水质管理的水平。     

Risk reduction in Sechahun iron ore deposit by geological boundary modification using multiple indicator Kriging

Uncertainty on the geological contacts and the block volumes of the models along boundaries is often a major part of the global uncertainty of reserve estimation.This work introduces a geostatistical technique that has been developed and tested in an iron ore deposit at Bafq mining district,in central Iran,and that,based on a probability criterion,helps to objectively model the geometry of this iron ore deposit.The main problem in reserve estimation of this ore body is its geometrical modeling and uncertainty in geological boundaries.This work deals with the geostatistical method of multiple indicator kriging,which is used to determine the real boundaries of ore body in different categories.This approach has potential to improve project performance and decrease operational risk.For this purpose,the ore body is separated into two categories including rich iron zone （w（Fe）〉45%） and poor iron zone （20%〈w（Fe）〈45%）.It significantly benefits to decrease the risk of reserve evaluation in the deposit.This case study also highlights the value of multiple indicator kriging as a tool for estimates the position of grade boundaries within the deposit.Comparison of the resultant probability maps with the real ore/waste contacts on the extracted levels shows that the first indicator model could separate the whole ore body （poor plus rich） from the waste zone by probability of more than 0.35,which concludes the total reserve of 53 million tons.The second indicator model applied to separate the rich and poor domains and the results show that the blocks with the estimated probability of equal to or more than 0.4 lay within the rich ore zone consisting of 15.8 million tons reserve.     

含未知参数和输出不确定性的Lipschitz非线性系统自适应观测器设计

对含未知参数且输出带有不确定性的Lipschitz非线性系统,本文提出了一种自适应观测器的设计方法。当该系统输出的不确定性部分满足Lipschitz条件时,本文给出了系统观测器的结构形式,通过黎卡提方程和矩阵不等式的求解给出观测器增益矩阵的选取方法和参数估计的自适应律, 基于Lyapunov方法证明系统的状态估计误差是一致有界的。仿真结果验证了提出的自适应观测器设计的有效性。     

交流电风扇能效检测方法探讨

针对GB/T 13380-2007《交流电风扇和调速器》中有关交流电风扇能效检测的方法以及所要求的检测系统,对检测所用设备的影响进行分析,通过对检测结果的计算,最终得到测量结果的不确定度,以分析、评估检测结果的可靠性.最后根据现有实验室水平提出了对检测设备改进措施的建议.     

粉末冶金涡轮盘寿命稳健性分析与设计

基于限界不确定性原理和方法，对粉末冶金涡轮盘寿命进行稳健性分析与设计。首先，系统给出了分析方法：结合区间有限元方法，给出了在给定参数限界不确定性时，FGH95材料粉末冶金盘寿命的限界(上下限)。其次，分析了在满足粉末冶金盘设计寿命(以4000周次为例)时，各随机变量所要求的限界(偏差)范围和组合取值范围。此方法克服了经典可靠性理论对随机变量分布要求的严格性，适于工程应用，为盘的质量控制提供明确的指导和依据。     

扭转试验机扭矩测量结果不确定度的评定

对WNJ-1000Nm微机控制扭转试验机的扭矩测量不确定度的来源进行了讨论，并对不同测量点扭矩的测量不确定度进行了评定，最终给出了扩展不确定度。     

Design of forging process variables under uncertainties

Forging is a complex nonlinear process that is vulnerable to various manufacturing anomalies, such as variations in billet geometry, billet/die temperatures, material properties, and workpiece and forging equipment positional errors. A combination of these uncertainties could induce heavy manufacturing losses through premature die failure, final part geometric distortion, and reduced productivity. Identifying, quantifying, and controlling the uncertainties will reduce variability risk in a manufacturing environment, which will minimize the overall production cost. In this article, various uncertainties that affect the forging process are identified, and their cumulative effect on the forging tool life is evaluated. Because the forging process simulation is time-consuming, a response surface model is used to reduce computation time by establishing a relationship between the process performance and the critical process variables. A robust design methodology is developed by incorporating reliability-based optimization techniques to obtain sound forging components. A case study of an automotive-component forging-process design is presented to demonstrate the applicability of the method.     

机械多体系统运动功能可靠性研究

机械多体系统都存在不确定性问题,设计公差、装配误差、环境温度、摩擦磨损等因素使得机械系统具有不确定性.故机械多体系统的动力学响应也具有不确定性,因此有必要在系统建模时考虑不确定性参数因素的影响.文章提出采用机械多体系统运动功能可靠性的概念对动力学响应进行可靠性评价.机械多体系统运动功能可靠性定义为机械系统的某些关键部件的运动学参量满足预定容许范围的概率,这些参量包括位置、方向、速度、加速度等.文章还给出了常用运动功能可靠性的定义与计算方法.运动功能可靠性可用于评价机械系统的运动精度和实现特定运动功能的能力,并有助于指导机械系统的结构设计与优化.     

测量不确定度与误差的区别及在评定中应注意的问题

介绍了测量不确定度与测量误差的区别以及在评定中应注意的几个问题。文中结合当前国际上的一些动态就可忽略的不确定度来源、标准差的安全因子、A类评定和B类评定的应用、Up和U的选用、测量不确定度评定的简化建议等问题进行了讨论。