RATIONALITY AND ITS ROLES IN REASONING

The economic theory of rationality promises to equal mathematical logic in its importance for the mechanization of reasoning. We survey the growing literature on how the basic notions of probability, utility, and rational choice, coupled with practical limitations on information and resources, influence the design and analysis of reasoning and representation systems.     

矿床水文地质野外试验方法的合理性分析

结合具体的水文地质试验,对所获得的资料进行系统的分析.利用专门水文地质参数计算软件对试验数据进行处理,获得该地段的水文地质参数,并对获得的水文地质参数进行分析讨论;对采用的水文地质试验钻孔布置形式的合理性进行分析并提出相应的建议.     

基于动态聚类和合理性差别的证据理论改进算法

针对证据高度冲突时利用DS证据理论直接进行融合会得出不合理结果的问题,文中提出了一种新的证据融合方法.首先,利用动态聚类对证据进行分类,将含证据最多的类称为主类,其余类称为旁类.当旁类的证据个数与总的证据个数的比值小于或等于设定的阈值时,认为上述证据不合理并删除;当比值大于这一阈值时,则保留该旁类中的证据.然后,提出基于重心距离的方法确定剩余证据的可信度,求出期望证据,最后对其迭代融合.计算机仿真结果验证了该方法的有效性.     

基于出行时间预算的多模式多类用户城市交通均衡分析

为研究出行时间不确定条件下有限理性出行者的路径选择行为,以路段容量降级网络为研究对象,将路径自由流时间作为路径走行时间的下界,提出了关于路径走行时间的截断正态分布概率密度函数,建立了考虑路径走行时间边界的出行时间预算模型.通过考虑出行者有限理性的决策特征,以预算时间最小值的无差异阈值作为出行者可接受的最大出行时间,提出了有限理性置信水平的概念,即出行者可以在最短预算时间的无差异阈值内到达目的地的概率.然后,根据随机效用最大化理论,以出行者感知的有限理性置信水平为路径选择成本,构建了考虑可靠性的有限理性交通均衡模型,并给出了其等价的变分不等式问题.此外,设计了一个基于路径的求解算法对所提出的模型进行求解.最后,应用一个数值案例来验证所提出的模型和算法.算例结果表明：忽略路径的自由流时间将降低出行者准时到达的可能性,并且出行者可接受的无差异阈值尺度对其路径选择行为有较大影响.

     

软件人情感控制广义模型

借鉴大系统控制论中广义模型化方法,建立了软件人情感控制的广义模型.提出了行为受理智和情感共同控制的观点.从功能上将软件人情感控制模型划分为感觉模型、思维模型和行为模型,并给出了感觉模型、思维模型、行为模型三者之间的关系模型以及思维模型和行为模型两者之间的关系模型.     

引江济淮工程水源区论证分析

水源区论证是引调水工程前期工作的重要内容。引江济淮工程调水规模大且水源区受影响因素多、影响涉及范围广,因此,对该工程水源区进行论证较为复杂。在开展有关规划依据、经济社会发展需求分析的基础上,对引江济淮工程进行了取水合理性分析;在考虑规划水平年工程取水水源论证范围内水库群的联合调度、增耗水以及跨流域调水等因素的基础上,对水源的可靠性进行了分析,同时,也对工程给水源区水文情势、水域主要功能和纳污能力、咸潮上溯等方面可能受到的影响进行了分析研究。分析结果表明,引江济淮工程取水合理、水源可靠、对水源区造成的影响较小。     

沟槽式安装方式在消防管道中的应用分析

沟槽式安装作为一种新工艺在消防管道中应用,从工程施工管理的三大目标(质量、进度、成本)分析应用的合理性.     

Modeling Expectations with GENEFER – an Artificial Intelligence Approach

Economic modeling of financial markets attempts to model highly complex systems in which expectations can be among the dominant driving forces. It is necessary, then, to focus on how agents form expectations. We believe that they look for patterns, hypothesize, try, make mistakes, learn and adapt. Agents' bounded rationality leads us to a rule-based approach which we model using Fuzzy Rule Bases. For example if a single agent believes the exchange rate is determined by a set of possible inputs and is asked to state his relationship, his answer will probably reveal a fuzzy nature like: IF the inflation rate in the EURO-Zone is low and the GDP growth rate islarger than in the US THEN the EURO will rise against the USD.Low and larger are fuzzy terms which give a graduallinguistic meaning to crisp intervalls in the respective universes of discourse. In order to learn a Fuzzy Rule base from examples we introduce Genetic Algorithms and Artificial Neural Networks as learning operators. These examples can either be empirical data or originate from an economic simulation model. The software GENEFER (GEnetic NEural Fuzzy ExploreR) has been developedfor designing such a Fuzzy Rule Base. The design process is modular and comprises Input Identification, Fuzzification, Rule Base Generating and Rule Base Tuning. The two latter steps make use of genetic and neural learning algorithms for optimizing the Fuzzy Rule Base.     

甬杭地区天然气管道的设计优化

根据甬杭地区天然气用户的情况和需求,确定了合理的天然气长输管道线路走向和输气站场、压气站的设置,并根据具体情况,有针对性地进行了有关管道通过城镇地段的处理、天然气的计量交接和调峰的设计优化,可以有效地降低管道建设的建设投资,减少生产运行的能量消耗,最大限度地提高管道建设及运行的综合经济效益。     

Suffering, Philosophy, and Psychotherapy.

As R. B. Miller's article (see record 2005-11381-004) reflects, psychology and psychotherapy could benefit from a deeper appreciation of philosophical issues. This article discusses five themes that bear on how human suffering is understood, how scientific inquiry is conceptualized, and how new professionals are educated. The five themes include the bankruptcy of mind-body dualism, the presumed supremacy of logical rationality over whole system wisdom, preoccupations with certainty and justification, the positivist corruption of the scientific spirit, and the erosion of excellence in graduate education. It is argued that psychology and psychotherapy would benefit from more dedicated professional mentoring, the encouragement of open discourse as the heart of inquiry, and a deeper recognition of the fundamental role of compassion in the face of all human suffering. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)