基于决策树技术的日前市场清算电价预测

以澳大利亚昆士兰州电力市场为背景,采用决策树技术,建立了提前日的电力市场清算电价预测模型。详细介绍了决策树技术的原理及其在电价预测中的实现方法,考虑了非电价因素对电价预测的影响。实际结果表明该方法具有良好的预测效果和直观性。     

Transient aspects of inner wall temperatures at different spatial positions in fluidized bed evaporators

In this work, the instantaneous data of inner wall temperatures obtained at given axial positions but for different heated tubes or at various axial positions but at the same heated tube in a tube-bank fluidized bed evaporator with a vapor–liquid–solid external natural circulation flow were analyzed by employing linear and nonlinear time series analysis methods, including correlation dimension and Kolmogorov entropy analyses besides time domain, power spectrum and autocorrelation analyses. It is found that nonlinear characteristics of the wall temperature time series vary with spatial position in the evaporator at given operation conditions, and thus the multi-phase flow boiling behavior. However, the signals obtained at given axial position but different heated tubes in the evaporator exhibit more similar nonlinear evolution behavior, and those measured in the same heated tube but at different axial heights in the evaporator undergo more distinct nonlinear dynamic behavior. Multi-scale phenomena in different spatial positions are also found and discussed. These transient aspects of inner wall temperatures are closely related to the average holdup of solid particles and motion of vapor bubbles in vapor–liquid–solid flow. These results can provide some valuable information on the system modeling and controlling from the point of view of nonlinearity.     

ZPG系列盘式真空过滤机的研制与应用

详细介绍了ZPG系列盘式真空过滤机的主要特点、基本原理和主要技术参数。对盘式真空过滤机的过滤理论进行了系统的研究 ,以及为提高过滤系数和降低滤饼水分所采取的关键措施。与传统的真空过滤机进行了对比 ,表明ZPG系列盘式真空过滤机的滤饼水分可以降低 1 %～ 3 % ,过滤系数提高 3 0 %～5 0 % ,过滤每吨精矿的能耗可以降低 5 0 %左右 ,使得ZPG系列盘式真空过滤机在国内各大冶金矿山得到全面推广使用 ,创造了巨大的经济效益和社会效益。     

A complete VARMA modelling methodology based on scalar components

Abstract. This article proposes an extension to scalar component methodology for the identification and estimation of VARMA models. The complete methodology determines the exact positions of all free parameters in any VARMA model with a predetermined embedded scalar component structure. This leads to an exactly identified system of equations that is estimated using full information maximum likelihood.     

中国新闻纸需求量灰色预测

针对我国新闻纸需求量大且具有不确定性的特点,运用具有适用性广,预测准确率高等优点的灰色系统理论预测了我国新闻纸需求量,建立了需求量模型并对该模型的精度进行了检验。预测结果表明,该模型用于预测我国新闻纸需求量具有一定的可行性和有效性。     

Self-controlled case series analyses: Small-sample performance

Second-order expressions for the asymptotic bias and variance of the log relative incidence estimator are derived for the self-controlled case series model in a simplified scenario. The dependence of the bias and variance on factors such as the relative incidence and ratio of risk to observation period are studied. Small-sample performance of the estimator in realistic scenarios is investigated using simulations. It is found that, in scenarios likely to arise in practice, asymptotic methods are valid for numbers of cases in excess of 20-50 depending on the ratio of the risk period to the observation period and on the relative incidence. The application of Monte Carlo methods to self-controlled case series analyses is also discussed.     

Analytical prediction of composite beams response in fire situations

In this paper an extension of the method of the Fourier series expansion to the fire analysis of composite beams is presented. In particular the extension concerns the introduction of the temperature dependent interaction of all the components: steel beams, concrete slab and steel connectors. These last are considered of finite stiffness, and a proper account is given to the combined effect of thermal degradation of the properties, and stress amplification caused by the differential thermal expansion across the interface.The proposed method compares very well with some experimental fire tests of simply supported and framed composite beams. Due to its relative simplicity and speed, it can be used for design purposes in evaluating the critical temperature in terms of critical deflection. Finally we recall that the method is capable of dealing with every type of fastening distribution, such as discontinuous or variable length.     

南桐矿区龙潭煤系热演化及煤变质研究

川东地区二叠系龙潭煤系煤变质分带与褶皱关系密切，背斜部位变质浅，向斜部位变质深，且变化急剧．在对南桐矿区重点研究的基础上，用沉积速率比值法和沉积趋势法恢复了川东地区各时期的沉积厚度以及褶皱运动前后龙潭煤系的热演化史，并用Ｈｏｏｄ法确定了煤变质阶段，对川东的煤变质规律作出了合理的解释。     

MC^2电缆介质结构及阻抗分析

本文将用数学和实验两种方法证实MC～2电缆不仅能保证特性阻抗变化不超出电缆技术规范。而且能保证在设计频率范围内电缆结构反射损耗最小。     

一种按时间切换的最速控制方法

基于初始状态空间下的子空间概念，提出了一种按时间进行切换的最速控制方法，不需要求取开关线或开关面。数字仿真结果表明，采用这一方法是完全可行的。