Dempster-Shafer证据理论在目标意图预测中的应用

为了准确对目标意图进行预测,以便我方及时合理地作出战术决策,采用D-S证据理论对目标意图进行预测。首先提取出影响目标意图预测的各个态势因素,然后分析每个因素的影响效果。在此基础上建立目标意图预测的数学模型,利用D-S合成法则将所有因素的影响进行综合,并计算出各个可能命题的概率赋值并给出相应决策。最后,通过仿真实例验证了该方法在目标意图预测中的可行性和实用性。     

改进Informer网络的风电功率短期预测

准确预测风电功率对于提高电力系统的效率和安全性具有重要意义, 而风能的间歇性和随机性特点导致风电功率难以准确预测. 因此, 提出一种改进Informer的风电功率预测模型PCI-Informer (PATCH-CNN-IRFFN-Informer). 将序列数据划分为子序列级补丁, 并进行特征提取和整合, 提高模型对序列数据的处理能力和效果; 采用多尺度因果卷积自注意力机制, 实现多尺度局部特征融合, 提高模型对局部信息的理解和建模能力; 引入反向残差前馈网络 (IRFFN), 增强模型对局部结构信息的提取和保留能力. 某风电场数据实验结果表明, 与主流预测模型相比, PCI-Informer模型在不同预测步长下均取得了更好的预测效果, 在MAE指标上相比Informer模型平均降低了11.1%, 有效提高了短期风电功率的预测精度.     

Development of a Mortality Prediction Model in Hospitalised SARS-CoV-2 Positive Patients Based on Routine Kidney Biomarkers

Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a prevalent complication in severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) positive inpatients, which is linked to an increased mortality rate compared to patients without AKI. Here we analysed the difference in kidney blood biomarkers in SARS-CoV-2 positive patients with non-fatal or fatal outcome, in order to develop a mortality prediction model for hospitalised SARS-CoV-2 positive patients. A retrospective cohort study including data from suspected SARS-CoV-2 positive patients admitted to a large National Health Service (NHS) Foundation Trust hospital in the Yorkshire and Humber regions, United Kingdom, between 1 March 2020 and 30 August 2020. Hospitalised adult patients (aged ≥ 18 years) with at least one confirmed positive RT-PCR test for SARS-CoV-2 and blood tests of kidney biomarkers within 36 h of the RT-PCR test were included. The main outcome measure was 90-day in-hospital mortality in SARS-CoV-2 infected patients. The logistic regression and random forest (RF) models incorporated six predictors including three routine kidney function tests (sodium, urea; creatinine only in RF), along with age, sex, and ethnicity. The mortality prediction performance of the logistic regression model achieved an area under receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve of 0.772 in the test dataset (95% CI: 0.694–0.823), while the RF model attained the AUROC of 0.820 in the same test cohort (95% CI: 0.740–0.870). The resulting validated prediction model is the first to focus on kidney biomarkers specifically on in-hospital mortality over a 90-day period.     

Identification of Spliceogenic Variants beyond Canonical GT-AG Splice Sites in Hereditary Cancer Genes

Pathogenic/likely pathogenic variants in susceptibility genes that interrupt RNA splicing are a well-documented mechanism of hereditary cancer syndromes development. However, if RNA studies are not performed, most of the variants beyond the canonical GT-AG splice site are characterized as variants of uncertain significance (VUS). To decrease the VUS burden, we have bioinformatically evaluated all novel VUS detected in 732 consecutive patients tested in the routine genetic counseling process. Twelve VUS that were predicted to cause splicing defects were selected for mRNA analysis. Here, we report a functional characterization of 12 variants located beyond the first two intronic nucleotides using RNAseq in APC, ATM, FH, LZTR1, MSH6, PALB2, RAD51C, and TP53 genes. Based on the analysis of mRNA, we have successfully reclassified 50% of investigated variants. 25% of variants were downgraded to likely benign, whereas 25% were upgraded to likely pathogenic leading to improved clinical management of the patient and the family members.     

基于极端学习机的MANET移动性预测模型

针对移动自组织网络移动性在管理无线网络带宽资源可用性方面的重要性,为了更好地规划连续服务可用性和有效能源管理以提升网络的整体服务质量,提出了一种基于极端学习机的MANET移动性预测模型。利用ELM对MANET中的任意节点进行建模;假设已知每个移动节点当前的移动性信息（位置、速度和运动方向角度）,以这种方式预测节点未来的位置和相邻节点之间未来的距离;基于几个标准移动性模型,产生更加真实、精确的移动性预测,从而更好地捕捉任意节点直角坐标系之间现有交互/相关性。使用标准移动性模型的仿真结果验证了所提模型的有效性,实验结果表明,提出的预测模型明显改进了传统基于多层感知器的模型,此外,当预测相邻节点之间未来距离时,避免了当前算法对预测精度的限制。     

软件可靠性预测的增强贝叶斯组合模型

针对当前可靠性预测模型的预测精度问题,提出一种增强贝叶斯组合的短期软件可靠性预测模型。该模型以基于小波分解的单个可靠性预测模型作为基本预测模型, 根据当前相邻几个失效时间间隔的预测精度,更新组合模型中各个基本预测模型的权重,解决了贝叶斯组合模型权重计算采用全部历史数据而导致某个基本预测模型权值占主导地位的缺陷,提高了贝叶斯组合模型对软件可靠性的预测精度。实验结果表明,增强贝叶斯组合预测模型的预测精度不仅优于单一的预测方法,而且也优于传统的软件组合预测模型,能显著提高软件可靠性预测的精度和模型对数据的适应性。     

基于随机摄动粒子滤波器的故障预报算法

针对粒子滤波算法在故障预报中的大计算量和粒子退化问题,提出一种基于随机摄动粒子滤波器的故障预报算法.当粒子退化严重时,对粒子用随机摄动方式进行再采样,一方面可改进样本的多样性,缓解粒子退化;另一方面可缩短再采样时间,减少计算量,从而提高粒子滤波算法的跟踪能力.仿真结果表明该算法可行,能及时准确地对系统故障进行预报.     

CFA图像无损压缩神经网络预测器的设计

论文将神经网络引入预测器设计中,实现了一个用于贝尔模板自然图像无损压缩的神经网络预测器。该预测器含有两个隐含层,具有很强的非线性预测能力,可直接对贝尔模板类型的图像进行无损压缩。为了提高预测精度,在CFA数据的因果邻域像素中实现了边缘检测,并将其应用到预测器中,实验表明该边缘检测方法简单有效。     

孤立点检测改进径向基神经网络动态预测模型

提出一种基于凝聚层次聚类消除孤立点的新方法,借助聚类树识别孤立点。去除孤立点后,利用RBF网络建立动态预测模型,实验结果表明,网络的训练和泛化性能较消除孤立点前有明显提高。说明凝聚层次聚类方法用在孤立点检测方面是有效可行的,消除孤立点后建立的模型收敛速度快,泛化能力更优。     

混凝土结构钢筋脱钝的随机可靠度分析

根据混凝土临界氯离子浓度和氯离子扩散系数与水灰比、环境温度等的关系式,计算出不同条件下受氯盐侵蚀混凝土结构50年内钢筋表面的氯离子浓度。在分析钢筋混凝土结构钢筋表面氯离子浓度随服役年限关系的基础上,用Monte Carlo方法对钢筋脱钝的随机可靠度进行分析。对保护层厚度、水灰比和环境温度等随机变量对海工混凝土结构钢筋脱钝概率的影响进行探讨。