皇甫川流域水沙特性分析及其治理对策

作者对皇甫川流域从径流泥沙来源、水沙特性、水沙变化趋势等方面进行了较为深入地分析和研究，据此提出皇甫川流域近期治理方略是：以沟道坝系建设为切入点；积极推进林草植被建设；对砒砂岩地区实行大面积封禁治理。流域近期至2010年，治理的重点建议放在十里长川、沙圪堵至皇甫区间和沙圪堵以上的纳林川左岸。     

塔里木河流域源流及干流水均衡分析

通过对塔里木河流域源流及干流的径流变化和水均衡分析 ,表明塔里木河源流来水基本稳定 ,由于源流灌区引水以及渗漏蒸发等损失加剧 ,干流水量存在减少趋势 ,并加剧了水量的时间分配不均 ,不利于干流农业的可持续发展和生态环境的维护与改善     

水文学的研究方法与理论创新

回顾了水文学在其 30 0余年的形成和发展中曾出现过的若干引人入胜、富有启发性、对学科发展起着重要推动作用的研究成果 .论述了“假设”、“猜想”、“推理”、“比拟”、“综合”和“实验”等研究方法的运用在水文学理论创新中的重要作用 .     

Decomposition of Time Series Dynamic Linear Models

This paper derives the admissible decompositions for a time series dynamic linear model, assuming only that the model is observable. The decompositions depend on factorizations of the characteristic polynomial of the state evolution matrix G into relatively prime factors. This generalizes the method of West (1997 ) which considers one decomposition in the particular case where G is diagonalizable. Conditions are derived for a decomposition to be independent. These results show that no autoregressive process of order d has an independent decomposition for any integer d . Two illustrations of this procedure are discussed in detail.     

Simulation of runoff and phosphorus transport in a Carpathian catchment,Slovakia

A comprehensive, GIS‐based modelling approach is developed to estimate runoff and phosphorus transport within a watershed at a daily time step. The approach relies on the use of GIS data for deriving major critical model parameters that exhibit distinct spatial variability over the catchment. Surface runoff is calculated by a modified rational method, which depends upon rainfall intensity, soil moisture status, slope, land‐use and soil characteristics. Phosphorus loading is estimated as a function of the runoff volume and the event mean concentration for different land use categories. A diffusive approximation method is used to trace runoff and phosphorus transport to the basin outlet. The modelling approach is tested in the Margecany catchment, Hornad River basin, Slovakia, to simulate runoff, phosphorus loading, and its transport on a daily time scale using data observed between 1995 and 2000. Satisfactory results of the hydrographs and phosphorus concentration at the basin outlet are obtained, though more efforts regarding the phosphorus cycling and its biochemical reactions need to be clarified by further research. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Simulation-based sequential analysis of Markov switching stochastic volatility models

We propose a simulation-based algorithm for inference in stochastic volatility models with possible regime switching in which the regime state is governed by a first-order Markov process. Using auxiliary particle filters we developed a strategy to sequentially learn about states and parameters of the model. The methodology is tested against a synthetic time series and validated with a real financial time series: the IBOVESPA stock index (São Paulo Stock Exchange).     

准噶尔盆地三台-北三台地区第三系勘探潜力分析

从沉积及储层组合、油气运移系统等方面全面剖析了准噶尔盆地三台-北三台地区第三系油气成藏条件，建立了成藏模式，对未钻探区勘探潜力进行了预测；通过分析，认为该区第三系储层物性主体差，断裂更多地表现为封闭性，导致沟通深部油气源的运移体系不畅，致使第三系圈闭不能有效捕获和储集油气。圈闭又比较匮乏，主体勘探潜力不大。北25井西背斜紧邻多期活动的甘诃子北断裂，第三系可能发育较好的储层，相对有利，北25井西背斜应是钻探第三系的首选目标。     

Transient aspects of inner wall temperatures at different spatial positions in fluidized bed evaporators

In this work, the instantaneous data of inner wall temperatures obtained at given axial positions but for different heated tubes or at various axial positions but at the same heated tube in a tube-bank fluidized bed evaporator with a vapor–liquid–solid external natural circulation flow were analyzed by employing linear and nonlinear time series analysis methods, including correlation dimension and Kolmogorov entropy analyses besides time domain, power spectrum and autocorrelation analyses. It is found that nonlinear characteristics of the wall temperature time series vary with spatial position in the evaporator at given operation conditions, and thus the multi-phase flow boiling behavior. However, the signals obtained at given axial position but different heated tubes in the evaporator exhibit more similar nonlinear evolution behavior, and those measured in the same heated tube but at different axial heights in the evaporator undergo more distinct nonlinear dynamic behavior. Multi-scale phenomena in different spatial positions are also found and discussed. These transient aspects of inner wall temperatures are closely related to the average holdup of solid particles and motion of vapor bubbles in vapor–liquid–solid flow. These results can provide some valuable information on the system modeling and controlling from the point of view of nonlinearity.     

ZPG系列盘式真空过滤机的研制与应用

详细介绍了ZPG系列盘式真空过滤机的主要特点、基本原理和主要技术参数。对盘式真空过滤机的过滤理论进行了系统的研究 ,以及为提高过滤系数和降低滤饼水分所采取的关键措施。与传统的真空过滤机进行了对比 ,表明ZPG系列盘式真空过滤机的滤饼水分可以降低 1 %～ 3 % ,过滤系数提高 3 0 %～5 0 % ,过滤每吨精矿的能耗可以降低 5 0 %左右 ,使得ZPG系列盘式真空过滤机在国内各大冶金矿山得到全面推广使用 ,创造了巨大的经济效益和社会效益。     

A complete VARMA modelling methodology based on scalar components

Abstract. This article proposes an extension to scalar component methodology for the identification and estimation of VARMA models. The complete methodology determines the exact positions of all free parameters in any VARMA model with a predetermined embedded scalar component structure. This leads to an exactly identified system of equations that is estimated using full information maximum likelihood.