Different insights for improving part and system reliability obtained from exactly same DFOM “failure numbers”

Techniques for improving the reliability and maintainability of both nonrepairable and repairable items can be suggested by failure data analysis. It is shown that a given set of failure numbers leads to very different improvement strategies when the numbers are the times-between-successive-failures of one or more repairable items, rather than the times-to-failure of nonrepairable items. Since this should have been obvious more than 50 years ago, at the onset of formal reliability engineering activities, several reasons are proffered for the widespread and protracted misinterpretation of even the most basic—and simple!—conceptual and practical differences between nonrepairable and repairable items.     

煤代油方式的经济性分析

对两种煤代油方式——水煤浆和煤制混合煤气进行了燃料价格、设备投资及运行费用的分析对比。结果表明，两种代油方法均有可观的经济效益，燃料费用可分别节约52．4％和45．2％。如果原燃油工业炉窑由于工艺需要已装有除尘设备而又可用产生的蒸汽做雾化剂时，则水煤浆代油更具有经济优势。     

Extracting Modes of Constrained Structure with Elastic Supports from Free Test Data

The dynamic flexibility (DF) and improved dynamic flexibility (IDF) methods can be applied to extract constrained structural modes from free-free modal test data. The residual flexibility method is also good for boundaries of constrained structure with rigid supports. Under elastic support boundary conditions both the DF and residual flexibility methods cannot produce accurate results. This paper expands the previously published IDF method to become a more general approach for structural design engineers. A new method called the general dynamic flexibility (GDF) method has been developed in this paper to extract constrained structural modes from free test data. The GDF method can always be applied as follows: (1) when the boundary support stiffness is very stiff, the GDF method can accurately obtain results from rigid support as by Liu et al. in 2001 and Zhang and Wei in 2003; (2) when the support stiffness is soft, the present method can produce results similar to those free-free modal parameters measured by hanging structures using rubber band; (3) when the support stiffness is zero, the method can reproduce true free-free modal parameters; and (4) when the support stiffness has any finite values, the GDF method can also achieve satisfactory results for engineering use. The algorithm included in the GDF method converges rapidly and is numerically stable in the analysis. This feature is very practical for many engineering applications for using the GDF method.     

行政权力腐败的模型分析及治理对策

腐败是与政府行政权力相伴生的痼疾，既是一个历史现象又是一个国际现象。贪污腐败和寻租腐败是委托一代理模型中最典型的腐败方式，文章在此基础上对贪污腐败和寻租腐败进行成本一收益分析和市场均衡分析，并探讨治理行政权力腐败的有效途径。     

Significance of the elastic peak stress evaluated by FE analyses at the point of singularity of sharp V-notched components

The paper presents an expression useful to estimate the notch stress intensity factor (NSIF) from finite element analyses carried out by using a mesh pattern with a constant element size. The evaluation of the NSIF from a numerical analysis of the local stress field usually requires very refined meshes and then large computational effort. The usefulness of the presented expression is that (i) only the elastic peak stress numerically evaluated at the V‐notch tip is needed and no longer the whole stress–distance set of data; (ii) the adopted meshes are rather coarse if compared to those necessary for the evaluation of the whole local stress field. The proposed expression needs the evaluation of a virtual V‐notch tip radius, i.e. the radius which would produce the same elastic peak stress than that calculated by FEM at the sharp V‐notch tip by means of a given mesh pattern. Once such a radius has been theoretically determined for a given geometry, the expression can be applied in a wide range of notch depths and opening angles.     

Finite-element analysis and experimental study on tensile fatigue behaviour of bitumen–stone adhesion

Tensile fatigue behaviours of bitumen–stone adhesion were investigated using a dynamic mechanics analyser under stress‐controlled mode at two temperatures of 5 and 25°C and various controlled‐stress levels. Failure characteristics including interfacial failure and cohesive failure were examined using image analysis of fracture surfaces. Finite‐element analysis on stress distributions was conducted under different temperatures, film thickness and interfacial bonding conditions. A Coulomb–Mohr like criterion in combination with shear and normal stresses is proposed to deal with the extreme thin adhesive layer, which can be further simplified into an adhesive zone without significant loss of accuracy for stress analysis.     

Developing Cost Response Models for Company-Level Cost Flow Forecasting of Project-Based Corporations

The difficulty in applying the standard curve (S-curve) and cost-schedule integration (CSI) techniques for company-level cost flow forecasting in a project-based industry is the prerequisite of forecasting future unknown individual projects and contract classifications. By analyzing cost flows at the company level through a pool of macroeconomic and internal financial data, this paper proposes an innovative approach to firm-specific model estimation. First, a series of data transformations introduce linear relationships between cost, macroeconomic, and internal financial variables. Second, multivariate regression analysis is employed for initial model building. Third, for the purposes of model restructuring, a subsequent application of Yule–Walker estimates and incomplete principal component analysis is used. This paper uses a sample of four project-based construction firms to demonstrate model performance. Using this methodology, mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) values of the forecasting models range from 0.27 to 0.60%. As such, the transformed cost, macroeconomic, internal financial data could strongly predict company-level cost flow forecasting. While converting the predicted cumulative cost data to periodic cost flows, the MAPE values were augmented, ranging from 7.04 to 17.55%, thus, requiring future research.     

Free-Edge and Ply Cracking Effect in Angle-Ply Laminated Composites Subjected to In-Plane Loads

This paper presents a semianalytical method for the prediction of interlaminar stresses and displacements near the free edges and ply cracks in general angle-ply laminates subjected to biaxial extensions and/or in plane shear deformation. The method is based on a state space representation of the three-dimensional equations of elasticity. Numerical solutions are obtained by using layer refinement in the through thickness direction and Fourier series expansion in the other directions. By this approach, an angle-ply laminate may be composed of an arbitrary number of monoclinic layers and each layer may have different material property and thickness. This method guarantees continuous fields of all interlaminar stresses across interfaces between material layers. Numerical results are compared with those obtained from other methods. It is found that the theory provides a satisfactory approximation to the stress singularities near the free edges and ply cracks. Numerical solutions for antisymmetric laminates under extension and general laminates under shearing are new in the literature and can be used as benchmarks for validating new models.     

Mining for trigger events with survival analysis

This paper discusses a new application of data mining, quantifying the importance of responding to trigger events with reactive contacts. Trigger events happen during a customer’s lifecycle and indicate some change in the relationship with the company. If detected early, the company can respond to the problem and retain the customer; otherwise the customer may switch to another company. It is usually easy to identify many potential trigger events. What is needed is a way of prioritizing which events demand interventions. We conceptualize the trigger event problem and show how survival analysis can be used to quantify the importance of addressing various trigger events. The method is illustrated on four real data sets from different industries and countries.     

超分子主体化合物在分析化学中的应用研究进展

综述了近年来超分子主体化合物在分析化学领域的应用研究与进展。分别以冠醚、环糊精、杯芳烃、卟啉4类超分子为主体功能化合物的研究进行了详细的评述，并对这几类主体化合物在分析化学中的应用研究进行了展望。