SARS流行预测分析

表面上突如其来的SARS本质上却有极规律的内在发展演化机制，遵从初始缓慢增长、加速、减速和稳定终止四个阶段总体道路，自然和社会生活领域众多事件演化都符合这一规律，因而可以运用广义的Logistic生长模型进行描述。基于先期流行的广东SARS感染病例数据，以及尚未结束的北京、全国2003年SARS流行统计数据，借助于最优化分析技术，运用广义的Logistic生长模型对该事件演化特征参量进行了辨识；在此基础上，又借助于广义生长模型的特例——Gompertz函数进行了演化过程的预测，并与其他生长模型结果进行了比较。研究表明，生长模型模拟结果均与实际数据有很好的一致性，可以用来预测事件的发生演化过程，此次SARS事件堪称生长模型的经典实例。     

Effect of Hydrogen Heat Treatment on the Chemical Composition of Aluminum Nitride Powder

The effect of hydrogen heat treatment on impurity contents in aluminum nitride powder of different fineness is studied. Thermodynamic calculations are provided pointing to the possibility of forming gaseous hydrogen compounds with impurity elements. It is established that as a result of treatment the contents of impurity elements, i.e. oxygen, carbon, sulfur, are reduced by a factor of 3-13. The optimum hydrogen heat treatment regime is determined: a temperature of 1323 K and an exposure time of 30 min.     

Response surface methodology applied for Orange II photocatalytic degradation in TiO2 aqueous suspensions

BACKGROUND: Heterogeneous photocatalysis is influenced by a number of parameters involving synergistic effects; hence, an experimental strategy design that considers interactions between the main variables is needed. The response surface methodology was applied for the investigation of photodegradation of 20 mg L^?1 Orange II in aqueous solutions and for optimization of color removal efficiency. Preliminary studies were performed to identify the parameters to be selected for optimization. RESULTS: The input variables considered for experimental design were: solution initial pH, oxidizing agent (H₂O₂) initial concentration and UV‐A irradiation time. The multivariate experimental design allowed the development of a quadratic response surface model to be used for the prediction of color removal efficiency over the full range of the experimental region. Under the optimum conditions established in the region of experimentation (pH = 6.9, [H₂O₂]₀ = 183 mg L^?1 and t = 32 min), a 100% color removal efficiency was obtained in experiments. CONCLUSIONS: It was found that the variables considered have important effects on color removal efficiency. The results demonstrate that the use of experimental design strategy is indispensable for successful investigation and adequate modeling of the process because the interdependence of the reaction parameters cannot be neglected. Copyright © 2008 Society of Chemical Industry     

文东油田连续气举优化配气数学模型建立及应用

针对连续气举在开发过程中出现的注入气利用效率低、综合效益差的问题，建立了供气能力有限时的优化配气数学模型，给出了解析法求解过程。文东油田现场试验表明，应用该技术可以实现连续气举井的合理配气，并提高油井产量，适合在油田推广应用。     

化学模式识别法在钢铁工业中的若干应用

本文涉及一种崭新的非函数数据处理法及其在工业诊断和优化中的应用。并对其进行要因分析和优化决策的原理作了介绍。结合钢铁工业生产中的实例进行了分析。还探讨了该方法在钢铁工业中应用的意义。     

Buckling optimization of hybrid-fiber multilayer-sandwich cylindrical shells under external lateral pressure

This paper describes a method of analyzing the maximum buckling strength of hybrid-fiber multilayer-sandwich cylindrical shells under external lateral pressure with respect to fiber orientations and weighting factors. Formulae for optimizing these parameters are presented and conditions for the application of these formulae are discussed. A discriminant is derived for assessing whether the hybrid sandwich cylindrical shells for given different unidirectional composites should reach the extreme value of critical pressure.     

Optimal operation of a multibasin reservoir system

A simulation-optimization procedure is presented for evaluating the extent of interbasin transfer of water in the Peninsular Indian river system consisting of 15 reservoirs on four river basins. A system-dependent simulation model is developed incorporating the concept of reservoir zoning to facilitate releases and transfers. The simulation model generates a larger number of solutions which are then screened by the optimization model. The Box complex nonlinear programming algorithm is used for the optimization. The performance of the system is evaluated through simulation with the optimal reservoir zones with respect to four indices, reliability, resiliency, vulnerability and deficit ratio. The results indicate that by operating the system of 15 reservoirs as a single unit the existing utilization of water may be increased significantly.     

Delivering Improvement from Truth — the Fragile Link Between Analysis and Effective Change

In the history of operations research in industry there has been an abundance of analyses and recommendations produced in millions of man hours by dedicated OR specialists. And yet the net improvement is significantly lower than expected. There are numerous reasons for this shortfall: incomplete analysis, too much theory, incomplete implementation, unreliable recommendations, or a combination of some of these reasons.
By describing several examples, the major reasons for the fragility of the link between recommendation and implementation will be reviewed. What has to be done today to increase the likelihood of implementing an OR recommendation and thus improve the performance of an industrial entity by using the power of OR tools will then be described.     

改进的GMDH方法及其在参数预报中的应用

本文在综合了ＧＭＤＨ方法中几种有效的改进算法的基础上，进一步研究了变量预选及部分表达式的构成问题，采用最优化方法确定变量最佳组成式并进行变量筛选，由此得到精度更高、稳定性较好的模型，将其应用于聚丙烯熔指数的预报，仿真结果令人满意。     

用MS-EXCEL的规划求解模块优化油品调合

叙述了利用MS-EXCEL通用电子表格软件中的规划求解模块优化油品调合的方法,并以汽油调合为例,说明构造数学模型的方法,以及实施优化求解的具体过程。