Estimating coal production peak and trends of coal imports in China

More than 20 countries in the world have already reached a maximum capacity in their coal production (peak coal production) such as Japan, the United Kingdom and Germany. China, home to the third largest coal reserves in the world, is the world's largest coal producer and consumer, making it part of the Big Six. At present, however, China's coal production has not yet reached its peak. In this article, logistic curves and gaussian curves are used to predict China's coal peak and the results show that it will be between the late 2020s and the early 2030s. Based on the predictions of coal production and consumption, China's net coal import could be estimated for coming years. This article also analyzes the impact of China's net coal import on the international coal market, especially the Asian market, and on China's economic development and energy security.     

1990～2009年世界油、气、煤价格变化分析

1990～2009年世界原油、天然气、煤炭价格发生巨大变化,1990～1999年世界油、气、煤价格整体平稳,2000年以后出现大幅上涨,其中油价增长最快,煤价增长最少。2008年油、气、煤价格达到历史最高位,与1990～1999年10年均价相比分别上涨445%、256%、168%。油、气、煤价格比发生较大变化,油与气、煤价格差距拉大,煤/气价格比小幅下降。由于近10年来油、气、煤价格与消费量上涨,造成世界油、气、煤消费成本大幅上涨,1990～2008年世界油、气、煤消费成本年均增长率分别为7.0%、7.6%和6.6%,其中价格上涨是主要原因。未来油价将继续引领气、煤等能源价格的上涨。2009年,美国能源价格与1990～1999年均价相比,油、气、煤净进口成本仅增加1563亿美元,能源价格上涨的实际影响有所减弱;日本油、气、煤总进口成本上涨了869亿美元,能源价格上涨的实际影响较大;中国油、气、煤总成本上涨3059亿美元,考虑到国内生产份额,净进口成本仅增加617亿美元,能源价格上涨的实际影响较小,但未来能源价格上涨对我国的影响将日益增加。中国应深化能源市场体制改革,完善价格机制,积极参与国际合作。     

Investigating the benefits and perils of importing genetic material in small cattle breeding programs via simulation

Small breeding programs are limited in achieving competitive genetic gain and prone to high rates of inbreeding. Thus, they often import genetic material to increase genetic gain and to limit the loss of genetic variability. However, the benefit of import depends on the strength of genotype-by-environment interaction. Import also diminishes the relevance of domestic selection and the use of domestic breeding animals. Introduction of genomic selection has potentially exacerbated this issue, but is also opening the potential for smaller breeding programs. The aim of this paper was to determine when and to what extent small breeding programs benefit from importing genetic material by quantifying the genetic gain as well as the sources of genetic gain. We simulated 2 cattle breeding programs of the same breed that represented a large foreign and a small domestic breeding program. The programs differed in selection parameters of sire selection, and in the initial genetic mean and annual genetic gain. We evaluated a control scenario without the use of foreign sires in the domestic breeding program and 24 scenarios that varied the percentage of domestic dams mated with foreign sires, the genetic correlation between the breeding programs (0.8 or 0.9), and the time of implementing genomic selection in the domestic compared with the foreign breeding program (concurrently or with a 10-yr delay). We compared the scenarios based on the genetic gain and genic standard deviation. Finally, we partitioned breeding values and genetic trends of the scenarios to quantify the contribution of domestic selection and import to the domestic genetic gain. The simulation revealed that when both breeding programs implemented genomic selection simultaneously, the use of foreign sires increased domestic genetic gain only when genetic correlation was 0.9 (10%–18% increase). In contrast, when the domestic breeding program implemented genomic selection with a 10-yr delay, import increased genetic gain at both tested correlations, 0.8 (5%–23% increase) and 0.9 (15%–53% increase). The increase was significant when we mated at least 10% or 25% domestic females with foreign sires and increased with the increasing use of foreign sires, but with a diminishing return. The partitioning analysis revealed that the contribution of import expectedly increased with the increased use of foreign sires. However, the increase did not depend on the genetic correlation and was not proportional to the increase in domestic genetic gain. This represents a peril for small breeding programs because they could be overly relying on import with diminishing returns for the genetic gain, marginal benefit for the genetic variability, and large loss of the domestic germplasm. The benefit and peril of import depends on an interplay of genetic correlation, extent of using foreign sires, and a breeding scheme. It is therefore crucial that small breeding programs assess the possible benefits of import beyond domestic selection. The benefit of import should be weighed against the perils of decreased use of domestic sires and decreased contribution and value of domestic selection.     

《中新自贸协定》实施后对我国奶粉进口的影响分析

概述了《中新自贸协定》实施前后我国主要乳制品进口,尤其是奶粉进口变化情况,分析了近年来对从新西兰进口奶粉实施特殊保障措施的启动情况,以及2009年和2010年特殊保障措施启动前后国内奶粉进口的变化,并在此基础上进一步判断2011年我国即将启动的奶粉特保措施可能会对奶粉进口的影响。     

俄罗斯与天然气出口过境国的争端和启示

俄罗斯是世界上最重要的天然气生产和出口国之一,其天然气探明储量为44.8×1012m3,约占全球总量的23.9%。然而由于缺少直通消费国的输气管道,绝大部分天然气出口必须过境第三国。近年来,俄罗斯与乌克兰、白俄罗斯、土耳其、波兰等主要出口过境国在过境费、天然气价格、债务和贷款等问题上冲突不断,影响了俄罗斯对主要天然气消费市场的供应,成为制约俄罗斯天然气工业发展的不利因素。为了消除天然气出口的"瓶颈",俄罗斯开始加强与消费国的联系,提出绕过第三方的输气管道方案;而过境国也使出浑身解数,希望利用自己在俄罗斯天然气出口中的作用获得更多利益。我国已成为名副其实的能源进口大国,因此俄罗斯与其天然气出口过境国和欧洲间的博弈,对我国的能源安全有重要的借鉴意义。从长期来看,天然气很可能在世界一次能源消费从化石燃料向非化石燃料的过渡中发挥重要作用,我国应从国家和石油公司两个层面重视天然气生产,优化能源结构;应加快实现我国油气进口来源地和运输途径的多元化;能源进口单位应提高公关意识,特别是危机公关,处理好与供应国和过境国之间的关系;同时应增加天然气储备,建立国家层面的战略储备和企业层面的调峰储备。     

Crude oil import policy of Turkey: Historical analysis of determinants and implications since 1968

Turkey is one of the most energy import dependent countries in the world, suffering deeply from the economic and strategic burdens of oil importation. Our purpose is to determine the factors behind the crude oil import policy of Turkey and to measure their contribution to a well-organized import strategy. We implemented a principle component analysis to construct an Oil Import Vulnerability Index (OIVI) based on four factors, which are crude oil import dependency of primary energy consumption, crude oil import bill as a share of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), non-diversification of import sources, and share of oil in total energy import. The contribution of these factors to the OIVI is found to be approximately equal. While an overall deterioration in the OIVI has been observed during periods of increasing oil prices, better diversification of oil import sources has lead to significant improvements. We suggest Turkish policy-makers implement sound policies, emphasizing diversification of crude oil import sources and reduction of the share of crude oil in primary energy imports to increase energy supply security. This study has also demonstrated that it is possible to construct an index representing crude oil vulnerability caused by import dependency.     

东南亚八国天然气市场供需与管制现状

八个东南亚天然气资源国按照储量差异可分为三类,第一类是储量相对丰富的国家,包括印尼、马来西ⅢE和东帝汶,2012年底印尼和马来西亚的天然气剩余可采储量分别为2．93×10^12m3和1．32×10^12m3。2012年印尼天然气产量为7lO．7×10。In’,国内消费量358．1×10^8m3;同年马来西亚生产天然气652．4×10^8m3,国内消费量333．3×10^8m3。第二类是天然气储量处于中等水平的泰国、越南、文莱和缅甸,截至2012年底,四国天然气剩余可采储量分别为0．28×10^12m3、0．62×10^12m3、0．29×10^12m3和0．22×10^12m3：2012年四国天然气产量分别为413．9×10^8m3、94．0×10^8m3、125．7×10^8m3和127．3×10^m3。第三类是储量相对较小的菲律宾,2007～2011年其天然气产量与消费量始终维持在1000×10^8ft3上下。文莱、缅甸、东帝汶的天然气主要用于出口,越南、泰国、菲律宾以供应本国市场为主,马来西亚、印尼内需与外需能基本兼顾。缅甸和东帝汶的出口量将随着新项目的落实逐渐扩大：文莱和印尼的出口量将围绕某一水平波动：马来西亚价格管制政策的调整,将决定其出口量的变化以及能否逐步减少天然气的进口量;越南在LNG供应链建设完成后进口量将出现较快增长;菲律宾如果不改革管制政策,天然气的消费增长将停滞。     

Hydrogen supply scenarios for a climate neutral energy system in Germany

A climate neutral energy system in Germany will most likely require green hydrogen. Two important factors, that determine whether the hydrogen will be imported or produced locally from renewable energy are still uncertain though - the import price for green hydrogen and the upper limit for photovoltaic installations. To investigate the impact of these two factors, the authors calculate cost optimized climate neutral energy systems while varying the import price from 1.25 €/kg to 5 €/kg with unlimited import volume and the photovoltaic limit from 300 GW to unlimited. In all scenarios, hydrogen plays a significant role. At a medium import price of 3.75 €/kg and photovoltaic limits of 300–900 GW the hydrogen supply is around 1200 to 1300 TWh with import shares varying from 60 to 85%. In most scenarios the electrolysis profile is highly correlated with the photovoltaic power, which leads to full load hours of 1870 h–2770 h.     

发展我国大豆遗传改良事业 解决国内大豆供给问题

文章从近年我国大豆生产状况及进口大豆增长速率提出我国面临的大豆供给问题，从大豆在国人营养的历史地位和现代加工利用地位论证了保障供给的必要性，指出只有立足本国生产适当进口调济，才能真正保障供给。提出发展我国大豆生产的五方面措施，并就发展我国大豆遗传改良这个最重要的技术方面，提出了建立并完善我国大豆育种研究体系；围绕大豆遗传改良建设多学科相互交叉渗透的研究队伍和研究氛围； 对高产材料与高产理想型的塑造、杂种种子生产与杂种优势利用、重要品质性状指标的突破等关键问题组织协同攻关，突破一点带动全面；发展我国大豆基因组学研究，促进大豆育种技术革新等4点建议。     

进口二氯乙烷接卸作业与环境保护

简述了二氯乙烷的理化性质、作业标准和法规。通过沧州化工实业集团有限公司几年来进口操作实践,指出在二氯乙烷生产、储运过程应注意的安全及环保等问题