Developing Cost Response Models for Company-Level Cost Flow Forecasting of Project-Based Corporations

The difficulty in applying the standard curve (S-curve) and cost-schedule integration (CSI) techniques for company-level cost flow forecasting in a project-based industry is the prerequisite of forecasting future unknown individual projects and contract classifications. By analyzing cost flows at the company level through a pool of macroeconomic and internal financial data, this paper proposes an innovative approach to firm-specific model estimation. First, a series of data transformations introduce linear relationships between cost, macroeconomic, and internal financial variables. Second, multivariate regression analysis is employed for initial model building. Third, for the purposes of model restructuring, a subsequent application of Yule–Walker estimates and incomplete principal component analysis is used. This paper uses a sample of four project-based construction firms to demonstrate model performance. Using this methodology, mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) values of the forecasting models range from 0.27 to 0.60%. As such, the transformed cost, macroeconomic, internal financial data could strongly predict company-level cost flow forecasting. While converting the predicted cumulative cost data to periodic cost flows, the MAPE values were augmented, ranging from 7.04 to 17.55%, thus, requiring future research.     

Free-Edge and Ply Cracking Effect in Angle-Ply Laminated Composites Subjected to In-Plane Loads

This paper presents a semianalytical method for the prediction of interlaminar stresses and displacements near the free edges and ply cracks in general angle-ply laminates subjected to biaxial extensions and/or in plane shear deformation. The method is based on a state space representation of the three-dimensional equations of elasticity. Numerical solutions are obtained by using layer refinement in the through thickness direction and Fourier series expansion in the other directions. By this approach, an angle-ply laminate may be composed of an arbitrary number of monoclinic layers and each layer may have different material property and thickness. This method guarantees continuous fields of all interlaminar stresses across interfaces between material layers. Numerical results are compared with those obtained from other methods. It is found that the theory provides a satisfactory approximation to the stress singularities near the free edges and ply cracks. Numerical solutions for antisymmetric laminates under extension and general laminates under shearing are new in the literature and can be used as benchmarks for validating new models.     

Mining for trigger events with survival analysis

This paper discusses a new application of data mining, quantifying the importance of responding to trigger events with reactive contacts. Trigger events happen during a customer’s lifecycle and indicate some change in the relationship with the company. If detected early, the company can respond to the problem and retain the customer; otherwise the customer may switch to another company. It is usually easy to identify many potential trigger events. What is needed is a way of prioritizing which events demand interventions. We conceptualize the trigger event problem and show how survival analysis can be used to quantify the importance of addressing various trigger events. The method is illustrated on four real data sets from different industries and countries.     

超分子主体化合物在分析化学中的应用研究进展

综述了近年来超分子主体化合物在分析化学领域的应用研究与进展。分别以冠醚、环糊精、杯芳烃、卟啉4类超分子为主体功能化合物的研究进行了详细的评述，并对这几类主体化合物在分析化学中的应用研究进行了展望。     

An analysis of shielding against DC magnetic fields generated by electric railways. Evaluation of effective permeability of fine structure

This paper describes an effective analysis of magnetic shielding based on homogenization. The analyses become time‐consuming if the problems include the magnetic substances having fine structure. The homogenization of the structure makes it possible to analyze effectively the magnetic fields. The authors introduce a method to estimate the effective permeability of the homogenized substance. This method can be applied to any periodic structure made of magnetic substance. The magnetic shielding effects by the structures against direct‐current (DC) fields generated by electric railways are analyzed by using the present method. As a result, it is found that the overhead way and the protective fence near the railway work as a magnetic shield, whose effects can be improved by appropriate arrangement of those constructions. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Electr Eng Jpn, 160(4): 7–15, 2007; Published online in Wiley InterScience ( www.interscience.wiley.com ). DOI 10.1002/eej.20310     

反拍卖采购:一种新的采购模式

反拍卖采购技术以其新的理念和对信息技术的融合，能够使企业采购成本大幅度降低。通过对我国传统采购模式与反拍卖采购模式的对比分析，可以了解到反拍卖采购技术的应用前景。     

Use of rheology, dielectric analysis and differential scanning calorimetry for gel time determination of a thermoset

Measurements of gel time of the epoxy system DGEBA(n=0)/m-XDA were carried out using rheometry and dielectric analysis with the objective of checking the validity of Mangion-Johari equation (DEA) and Harran-Laudouard criterium (rheometry) for gel time determination. In this work, gel times obtained by rheometry and dielectric analysis are compared and conversions at gel time calculated. From the experimental results obtained for gel times it was found a reasonable agreement between the two techniques that lead to gel conversion values very close to those obtained using Flory equation.     

连轧机用人字轮齿轴断裂失效分析

用宏观断口分析、化学检验、力学性能测定、低倍检查、金相组织及夹杂物评定鉴别、受力分析及强度寿命定量估算的方法，对人字轮被动齿轴端断裂失效原因进行分析，并提出改进措施。     

舰载火箭武器系统随机响应分析

利用随机振动复模态分析，提出了一种求解时变线性系统，在确定性激励与随机激励共同作用下非平稳随机响应的计算方法，并以舰载火箭武器系统为研究对象，用该法探讨了海浪对舰面火箭发射初始扰动和系统振动特性的影响。