Hybrid Approach for Addressing Uncertainty in Risk Assessments

Parameter uncertainty is a major aspect of the model-based estimation of the risk of human exposure to pollutants. The Monte Carlo method, which applies probability theory to address model parameter uncertainty, relies on a statistical representation of available information. In recent years, other uncertainty theories have been proposed as alternative approaches to address model parameter uncertainty in situations where available information is insufficient to identify statistically representative probability distributions, due in particular to data scarcity. The simplest such theory is possibility theory, which uses so-called fuzzy numbers to represent model parameter uncertainty. In practice, it may occur that certain model parameters can be reasonably represented by probability distributions, because there are sufficient data available to substantiate such distributions by statistical analysis, while others are better represented by fuzzy numbers (due to data scarcity). The question then arises as to how these two modes of representation of model parameter uncertainty can be combined for the purpose of estimating the risk of exposure. This paper proposes an approach (termed a hybrid approach) which combines Monte Carlo random sampling of probability distribution functions with fuzzy calculus. The approach is applied to a real case of estimation of human exposure, via vegetable consumption, to cadmium present in the surficial soils of an industrial site located in the north of France. The application illustrates the potential of the proposed approach, which allows the uncertainty affecting model parameters to be represented in a way that is consistent with the information at hand. Also, because the hybrid approach takes advantage of the “rich” information provided by probability distributions, while retaining the conservative character of fuzzy calculus, it is believed to hold value in terms of a “reasonable” application of the precautionary principle.     

Probabilistic Strength Estimates and Reliability of Damaged Parallel Wire Cables

Cable reliability analysis involves the combined evaluation of cable capacity and cable load in a probabilistic manner. Assessment of cable capacity is only possible through visual inspections of the wires, field sampling, laboratory analysis of the degraded wire populations, and analytical techniques. In addition to a brief presentation of cable mechanics and deterministic models that approximate cable strength, this paper discusses inspection methodologies and statistical methods of estimation of the sizes of the degraded wire populations, and wire properties, leading to cable capacities. These capacities are described by probability distributions. The paper also discusses fundamentals of reliability analysis as they apply to bridge cables. Load criteria of present standard specifications (such as AASHTO or other international codes) are not applicable to long-span suspension bridges. The paper discusses criteria of bridge loading and reliability indices for bridge cables. More work is needed in the evaluation of loading for long-span bridges.     

圆盘给料机在韶钢烧结厂的应用

介绍了PDX系列圆盘给料机的结构、性能及其特点，以及该设备在韶钢烧结厂的使用情况，并与老式圆盘给料机进行了比较。     

民族特色词语的英汉互译

语言在其发展演变过程中,逐步具有了鲜明的民族文化色彩。阐述了民族特色词语的可译性,并提出了具体的翻译方法。     

Ti-45Al-10Nb合金的高温氧化行为

研究了Ti—45A1—10Nb(原子分数，％)合金在800-960℃在氧气和空气中的氧化行为．结果表明，该合金具有较好的高温抗氧化性能，其氧化增重速率与铁基耐热不锈钢相似或略优．与Ti—50A1合金相反，Ti-45A1-10Nb合金在空气中的氧化增重速率明显低于在纯氧中的氧化增重速率．X射线衍射与能谱分析表明，Ti-45Al一10Nb合金在氧气中的氧化产物主要有TiO2和Al2O3，但在空气中的氧化产物中有TiN相．这是降低氧化速率的主要原因，同时，合金元素Nb稳定了氧化层中的TiN相，因而提高了合金在空气中的抗氧化性能．     

湿法停炉保护优点多 建议采用YZ—101防腐阻垢剂作为湿法炉保护剂

介绍了湿法炉保护的作用原理,YZ—101防腐阻垢剂的使用方法、注意事项以及使用后所带来的经济效益。     

Foveation-Based Error Resilience and Unequal Error Protection over Mobile Networks

By exploiting new human-machine interface techniques, such as visual eyetrackers, it should be possible to develop more efficient visual multimedia services associated with low bandwidth, dynamic channel adaptation and robust visual data transmission. In this paper, we introduce foveation-based error resilience and unequal error protection techniques over highly error-prone mobile networks. Each frame is spatially divided into foveated and background layers according to perceptual importance. Perceptual importance is determined either through an eye tracker or by manually selecting a region of interest. We attempt to improve reconstructed visual quality by maintaining the high visual source throughput of the foveated layer using foveation-based error resilience and error correction using a combination of turbo codes and ARQ (automatic reQuest). In order to alleviate the degradation of visual quality, a foveation based bitstream partitioning is developed. In an effort to increase the source throughput of the foveated layer, we develop unequal delay-constrained ARQ (automatic reQuest) and rate compatible punctured turbo codes where the punctual pattern of RCPC (rate compatible punctured convolutional) codes in H.223 Annex C is used. In the simulation, the visual quality is significantly increased in the area of interest using foveation-based error resilience and unequal error protection; (as much as 3 dB FPSNR (foveal peak signal to noise ratio) improvement) at 40% packet error rate. Over real-fading statistics measured in the downtown area of Austin, Texas, the visual quality is increased up to 1.5 dB in PSNR and 1.8 dB in FPSNR at a channel SNR of 5 dB.     

两栖装甲装备新型防腐材料的研究

沿海地区特殊海洋环境造成装甲装备的严重腐蚀,为了研制一种新型的耐蚀有机涂层,该文作者研究了有机硅改性环氧树脂的化学反应,并对改性树脂的性能进行了测试分析.结果表明,改性树脂克服了环氧树脂的耐温性差、亲水性强以及盐水渗透率高的性能缺陷,为进一步制备该地区装甲装备防腐涂料奠定基础.     

阜新市细河改造工程坝基渗漏计算及处理效果分析

阜新市细河改造工程由四座橡胶坝和两岸防洪大堤组成，由于堤(坝)基第四系冲洪积层广泛发育，存在渗漏同题。合理选择施工处理方案，是工程成功的关键。作者根据场区不同的地质条件环境条件采取有针对性的不同处理方案，既解决了防渗问题又缩短了施工工期，降低工程造价，取得了很好的经济效益和社会效益。     

金属包覆平板波导模式特性的有限元法分析

采用有限元法（FEM）分析了具有复数折射率的金属包覆介质波导的模折射率与模场分布情况。计算了具有损耗层的6层介质平板波导模折射率，并与解析解比较，二者有较好的一致性；分析了金属包覆3层平板波导中TM模折射率与波导芯厚度的变化关系，计算了金属包覆5层平板波导中TM模折秧经与金属层厚度的变化关系，并结合对模场分布的分析对模式进行了定性判断，给出了其模式演变过程。