水文序列相依变异识别的RIC定阶准则——以自回归模型为例

水文过程相依性是水文变异的主要表现形式之一,应用自回归模型对其进行拟合时合理确定模型阶数是一个难点问题。本文在分析AIC和BIC准则的基础上,提出了一种以原序列与其相依成分的相关系数作为拟合度指标,同时借用信息熵形式的函数式,作为模型不确定性度量指标的自回归模型定阶准则(简称RIC准则)。以AR(1)、AR(2)、AR(3)和AR(4)模型为例进行统计试验,将不同序列长度下该准则的定阶准确率与其他定阶准则进行比较,试验结果表明,RIC准则对于上述模型均具有较好的适应性,且定阶准确率远高于AIC准则,其中对于前三阶模型RIC准则优于BIC准则,但四阶模型略低于BIC准则。RIC准则的优势是可以同时满足模型定阶、相依程度分级与模型检验的需求,将其应用于实测水文序列分析,结果显示,该准则能较准确地识别自回归模型的阶数,且符合提出的"相依有变异而残差无变异的最小阶数"的检验标准。     

An experimental study of forced convective heat transfer for fully developed Al 2 O 3 –water nanofluid in an annulus tube

Nanofluids have been known as practical materials to ameliorate heat transfer within diverse industrial systems. The current work presents an empirical study on forced convection effects of Al₂O₃–water nanofluid within an annulus tube. A laminar flow regime has been considered to perform the experiment in high Reynolds number range using several concentrations of nanofluid. Also, the boundary conditions include a constant uniform heat flux applied on the outer shell and an adiabatic condition to the inner tube. Nanofluid particle is visualized with transmission electron microscopy to figure out the nanofluid particles. Additionally, the pressure drop is obtained by measuring the inlet and outlet pressure with respect to the ambient condition. The experimental results showed that adding nanoparticles to the base fluid will increase the heat transfer coefficient (HTC) and average Nusselt number. In addition, by increasing viscosity effects at maximum Reynolds number of 1140 and increasing nanofluid concentration from 1% to 4% (maximum performance at 4%), HTC increases by 18%.     

Enhanced transduction coefficient in piezoelectric PZT ceramics by mixing powders calcined at different temperatures

Large transduction coefficient ($d_{33}\times g_{33}$) is difficult to obtain in piezoelectric ceramics because these two parameters show opposite trends with compositional modifications. Herein, the Pb(Zr_0.53Ti_0.47)O₃ ceramic powders were calcinated under different temperatures (A:830 °C, B:860 °C, and C:890 °C), and then mixed together according to different weight ratios (1A:1B:1C, 1A:2B:1C, 1A:2B:3C and 3A:2B:1C) for ceramics preparation. Both d₃₃ and g₃₃ are improved successfully, and the transduction coefficient with the weight ratio of 1A:2B:3C reaches up to 17,500 × 10⁻¹⁵ m²/N, which is 60 % higher than that with the powders calcinated under 830 °C, and at least twice those of commercial PZT-4, PZT-5A and PZT-8 ceramics. The improved transduction coefficient is owing to the enhanced piezoelectric constant and spontaneous polarization resulted from the increased grain size, relative density and the fraction of tetragonal phase. These results indicate that this is a simple but effective way to tailor the transduction coefficient in piezoelectric ceramics.     

Flame Front Deformation Instabilities of Filtration Combustion for Initial Thermal Perturbation

The flame front deformation instability of low-velocity filtration combustion within an inert packed bed is studied based on the initial preheating non-uniformity. Based on the experimental phenomena, an initial thermal perturbation model is numerically proposed so as to predict the deformation behaviors of the flame front instabilities. The numerical prediction indicates that the assumption of an initial thermal perturbation is a feasible explanation as the cause of the flame front inclination instability. As the initial thermal perturbation increases, the phenomena of the flame front break and shrinking instabilities could easily occur at high filtration velocity or low equivalence ratio. Moreover, the evolutions of the flame front break rate and the shrinking rate are quantitatively analyzed.     

最大塑性功原理在烧结体上限分析中的应用

最大塑性功原理又称第二塑性变分原理，在致密体塑性变形分析叶l是运用能量法进行变形力能计算的基础。本文从分析Drucker公设的亢要条件出发，证明了烧结体塑性变形最大塑性功原理的存在，片在该原理的荩础卜，推导出塑性变形的上限功率表达式，并以平面挤压条件下的上限法应用作为实例加以说明。     

灰局势决策在水利工程开发方案优选中的应用

针对水利工程开发方案优选具有多目标、多层次等特点,建立灰局势决策模型并应用变异系数法确定评价指标权重。利用该模型对灌区改建扩建规划方案进行优选,结果表明这是一种有效的方法。     

浅析HPT250轧机中滑移系数对轧制过程的影响

通过HPT250轧机在技术改造中遇到的一个问题，即滑移系数对冷轧元缝钢管在轧制过程中所起的作用。在实际生产中经过不断的技术研究和改进。使闲置多年的HPT250轧机为钢管公司的生产迭拉起到很大的作用。     

The effect of ionic cross-links on the deformation behavior of homoblends made of poly(styrene-co-styrenesulfonic acid) and poly(styrene-co-4-vinylpyridine)

Deformation behavior of stoichiometric blends made from poly(styrene-co-styrenesulfonic acid) (SPS) and poly(styrene-co-4-vinylpyridine) (SVP) was investigated by TEM observation of strained thin films. An FTIR investigation revealed that ionic cross-links were formed between the component polymers upon blending due to intermolecular ion-ion interactions, which arose from proton transfer from sulfonic acid groups to pyridine groups. TEM observations indicate that the deformation mode of the blends changed from crazing only to crazing plus shear deformation, with the shear contribution becoming larger, as the ion content in the blends increased. Such changes in deformation mode can be understood as arising from an increase in the ‘effective’ strand density due to the formation of ionic cross-links upon blending. It was also found that the ionic cross-links via pyridinium cation/sulfonate anion ion pairs were more effective in inducing the transition of deformation mode than ionic cross-links via -SO₃⁻/Na⁺ or -SO₃⁻/Ca²⁺ ion pairs.     

三重介质油藏干扰试井压力动态特征

在建立三重介质油藏试井解释模型的基础上，对该类油藏的干扰试井压力动态变化进行了研究；分析了井筒储存、表皮系数、窜流系数以及弹性储容比对观测井井底压力的影响。结果表明，表皮系数对观测井的井底压力没有影响，而井筒储存是否会对观测井井底压力造成影响取决于井筒储存系数的大小以及激动井和观测井之间的距离，窜流系数和弹性储容比对观测井井底压力的影响与单井试井的结果相类似。     

Nd3+:Y0.5Gd0.5VO4晶体生长和基本特性

Nd^3 :Y0.5Gd0.5VO4晶体作为一种新的激光材料，可以用中频感应加热提拉法生长。X射线粉末衍射分析表明它的结构与Nd^3 :YVO4晶体结构相同，它的晶格常数介于YVO4和NdVO4晶格常数之间。用ICP光谱法测定晶体中Nd^3 含量为0．8at％，分凝系数为0．8，与Nd^3 :GdVO4晶体中Nd^3 的分凝系数0．78相当；用称重法测定其密度为5．00g／cm^3；用稳态纵向热流法测出其室温热导率为12．5W／mK。实验表明Nd^3 :Y0.5Gd0.5VO4晶体有希望作为高功率ID泵浦激光晶体材料。