Self-controlled case series analyses: Small-sample performance

Second-order expressions for the asymptotic bias and variance of the log relative incidence estimator are derived for the self-controlled case series model in a simplified scenario. The dependence of the bias and variance on factors such as the relative incidence and ratio of risk to observation period are studied. Small-sample performance of the estimator in realistic scenarios is investigated using simulations. It is found that, in scenarios likely to arise in practice, asymptotic methods are valid for numbers of cases in excess of 20-50 depending on the ratio of the risk period to the observation period and on the relative incidence. The application of Monte Carlo methods to self-controlled case series analyses is also discussed.     

矿井串联系统模糊可靠性理论的研究

矿井系统不仅具有随机性，而且同时也具有模糊性，在系统分析与设计过程中应同时考虑这两种不确定性因素的影响。文中提出了模糊故障、模糊功能、系统模糊运营状态和广义可靠度等概念，并在此基础上提出了求单元及串联系统的生产能力、营运费用、应急维修费用、修理时间和广义可靠度等指标的方法，建立了使系统平均生产能力最大的系统最优运营策略的数学模型。     

Series resonant ZCS‐PFM DC‐DC power converter with high‐frequency high‐voltage transformer link for high‐power magnetron drive

This paper presents a single lossless inductive snubber‐assisted ZCS‐PFM series resonant DC‐DC power converter with a high‐frequency high‐voltage transformer link for industrial‐use high‐power magnetron drive. The current flowing through the active power switches rises gradually at a turned‐on transient state with the aid of a single lossless snubber inductor, and ZCS turn‐on commutation based on overlapping current can be achieved via the wide range pulse frequency modulation control scheme. The high‐frequency high‐voltage transformer primary side resonant current always becomes continuous operation mode, by electromagnetic loose coupling design of the high‐frequency high‐voltage transformer and the magnetizing inductance of the high‐frequency high‐voltage transformer. As a result, this high‐voltage power converter circuit for the magnetron can achieve a complete zero current soft switching under the condition of broad width gate voltage signals. Furthermore, this high‐voltage DC‐DC power converter circuit can regulate the output power from zero to full over audible frequency range via the two resonant frequency circuit design. Its operating performances are evaluated and discussed on the basis of the power loss analysis simulation and the experimental results from a practical point of view. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Electr Eng Jpn, 153(3): 79–87, 2005; Published online in Wiley InterScience ( www.interscience.wiley.com ). DOI 10.1002/eej.20126     

Identification environment and robust forecasting for nonlinear time series

In this paper, the methods of time series for nonlinearity are briefly surveyed, with particular attention paid to a new test design based on a neural network specification. The proposed integrated expert system contains two main components: an identification environment and a robust forecasting design. The identification environment can be viewed as a integrated dynamic design in which cognitive capabilities arise as a direct consequence of their self-organizational properties. The integrated framework used for discussing the similarities and differences in the nonlinear time series behavior is presented. Moreover, its performance in prediction proves to be superior than the former work. For the investigation of robust forecasting, we perform a simulation study to demonstrate the applicability and the forecasting performance.     

非线性动态系统“黑箱”建模方法的研究

本文研究弱非线性动态系统“黑箱”建模的理论和方法，并简要给出根据此方法建模的结果。     

THE RECURSIVE FITTING OF SUBSET VARX MODELS

Abstract. A vector time series model of the form A(L)y(t) + B(L)x(t) =ε(t) is known as a vector autoregressive model with exogenous variables (VARX model) and involves a regressand vector y(t) and a regressor vector x(t). This paper provides a method for the recursive fitting of subset VARX models. It suggests the use of ascending recursions in conjunction with an order selection criterion to choose an 'optimum' subset VARX model.     

基于ARToolkit Plus的增强现实系统实现及框架研究

文章首先对基于ARToolkit Plus和WPF的增强现实系统实现的关键技术问题进行了描述,具体讨论了在MVC框架下如何将数据采集层与呈现层进行分划,在保证可用性的同时提供较强的扩展能力,并基于上述框架实现了一个应用于住房装修的实例。     

松材线虫病害高光谱时序与敏感特征研究

采用高光谱仪ASD FieldSpec Pro FR,连续观测了健康和发病马尾松针叶的时序高光谱,分析了松材线虫病害光谱的时序特征、敏感时期和敏感特征。结果表明:与健康马尾松相比,病害马尾松时序光谱差异较大;病害首先造成红边区域内光谱反射率减低,然后再出现红边蓝移的2阶段光谱变化规律;感染松材线虫的马尾松9月初已经出现了病态植被典型的光谱特征;近红外平台内最大的一阶微分值、红边内一阶微分的总和(SDr)与蓝边内一阶微分的总和(SDb)的比值等是指示病害发生的显著性高光谱特征。     

Hybrid function projective synchronization of chaotic systems with uncertain time-varying parameters via Fourier series expansion

In this paper, the hybrid function projective synchronization (HFPS) of different chaotic systems with uncertain periodically time-varying parameters is carried out by Fourier series expansion and adaptive bounding technique. Fourier series expansion is used to deal with uncertain periodically time-varying parameters. Adaptive bounding technique is used to compensate the bound of truncation errors. Using the Lyapunov stability theory, an adaptive control law and six parameter updating laws are constructed to make the states of two different chaotic systems asymptotically synchronized. The control strategy does not need to know the parameters thoroughly if the time-varying parameters are periodical functions. Finally, in order to verify the effectiveness of the proposed scheme, the HFPS between Lorenz system and Chen system is completed successfully by using this scheme.