高坝风险分析的事件树法

新世纪一批高坝将要在我国开工建设,这对我国的水电能源及国民经济的发展有着不可估量的作用,而高坝建设中,安全性是需要首先保证的。目前对高坝的风险分析方法有主观概率法、客观概率法等。从系统工程的角度出发,采用事件树方法对高坝的风险进行了探索研究,并给出了算例以说明该方法的有效性和实用性。     

Technical risk involved in long-term operation of steam turbines

The scope of the paper is the assessment of the technical risk involved in long-term operation of power units. Detailed analyses have been conducted for steam turbine components. The sources and consequences of risk have been identified and the probability of turbine components failure calculated. The quantitative assessment of the risk has been made and possibilities of its reduction discussed.     

Distinctive Features of Minimization of a Risk Functional in Mass Data Sets

A statistical learning model is considered within the framework of the theory of uniform convergence of frequencies of errors in the case where the convergence is violated as a result of increasing the informativeness of training examples. Drawbacks of nonconstructive refinements of Vapnik-Chervonenkis estimates based on an assumption on the distribution law of violations are shown. A new approach to obtaining constructive estimates for mass data sets is proposed.     

Critical incidents and chronic stressors at work: Their impact on forensic doctors.

Workers in medium- or high-risk professions are often confronted with critical incidents at the workplace. The impact of these acute stressors may be serious and enduring. Many workers also experience chronic job stressors, such as work overload or role conflicts. This study examined the frequently neglected relationship of acute and chronic stressors with self-reported health symptoms, such as posttraumatic responses, fatigue, and burnout. This association was investigated in a sample of forensic doctors in the Netherlands (N = 84). It was found that the more traumatic events the respondents experienced, the more problems they reported in coping with the traumatic events. Chronic job stressors were associated with posttraumatic responses (intrusions and avoidances) and with burnout and fatigue. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Risk evaluations for the courts: Is service quality a function of specialization?

Psychologists are often asked to testify in court. However, concerns have been expressed in both the legal and psychological literatures about the quality of these services. This article presents survey results comparing the practice patterns of generally licensed psychologists with those of specialist forensic diplomates in providing risk evaluations. Results suggest that general clinicians frequently perform these evaluations, but forensic diplomates use more modern risk instruments, are more aware of the scientific literature, and provide the court with more information about the scientific basis of their testimony. The implication of these results for legal professionals, psychologist training, and practice are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

ERP的实施与风险防范

在管理应用的广度方面，ERP超越了MRP的应用范围。文中指出了实施ERP系统的步骤及ERP实施中应注意的问题，强调企业有必要对风险有充分认识，建立一套行之有效的风险管理机制，从而提高了ERP系统的实施成功率，最终提高企业的管理水平。     

房地产投资的主要风险与防范策略

对房地产投资的风险进行了分析研究，并针对各个风险因素提出了具体的应对措施，同时就房地产投资风险的防范策略进行了深入探讨，以提高房地产投资的经济效益。     

对油田企业建设和执行内部控制体系的思考

内部控制是一个由企业董事会、管理层和其他员工实施的,为实现企业经营的效果和效率目标、财务报告的可靠性目标和舍规性目标提供合理保证的过程。有效地建设以及有力地执行内控制度,对石油企业发展过程中有效地避免风险的发生起着非常重要的作用。但是,由于种种原因,油田企业目前的内部控制体系还不成熟,还存在着一些建设上的不足和执行上的不力。同时,企业员工普遍对内部控制还存在着一些认识误区,这就要求我们必须努力学习内控知识,加强内控知识培训,充分调动企业全体员工建设和雏护内部控制体系的积极性和自觉性,使得内控可以真正发挥其防范风险的作用。     

卡伦水库洪水风险调度效益浅析

本文主要从选择卡伦水库实行洪水风险调度的依据、水库洪水控制标准、调度原则及效益等方面论述卡伦水库实行洪水风险调度的重大意义。特别强调在水库洪水调度过程中适度承担风险,必须确保工程安全运行、科学调度,加强管理,依法防洪,合理蓄水,要正确把握水库安全度汛与水资源合理利用的关系,正确处理防洪与兴利的关系,正确处理风险与效益的关系,充分发挥水库的综合效益。适度承担风险进行水库洪水调度,既充分利用雨洪资源,又尽最大可能变水害为水利,实现雨洪资源化,达到人、水与自然和谐共处,促进经济社会协调发展。     

Monitoring herbaceous fuel moisture content with SPOT VEGETATION time-series for fire risk prediction in savanna ecosystems

This paper evaluated the capacity of SPOT VEGETATION time-series to monitor herbaceous fuel moisture content (FMC) in order to improve fire risk assessment in the savanna ecosystem of Kruger National Park in South Africa. In situ herbaceous FMC data were used to assess the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI), Vegetation Dryness Index (VDI), Improved VDI (IVDI), and Accumulated Relative NDVI Decrement (ARND) during the dry season. The effect of increasing amounts of dead vegetation on the monitoring capacity of derived indices was studied by sampling mixed live and dead FMC. The IVDI was proposed as an improvement of the VDI to monitor herbaceous FMC during the dry season. The IVDI is derived by replacing NDVI with the integrated Relative Vegetation Index (iRVI), as an approximation of yearly herbaceous biomass, when analyzing the 2-dimensional space with NDWI. It was shown that the iRVI offered more information than the NDVI in combination with NDWI to monitor FMC. The VDI and IVDI exhibited a significant relation to FMC with R² of 0.25 and 0.73, respectively. The NDWI, however, correlated best with FMC (R² = 0.75), while the correlation of ARND and FMC was weaker (R² = 0.60) than that found for NDVI, NDWI, and IVDI. The use of in situ herbaceous FMC consequently indicated that NDWI is appropriate as spatio-temporal information source of herbaceous FMC variation which can be used to optimize fire risk and behavior assessment for fire management in savanna ecosystems.