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本文研究短时交通流预测。短时交通流预测是智能交通系统研究和实践的必要基础。本文提出和建立了一个短时交通流量预测模型,该模型利用一个基于规则的模糊系统,非线性地组合BP 神经网络模型和自适应卡尔曼滤波模型的交通流量预测结果,使得短时交通流量的预测结果更加准确可靠。该模型将传统方法和人工智能方法有机结合,一方面,利用人工神经网络强大的动态非线性映射能力,从而提高预测精度;另一方面,充分发挥卡尔曼滤波的静态线性稳定性,解决了单独使用BP神经网络进行预测时识别率不理想和可信度不高的问题。实验结果表明,本文提出的短时交通流预测模型具有较高的准确度和可靠度。 相似文献
43.
及时掌握大众关心的热点话题是企业进行商业创新和商务营销的重要前提。现有方法大都依赖于非结构化数据的处理或反复遍历样本集,使算法复杂性较高。文中从话题的统计特性出发,提出建立在结构化数据上的非参数方法。首先对单个话题构建表征话题传播扩散程度和关注聚焦程度的热度曲线;然后对这些形态丰富的热度曲线进行分类建模,得到不同类别曲线的共性特征及发展规律;最后使用分类模型上的加权投票规则预测新话题是否会发展成为热门话题。基于新浪微博平台进行数据收集和实验,结果表明该方法数据结构简单、效果良好、复杂度低且易于控制。 相似文献
44.
This study developed a methodology for formulating water level models to forecast river stages during typhoons, comparing various models by using lazy and eager learning approaches. Two lazy learning models were introduced: the locally weighted regression (LWR) and the k-nearest neighbor (kNN) models. Their efficacy was compared with that of three eager learning models, namely, the artificial neural network (ANN), support vector regression (SVR), and linear regression (REG). These models were employed to analyze the Tanshui River Basin in Taiwan. The data collected comprised 50 historical typhoon events and relevant hourly hydrological data from the river basin during 1996–2007. The forecasting horizon ranged from 1 h to 4 h. Various statistical measures were calculated, including the correlation coefficient, mean absolute error, and root mean square error. Moreover, significance, computation efficiency, and Akaike information criterion were evaluated. The results indicated that (a) among the eager learning models, ANN and SVR yielded more favorable results than REG (based on statistical analyses and significance tests). Although ANN, SVR, and REG were categorized as eager learning models, their predictive abilities varied according to various global learning optimizers. (b) Regarding the lazy learning models, LWR performed more favorably than kNN. Although LWR and kNN were categorized as lazy learning models, their predictive abilities were based on diverse local learning optimizers. (c) A comparison of eager and lazy learning models indicated that neither were effective or yielded favorable results, because the distinct approximators of models that can be categorized as either eager or lazy learning models caused the performance to be dependent on individual models. 相似文献
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介绍了目前我国煤矿瓦斯安全的现状和瓦斯涌出量预测的6种方法,分析了预测方法的原理和适用条件,并对预测方法的性能进行比较。 相似文献
48.
This paper resolves the problem of predicting as well as the best expert up to an additive term of the order o(n), where n is the length of a sequence of letters from a finite alphabet. We call the games that permit this weakly mixable and give a geometrical characterisation of the class of weakly mixable games. Weak mixability turns out to be equivalent to convexity of the finite part of the set of superpredictions. For bounded games we introduce the Weak Aggregating Algorithm that allows us to obtain additive terms of the form . 相似文献
49.
Question-Answering Bulletin Boards (QABB), such as Yahoo! Answers and Windows Live QnA, are gaining popularity recently. Questions
are submitted on QABB and let somebody in the internet answer them. Communications on QABB connect users, and the overall
connections can be regarded as a social network. If the evolution of social networks can be predicted, it is quite useful
for encouraging communications among users. Link prediction on QABB can be used for recommendation to potential answerers.
Previous approaches for link prediction based on structural properties do not take weights of links into account. This paper
describes an improved method for predicting links based on weighted proximity measures of social networks. The method is based
on an assumption that proximities between nodes can be estimated better by using both graph proximity measures and the weights
of existing links in a social network. In order to show the effectiveness of our method, the data of Yahoo! Chiebukuro (Japanese
Yahoo! Answers) are used for our experiments. The results show that our method outperforms previous approaches, especially
when target social networks are sufficiently dense.
相似文献
Tsuyoshi MurataEmail: |
50.
BP神经网络算法预测及其在飞参数据分析中的应用 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
针对飞机喘振参数受随机因素影响的特点,提出了用人工神经网络中BP网络对飞机发动机喘振预测.通过对喘振数据及机组实际振动数据的预测结果检验,证明该神经网络预测有利于飞机发动机喘振状态的预测精度. 相似文献