When modeling a decision problem using the influence diagram framework, the quantitative part rests on two principal components: probabilities for representing the decision maker's uncertainty about the domain and utilities for representing preferences. Over the last decade, several methods have been developed for learning the probabilities from a database. However, methods for learning the utilities have only received limited attention in the computer science community.
A promising approach for learning a decision maker's utility function is to take outset in the decision maker's observed behavioral patterns, and then find a utility function which (together with a domain model) can explain this behavior. That is, it is assumed that decision maker's preferences are reflected in the behavior. Standard learning algorithms also assume that the decision maker is behavioral consistent, i.e., given a model of the decision problem, there exists a utility function which can account for all the observed behavior. Unfortunately, this assumption is rarely valid in real-world decision problems, and in these situations existing learning methods may only identify a trivial utility function. In this paper we relax this consistency assumption, and propose two algorithms for learning a decision maker's utility function from possibly inconsistent behavior; inconsistent behavior is interpreted as random deviations from an underlying (true) utility function. The main difference between the two algorithms is that the first facilitates a form of batch learning whereas the second focuses on adaptation and is particularly well-suited for scenarios where the DM's preferences change over time. Empirical results demonstrate the tractability of the algorithms, and they also show that the algorithms converge toward the true utility function for even very small sets of observations. 相似文献
This paper considers fundamental and experimental aspects associated with the engineering design of a medical, non‐linear drilling device which exploits shape memory pseudoelasticity of NiTi wires. For this application it is important that the NiTi wires have a good fatigue resistance. This is why the present authors have previously determined the influence of various parameters on cyclic life, crack growth and stress state of pseudoelastic wires subjected to bending rotation fatigue. The actual drilling device has to withstand twist in addition to bending rotation because the free rotation is constrained by friction between the drill head and the bone material. In addition, friction between the wire and a NiTi guiding tube results in wear and this may well promote fatigue crack nucleation. In this paper, we explain the function of the medical drill. We then report results on the effect of the additional parameters (1) twist and (2) wear on the fatigue life of thin pseudoelastic NiTi wires. We finally discuss the implications of our experimental results for the design process of the medical drilling device. 相似文献
This paper proposes a method using probabilistic risk analysis for application to corrosion associated failures in grey cast iron water mains. External corrosion reduces the capacity of the pipeline to resist stresses. When external stresses exceed the residual ultimate strength, pipe breakage becomes imminent, and the overall reliability of a water distribution network is reduced. Modelling stresses and external corrosion acting on a pipe involves uncertainties inherent in the mechanistic/statistical models and their input parameters. Monte Carlo (MC) simulations were used to perform the probabilistic analysis. The reduction in the factor of safety (FOS) of water mains over time was computed, with a failure defined as a situation in which FOS becomes smaller than 1. The MC simulations yielded an empirical probability density function of time to failure, to which a lognormal distribution was fitted leading to the derivation of a failure hazard function. A sensitivity analysis revealed that the contribution of corrosion parameters to the variability of time to failure was more significant than the combined contributions of all other parameters. Areas where more research is needed are identified. 相似文献