Network traffic prediction based on a new time series model

Fast and accurate methods for predicting traffic properties and trend are essential for dynamic network resource management and congestion control. With the aim of performing online and feasible prediction of network traffic, this paper proposes a novel time series model, named adaptive autoregressive (AAR). This model is built upon an adaptive memory‐shortening technique and an adaptive‐order selection method originally developed by this study. Compared to the conventional one‐step ahead prediction using traditional Box–Jenkins time series models (e.g. AR, MA, ARMA, ARIMA and ARFIMA), performance results obtained from actual Internet traffic traces have demonstrated that the proposed AAR model is able to support online prediction of dynamic network traffic with reasonable accuracy and relatively low computation complexity. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

透射型定时探测器

本文介绍了由微道板构成的透射型定时探测器,得到的飞行时间系统的时间分辨为280ps。并对进一步改善时间特性作了讨论。     

现场总线控制系统中GPS精确校时的实现

针对现场总线控制系统精确校时和时间统一的要求,提出了3种利用GPS授时功能对总线式系统进行校时的方案.以GPSDEC授时型接收机为例,其校时可通过RS-232接口端ASCII码信息和DCF77信号、及输出端自定义脉冲信号实现.开放性要求高的大中型总线网络及通用的智能设备,当总线系统中的通讯协议具有时钟功能时,可采用广播式校时法对设备逐个校时.顺序式校时主要针对下层智能设备种类较多的大型总线系统内的前置通讯,并按通讯机的先后依次校时.对时间精度要求较高且下层智能仪表具有时钟同步信号接口的小型总线系统,宜采用单点式校时.     

Minimum variance control and performance assessment of time-variant processes

This paper is concerned with (1) an explicit solution of a minimum variance control law for linear time-variant (LTV) processes in the transfer function form, and (2) performance assessment of LTV processes using minimum variance control as the benchmark. It is shown that there exists a time-variant, absolute lower bound of process variance that is achievable under LTV minimum variance control and can be estimated from routine operating data. This lower bound can subsequently be used to assess the benefit of implementing LTV control such as adaptive control. The proposed methods are illustrated through simulated examples and an industrial case study.     

Theoretical Investigation of Time Suboptimal Control of Industrial Manipulators Along Specified Paths

A method for the time suboptimal control of an industrial manipulator from an initial position and orientation to a final position and orientation as it moves along a specified path is proposed. Nonlinear system equations that describe the manipulator motion are linearized at each time step along the path. A method which gives the control inputs (joint angular velocities) for time suboptimal control of the manipulator is developed. In the formulation, joint angular velocity and acceleration limitations are also taken into consideration. A six degree of freedom elbow type manipulator is used in numerical examples to verify the method developed.     

Strategic appraisal of energy models for Mozambique

The needs that an energy supply system must meet are constantly changing, due to technological, social and political reasons. Effective energy planning is a dynamic process that is repeated periodically and adjusts to changing conditions. Energy decision makers and planners are no longer able to rely on inductive decision making since they have to investigate the effect of various decision parameters and possible future changes. To help in this process, models have been developed where estimates of future load growth, candidate power plants, fuels and other key factors can be introduced, from which the planners can evaluate decision parameters and the available alternatives. The paper presents the different methodologies and practices that are used by 11 energy models for energy demand forecasting, supply side management and generation expansion planning, demand side management and integrated resource planning. The paper concludes to the presentation of a strategic appraisal of the examined energy models appropriate for energy planning in Mozambique. Three models are proposed for conducting demand forecasting, generation expansion planning and demand side management. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

对增量CRL应用的一些研究

本文对PKIX依从系统中增量CRLs的应用进行了一些研究，包括：增量CRL的时间跨度对性能的影响及其最优选择；基于完全CRL与增量CRL检查证书状态以及构造新的完全CRL的算法。     

Prediction of spectral reflectance factor distribution of automotive paint finishes

It is necessary to determine the accurate reflectance of painted surfaces for the review of paint finishes by computer graphics (CG) before actual painting of the exterior color of automobiles, and for quality control during production and inspection processes. We have optimized a method for measuring reflectance by using a statistical technique. We have found that the reflectance of a painted surface is best measured at an incident angle of 60° and at five aspecular angles of 10°, 18°, 28°, 40°, and 90°. Our method makes it possible to accurately reproduce reflection characteristics of paint finishes containing special flake pigments, such as pearl mica. Also it was proved that our method can apply not only to solid and metallic coatings but to all painted surfaces. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Col Res Appl, 30, 275–282, 2005; Published online in Wiley InterScience (www.interscience.wiley.com). DOI 10.1002/col.20125     

Decision support for AIDS control programmes in Eastern Africa

The Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS) constitutes the worst hazard to health care systems in Eastern Africa. Misallocation of scarce resources of AIDS Control Programmes will unavoidably lead to additional infections and casualties. The following paper discusses a system dynamics model which allows to assess the impact of different interventions on a pattern population in Eastern Africa. It becomes obvious that short- and long-term consequences of these programmes differ significantly. The optimal allocation of resources, therefore, is highly complex and calls for decision support systems to sustain AIDS control programmes.     

非方程灰色系统方法在长期水文预报中的应用初探

基于水文过程的复杂性和影响因子信息收集不完善这一基本事实，本文将流域水文系统视为含有灰元和灰信息的灰色系统，并初步实践了非方程灰色预报方法在长期水文预报中的应用。方法在一定意义上脱离了传统的以方程为中心的预报模式，它既考虑预报因子对预报量的不同影响程度，又不过分强调预报量与预报因子的具体相关函数形式，为长期水文预报提供了一种新思路。文中列出了实例，效果令人满意。