基于批发价格事前和事后决策的供应链合作促销策略研究

针对单一供应商和单一零售商组成的二级供应链系统,构建了批发价格事前和事后决策下的合作促销模型,探讨了批发价格事前和事后决策对合作促销的影响,并求得Stackelber主从博弈下的均衡合作促销策略。研究结果表明,在批发价格事前决策且零售商努力影响需求、或批发价格事后决策且供应商努力影响需求的情形下,合作促销均不是一个有效的激励策略;在批发价格事前决策且供应商努力影响需求的情形下,只有当促销努力成本共担系数小于一定的阈值时,合作促销才是一个有效的激励策略;在批发价格事后决策且零售商努力影响需求的情形下,合作促销始终是有效的激励策略。最后通过算例分析验证了上述结论的有效性。     

水下拖曳体多源信息监控系统设计与实现

基于海洋电法探测系统中水下拖曳体对多源信息实时监控的需求,设计了一种准实时监测拖曳体的运动状态与环境信息的监控系统。该系统可与水面监控器保持命令与数据沟通,并在监控器的指令下启动水下电法仪执行参数设置、数据采集等操作。经系统样机的海上测试结果表明,系统性能稳定可靠,能够在其他水下信息采集作业中得到推广应用。     

Effects of real‐time visual feedback on pre‐service teachers' singing

This pilot study focuses on the use real‐time visual feedback technology (VFT) in vocal training. The empirical research has two aims: to ascertain the effectiveness of the real‐time visual feedback software ‘Sing & See’ in the vocal training of pre‐service music teachers and the teachers' perspective on their experience with VFT. Forty participants from an undergraduate music teacher education programme were randomly assigned to three groups. The first two groups were assigned the teacher and student versions of Sing & See, respectively, and the third group served as a control group without access to the software. The experimental groups were given 12 weeks to use the software for vocal training on a self‐regulated basis. The technique of complex selections (TCS) was designed to assess the pitch accuracy and richness of vocal timbre. Pre‐ and post‐test singing tasks showed that the participants from the experimental groups significantly improved their vocal timbre. A questionnaire survey conducted after the training period found that most of the participants in the experimental s were positive about the effectiveness of VFT software in vocal training. As future leaders in the implementation of music education technology, pre‐service music teachers expressed a positive attitude towards the use of VFT as a technology‐enhanced learning (TEL) component in music education.     

2000年化肥工业发展的几个问题

本文分析预测了我国２０００年的化肥需求量和世界化肥市场价格及其对我国化肥发展的影响。     

纯苯市场分析及预测

对纯苯市场的供需情况进行了调查和分析.     

对国际原油价格持续走高的几点看法

分析了2005年上半年国际原油价格持续走高的原因，对下半年油价走势进行了预测。     

引进设备与技术的价格确定

探讨了引进设备与技术的价格计算方法，对当前尚未明确的取费基数及计算公式进行了确认，对国外运输费、国外运输保险费、关税等从属费用的计取进行了规范。     

Implicit Bayesian Inference Using Option Prices

Abstract. A Bayesian approach to option pricing is presented in which posterior inference about the underlying returns process is conducted implicitly via observed option prices. A range of models allowing for conditional leptokurtosis, skewness and time‐varying volatility in returns are considered, with posterior parameter distributions and model probabilities backed out from the option prices. Models are ranked according to several criteria, including out‐of‐sample predictive and hedging performance. The methodology accommodates heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation in the option pricing errors, as well as regime shifts across contract groups. The method is applied to intraday option price data on the S&P500 stock index for 1995. While the results provide support for models that accommodate leptokurtosis and skewness, no one model dominates when all criteria are considered.     

原材料价格波动下钢铁生产库存多期优化模型

考虑钢铁企业钢材生产受钢材需求和生产变动成本波动的双重影响,在预测基础上,建立钢材生产库存多期动态优化模型。由于模型涉及多种钢材及多个时段,属于大规模问题,求解困难,且为了避免粒子群算法陷入局部最优,提出采用模拟退火与粒子群组合智能算法对模型进行求解。最后通过钢铁企业L的案例,结果表明算法具有较强的收敛性和适用性,模型可用于解决钢铁企业多期生产实际问题。     

安全苛刻系统自动化测试的形式化语义模型

安全苛刻系统的可信性需求典型而迫切,其可信性评估和验证具有测试依赖性.安全苛刻系统一般是复杂系统,手工测试实际上不可行,发展自动化测试手段是必然趋势.针对安全苛刻系统测试过程自动化中存在的高阶协同、实时和时序性,以Ambient演算、CCS演算、论域理论等为基础,给出测试过程的高阶协同定义,建立一种层次化演算模型,为测试过程提供一种信息化和自动化手段.模型通过对被测产品、测试设备与测试任务的抽象与组织,给出安全苛刻系统测试过程自动化的工作模式.最后,通过扩展标记转换系统定义,给出高阶协同行为的收敛性和正确性的证明,论证了模型的可计算性,验证了安全苛刻系统测试的可自动化.模型已应用于航天器的自动化测试中,并成为航天器测试行为的日常工作规范.