Investigation of the impact of changes in demand forecasting method on the financial performance of an electricity supply undertaking

Peak demand forecasts obtained from six different univariate forecasting methods, under a range of conditions, were used to drive a capacity acquisition model of a large electrical supply system; and the resulting physical and financial performance of the model was observed for each set of forecasts. The results obtained are discussed in the context of their implications for the choice of load forecasting method used in capacity acquisition planning by a power supply undertaking.     

电力负荷削峰减载系统在珠钢电炉的应用

借助现场采集装置,在计算机上获取每一分钟的冶炼工艺电能需求量,显示当前15分钟时段已发生的电耗量,调整用户设定,实现需量自动刷新、报警和专家分析推荐后续用量;实现平稳用电并减少对电网冲击,同时降低电能最大需用量以减少成本。     

Effects of situational demand upon social enjoyment and preference in schizotypy.

The socioemotional functioning of schizophrenic and schizotypic individuals is marked by withdrawal, poor organization, and limited emotional displays. Such behavioral tendencies and lack of social enjoyment in schizotypy could be linked to the relative situational demands or role ambiguity inherent in specific social activities. To determine whether high-schizotypy individuals prefer more clearly role-defined social activities (e.g., visiting relatives) to more ambiguous, novel situations (e.g., going alone to a party), the authors gathered reports from 52 high-schizotypy and 60 low-schizotypy individuals on their enjoyment and frequency of engaging in social situations varying in relative situational demand. Parallel reports were obtained from knowledgeable others. Group × Situational Demand interactions revealed the hypothesized pattern of reduced frequency and enjoyment ratings for ambiguous or novel situations by the high-schizotypy participants in both self and others' reports. Groups were more comparable in their reported frequency and enjoyment of less ambiguous situations. Results suggest the importance of situational demands in the socioemotional experience and behavioral withdrawal in schizotypy. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

不同灌溉条件下的水稻需水规律及水分生产率分析

稻田需水量包括植株蒸腾、棵间蒸发、田间渗漏3部分。研究表明，水稻在充分供水条件下所形成的蒸腾量中包含了一部分无效蒸腾，无效蒸腾量的减少不会影响作物的生长发育，反而会有不同程度的增产和优质效应。节水灌溉技术的推广产生了明显的经济与社会效益。结合当地实际情况采用3种常见的灌溉方式探讨了不同灌溉方式下水稻的需水规律、灌概定额和生产率的差异，为水稻节水高效栽培提供理论与技术依据。     

On-demand Virtual Neonatal Intensive Care units supporting rural, remote and urban healthcare with Bush Babies Broadband

Premature and ill term babies born in regional Australia must be moved to another hospital with Neonatal Intensive Care Unit (NICU) facilities. Transferred pre-term and critically ill term babies have higher mortality rates and much higher rates of long term disability than similar babies born in hospitals with NICU facilities. This paper details the Bush Babies Broadband project that aims to significantly improve the quality of treatment for babies born in rural, remote as well as urban areas by providing the first on-demand virtual NICU architecture in Australia. Real-time data collected from medical monitors and ventilators attached to the baby, audiovisual streams and static physiological data such as X-ray images are transmitted to the consulting Neonatologist to gain a better picture of the patient's condition than is currently available. The key contribution of this significant research is the infrastructure providing a mechanism for Neonatologists to receive information directly from a regional hospital, thereby preventing, in some cases, the immediate need to move the baby. A key benefit of this framework is that it is available to link regional hospitals with the supporting NICU Neonatologist ‘on demand’ eliminating the need to establish permanent point to point connections. This paper further describes the application of that architecture to a specific pilot connecting the Bathurst regional hospital with Neonatologists within the NICU at Nepean Hospital, Penrith Australia.     

Ant colony optimization approach to estimate energy demand of Turkey

This paper attempts to shed light on the determinants of energy demand in Turkey. Energy demand model is first proposed using the ant colony optimization (ACO) approach. It is multi-agent systems in which the behavior of each ant is inspired by the foraging behavior of real ants to solve optimization problem. ACO energy demand estimation (ACOEDE) model is developed using population, gross domestic product (GDP), import and export. All equations proposed here are linear and quadratic. Quadratic_ACOEDE provided better-fit solution due to fluctuations of the economic indicators. The ACOEDE model plans the energy demand of Turkey until 2025 according to three scenarios. The relative estimation errors of the ACOEDE model are the lowest when they are compared with the Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources (MENR) projection.     

河流生态用水流量确定新方法研究

新修改的《中华人民共和国水法》明确提出要维持江河的生态用水流量,以维持水体的自然净化能力,确保健康河流。经过对多种计算方法分析、比较,提出了河流生态用水流量的内涵与计算方法,该法简单可行,不但有一定的理论价值,而且有一定的实用价值,可供实际工作参考使用。     

Strategies for Coping With Business Trips: A Qualitative Exploratory Study.

This study aimed to better understand the impact of business trips on the traveler, the family, and the organization; to learn about maximizing the positive aspects of business travel; and to suggest measures to prevent and manage travel stress. Thirty-five business travelers (American, Israeli, and Swedish) were interviewed about the costs and benefits of their traveling, with a focus on gaining insight into coping strategies. Content analysis of the interviews showed that trips consist of 4 phases--(a) pretrip, (b) journey, (c) stay, and (d) posttrip--and that each phase is characterized by different coping strategies. Business travelers reported using proactive individual and organizational coping strategies in the pretrip phase and a combination of proactive and reactive coping strategies in the other phases. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Sensitivity of generation reserve requirements in deregulated power systems

Since demand for power exhibits great variability the amount of firm energy to be purchased to meet real time demand based on forecasts is usually different from the realized demand for that period. The role of generation reserves is to meet the real time fluctuations of power demand. The predictable part of the demand is met through purchases of firm energy. In this paper a model is presented to determine optimal quantities of firm energy and generation reserves to meet random demands. The model is then parameterized introducing a set of factors to perform a sensitivity study. A full factorial experiment is designed to study the impact of five factors on the response variable (i.e., proportion of generation reserves on the total purchased quantity). An example consisting of 640 simulations corresponding to 2⁵ treatment combinations evaluated over 20 randomly generated mean demands is used to identify significant factors on the response variable. Results from the experiment suggest that generation reserve requirements should be adjusted considering changes in significant factors and in the mean demand over the dispatch interval.     

Strategic appraisal of energy models for Mozambique

The needs that an energy supply system must meet are constantly changing, due to technological, social and political reasons. Effective energy planning is a dynamic process that is repeated periodically and adjusts to changing conditions. Energy decision makers and planners are no longer able to rely on inductive decision making since they have to investigate the effect of various decision parameters and possible future changes. To help in this process, models have been developed where estimates of future load growth, candidate power plants, fuels and other key factors can be introduced, from which the planners can evaluate decision parameters and the available alternatives. The paper presents the different methodologies and practices that are used by 11 energy models for energy demand forecasting, supply side management and generation expansion planning, demand side management and integrated resource planning. The paper concludes to the presentation of a strategic appraisal of the examined energy models appropriate for energy planning in Mozambique. Three models are proposed for conducting demand forecasting, generation expansion planning and demand side management. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.