A bat-neural network multi-agent system (BNNMAS) for stock price prediction: Case study of DAX stock price

Creating an intelligent system that can accurately predict stock price in a robust way has always been a subject of great interest for many investors and financial analysts. Predicting future trends of financial markets is more remarkable these days especially after the recent global financial crisis. So traders who access to a powerful engine for extracting helpful information throw raw data can meet the success. In this paper we propose a new intelligent model in a multi-agent framework called bat-neural network multi-agent system (BNNMAS) to predict stock price. The model performs in a four layer multi-agent framework to predict eight years of DAX stock price in quarterly periods. The capability of BNNMAS is evaluated by applying both on fundamental and technical DAX stock price data and comparing the outcomes with the results of other methods such as genetic algorithm neural network (GANN) and some standard models like generalized regression neural network (GRNN), etc. The model tested for predicting DAX stock price a period of time that global financial crisis was faced to economics. The results show that BNNMAS significantly performs accurate and reliable, so it can be considered as a suitable tool for predicting stock price specially in a long term periods.     

Design criterion for fatigue strengthening of riveted beams in a 120-year-old railway metallic bridge using pre-stressed CFRP plates

This study presents a design criterion developed for fatigue strengthening of a 120-year-old metallic railway bridge in Switzerland and presents a pre-stressed un-bonded reinforcement (PUR) system developed to apply the strengthening. The PUR system uses carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP) plates; however, unlike conventional pre-stressed CFRP reinforcement methods, preparation of the existing metallic bridge surface is not required. This decreases the time required for on-site strengthening procedures. The principle of the constant life diagram (CLD) and two fatigue failure criteria (Johnson and Goodman) are described. Analytical formulations are developed based on the CLD method to determine the minimum CFRP pre-stress level required to prevent fatigue crack initiation. The PUR system uses an applied pre-stress force to reduce the mean stress level (and stress ratio) to shift an existing fatigue-susceptible metallic detail from the ‘at risk’ finite life regime to the ‘safe’ infinite life regime. The applied CLD method is particularly valuable when the stress history of the detail is not known and it is difficult to assess the remaining fatigue life. Moreover, it is shown that the currently adopted approach in many structural codes which emphasizes stress range as the dominant parameter influencing fatigue life are non-conservative for tension–tension stress patterns (i.e., stress ratios of 0 < R < 1). Analyses show that the modified Johnson formula accurately reflects the combined effect of stress range, mean stress level, and material properties, and offers a relatively easy design procedure. Details of a retrofit field application on members of a riveted wrought iron railway bridge are given. A wireless sensor network (WSN) system is used for long-term monitoring of the on-site CFRP stress levels and temperature of the retrofitted details. WSN measurements indicate that increases in ambient temperature result in increased CFRP pre-stress levels.     

Static and free vibration analysis of functionally graded plates based on a new quasi-3D and 2D shear deformation theories

In this study, two dimensional (2D) and quasi three-dimensional (quasi-3D) shear deformation theories are presented for static and free vibration analysis of single-layer functionally graded (FG) plates using a new hyperbolic shape function. The material of the plate is inhomogeneous and the material properties assumed to vary continuously in the thickness direction by three different distributions; power-law, exponential and Mori–Tanaka model, in terms of the volume fractions of the constituents. The fundamental governing equations which take into account the effects of both transverse shear and normal stresses are derived through the Hamilton's principle. The closed form solutions are obtained by using Navier technique and then fundamental frequencies are found by solving the results of eigenvalue problems. In-plane stress components have been obtained by the constitutive equations of composite plates. The transverse stress components have been obtained by integrating the three-dimensional stress equilibrium equations in the thickness direction of the plate. The accuracy of the present method is demonstrated by comparisons with the different 2D, 3D and quasi-3D solutions available in the literature.     

浅谈氯碱氢的一种深度脱水工艺

概述了氢的主要工业生产方法和实际应用,详细介绍了氯碱氢三级脱水工艺过程,并运用在线分析手段,准确显示了干燥过程中的氯碱氢水分含量变化规律。     

Nonlinear response in glass fibre non-crimp fabric reinforced vinylester composites

This paper addresses the nonlinear stress-strain response in glass fibre non-crimp fabric reinforced vinylester composite laminates subjected to in-plane tensile loading. The nonlinearity is shown to be a combination of brittle and plastic failure. It is argued that the shift from plastic to brittle behaviour in the vinylester is caused by the state of stress triaxiality caused by the interaction between fibre and vinylester. A model combining damage and plasticity is calibrated and evaluated using data from extensive experimental testing. The onset of damage is predicted using the Puck failure criterion, and the evolution of damage is calibrated from the observed softening in plies loaded in transverse tension. Shear loading beyond linear elastic response is observed to result in irreversible strains. A yield criterion is implemented for shear deformation. A strain hardening law is fitted to the stress-strain response observed in shear loaded plies. Experimental results from a selection of laminates with different layups are used to verify the numerical models. A complete set of model parameters for predicting elastic behaviour, strength and post failure softening is presented for glass fibre non-crimped fabric reinforced vinylester. The predicted behaviour from using these model parameters are shown to be in good agreement with experimental results.     

Inverted pendulum stabilization: Characterization of codimension-three triple zero bifurcation via multiple delayed proportional gains

The paper considers the problem of stabilization of systems possessing a multiple zero eigenvalue at the origin. The controller that we propose, uses multiple delayed measurements instead of derivative terms. Doing so, we increase the performances of the closed loop in presence of system uncertainties and/or noisy measurements. The problem formulation and the analysis is presented through a classical engineering problem which is the stabilization of an inverted pendulum on a cart moving horizontally. On one hand, we perform a nonlinear analysis of the center dynamics described by a three dimensional system of ordinary differential equations with a codimension-three triple zero bifurcation. On the other hand, we present the complementary stability analysis of the corresponding linear time invariant system with two delays describing the behavior around the equilibrium. The aim of this analysis is to characterize the possible local bifurcations. Finally, the proposed control scheme is numerically illustrated and discussed.     

Theoretical investigation of solvent effects on the selective hydrogenation of furfural over Pt(111)

It was well known that solvent effect plays a very important role in the catalytic reaction. There are many theoretical studies on the solvent effect in homogeneous catalysis while there are few theoretical studies on the solvent effect in the heterogeneous catalytic reaction and there has been no work to investigate the solvent effect on furfural transformation in heterogeneous catalysis. In the present work, both the density functional calculations and the microkinetic analysis were performed to study the selective hydrogenation of furfural over Pt(111) in the presence of methanol as well as toluene and compared with that in the gas condition. The present results indicated that the methanol can enhance the adsorption strength of furfural and other oxygen-containing reaction species due to its relatively strong polarity properties and this can be a main reason for solvent-induced high activity and selectivity. Another reason is that reaction paths study showed that the presence of methanol solvent makes the dehydrogenation of furfural less thermochemical due to the fact that furfural is more stabilized than that of dehydrogenation species, and methanol also has an inhibition effect on the dehydrogenation of furfural in the kinetic aspect, and further energetic span theory proves highest activity and selectivity for hydrogenation in methanol solvent of vapor, methanol and toluene. Moreover, microkinetic model simulation demonstrated that the activity and selectivity of hydrogenation in methanol is both higher than that in vapor and toluene. The much higher activity in methanol is due to the stabilized adsorbed reactants in the surface, which leads to a higher surface coverage of furfural. It might be proposed based on the present work that a solvent with relatively strong polarity may be favorable for the high selective hydrogenation of furfural.     

A precise sensor fault detection technique using statistical techniques for wireless body area networks

One of the major challenges in wireless body area networks (WBANs) is sensor fault detection. This paper reports a method for the precise identification of faulty sensors, which should help users identify true medical conditions and reduce the rate of false alarms, thereby improving the quality of services offered by WBANs. The proposed sensor fault detection (SFD) algorithm is based on Pearson correlation coefficients and simple statistical methods. The proposed method identifies strongly correlated parameters using Pearson correlation coefficients, and the proposed SFD algorithm detects faulty sensors. We validated the proposed SFD algorithm using two datasets from the Multiparameter Intelligent Monitoring in Intensive Care database and compared the results to those of existing methods. The time complexity of the proposed algorithm was also compared to that of existing methods. The proposed algorithm achieved high detection rates and low false alarm rates with accuracies of 97.23% and 93.99% for Dataset 1 and Dataset 2, respectively.     

Finite element analysis of fracture behavior in ceramics: Competition between artificial notch and internal defects under three-point bending

Evaluation of the nonlinear relationship between the surface defect size and fracture strength of ceramics is important for engineering applications. In this study, we aim to predict the apparent nonlinear relationship between the defect size and fracture strength of single-edge notched beams (SENBs) using the finite element method. Specifically, we applied the methodology for predicting fracture strength from microstructure distribution data (relative density, pore size, aspect ratio, and grain size) to a finite element analysis (FEA) model in which the shape and size of the initial defects are defined at notch locations. By reproducing the apparent nonlinearity caused by the competition between the surface and internal defects within the framework of linear elastic fracture mechanics, the effectiveness of the FEA methodology for the evaluation of strength scatter and allowable crack size in ceramics was demonstrated.     

Damage evolution in polymer due to exposure to high-pressure hydrogen gas

The use of hydrogen as a fuel is increasing exponentially, and the most economical way to store and transport hydrogen for fuel use is as a high-pressure gas. Polymers are widely used for hydrogen distribution and storage systems because they are chemically inert towards hydrogen. However, when exposed to high-pressure hydrogen, some hydrogen diffuses through polymers and occupies the preexisting cavities inside the material. Upon depressurization, the hydrogen trapped inside polymer cavities can cause blistering or cracking by expanding these cavities. A continuum mechanics–based deformation model was deployed to predict the stress distribution and damage propagation while the polymer undergoes depressurization after high-pressure hydrogen exposure. The effects of cavity size, cavity location, and pressure inside the cavity on damage initiation and evolution inside the polymer were studied. The stress and damage evolution in the presence of multiple cavities was also studied, because interaction among cavities alters the damage and stress field. It was found that all these factors significantly change the stress state in the polymer, resulting in different paths for damage propagation. The effect of adding carbon black filler particles and plasticizer on the damage was also studied. It was found that damage tolerance of the polymer increases drastically with the addition of carbon black fillers, but decreases with the addition of the plasticizer.