组合核函数SVM在网络安全风险评估中的应用

核函数是SVM的关键技术,核函数的选择将影响着支持向量机的学习能力和泛化能力。各个普通核函数各有利弊,在分析各个普通核函数的基础上,采用了一种新的组合核函数,它既具有很好的泛化能力,也具有很好的学习能力,并将其构造的支持向量机应用到网络安全的风险评估中,与普通核函数构造的支持向量机的评估效果进行比较。结果表明组合核函数支持向量机不仅提高了分类速度,而且具有较高的分类精度。     

第三方物流企业顾客满意的要素分析

介绍了应用博弈论和危险分析的方法鉴定顾客对产品和服务不满意的关键因素和能够使顾客愉悦的关键因素,通过一组来自实际的数据及鉴定过程,证实了沙普利值法和归因危险度分析在制订最优市场战略中的理论及实用的优势.     

Hybrid Petri-nets for modelling and performance evaluation of supply chains

Modelling and analysis of complex and co-ordinated supply chains is a crucial task due to its inherent complexity and uncertainty. Therefore, the current research direction is to devise an efficient modelling technique that maps the dynamics of a real life supply chain and assists industrial practitioners in evaluating and comparing their network with other competing networks. Here an effective modelling technique, the hybrid Petri-net, is proposed to efficiently handle the dynamic behaviour of the supply chain. This modelling methodology embeds two enticing features, i.e. cost and batch sizes, in deterministic and stochastic Petri-net for the modelling and performance evaluation of supply chain networks. The model is subsequently used for risk management to investigate the issues of supply chain vulnerability and risk that has become a major research subject in recent years. In the test bed, a simple productive supply chain and an industrial supply chain are modelled with fundamental inventory replenishment policy. Subsequently, its performance is evaluated along with the identification and assessment of risk factors using analytical and simulation techniques respectively. Thus, this paper presents a complete package for industrial practitioners to model, evaluate performance and manage risky events in a supply chain.     

关于风险检测安全阀失效的分析系统

安全阀是保障石油化工设备正常运行的重要绀成部分,本文以目前广泛采用的AP1581标准为基础,建市安全阀的失效分析系统.该系统在计算机理和界向交互方式上改进原标准,可以根据工厂设备和安全阀管理数据,分析安伞阀的开启失效和泄漏频率,为提高石油化工牛产的安全性和可靠性提供重要的分析依据.     

区域水资源短缺风险决策研究

为选择区域水资源短缺风险管理方案,在水资源短缺风险分析和评价的基础上,研究了水资源短缺风险决策的期望益损值法,最后对包括北京和天津在内的首都圈进行水资源短缺风险决策.结果表明,要彻底解决首都圈的水资源短缺问题,南水北调具有重要的作用,在南水北调存在的情况下,其他水资源管理措施的投资规模应该适度,这样才能保证区域社会经济的可持续发展和区域水资源的可持续利用.     

基于文本挖掘的WUI火灾致灾因子网络构建及特征分析

为预防和减少WUI火灾的发生, 挖掘WUI火灾关键致灾因子, 厘清致灾因子间的作用机制. 本文首先基于本文挖掘技术从WUI火灾事故案例中得到致灾因子, 使用Apriori算法得到致灾因子之间的关联规则. 然后使用复杂网络理论构建WUI火灾致灾因子网络, 计算网络拓扑特征参数, 探析WUI火灾致灾因子网络特征. 最后引入WUI火灾致因链风险度指标, 挖掘出高风险连边, 并提出断链措施. 结果表明: WUI火灾致灾因子网络具有小世界特性, 高温、强风、干旱等对其他致灾因子影响较大. 燃烧废弃物、植物起火、应急响应速度、人为纵火、强风在不同致灾因子转换中具有重要作用, 应加强管控. 网络中风险度最高的边是燃烧废弃物→植物起火, 通过颁布禁止擅自燃烧废弃物等规定, 即可切断该风险链, 实现对WUI火灾的预防和主动控制.     

栀子食用人群栀子苷暴露评估

目的 了解我国居民栀子食用情况,评估我国栀子食用人群栀子苷暴露水平及健康风险。方法 通过文献检索和专项监测收集我国栀子中栀子苷含量数据,结合2019—2022年我国食药物质消费量调查数据,采用简单分布方法和概率评估方法获得我国不同人群通过食用栀子的栀子苷暴露水平及健康风险。结果 我国9省栀子食用率为10.32%,每日食用量均值为0.36 g,高消费人群每日栀子食用量为1.48 g。简单分布评估显示,9省栀子食用人群的栀子苷每日平均暴露量为0.29 mg/kg·BW,高消费人群（P95）栀子苷暴露量为1.28 mg/kg·BW,9省栀子食用人群中有17.20%的居民通过食用栀子的栀子苷暴露量超过其每日可耐受摄入量（TDI,0.386 mg/kg·BW）。河南省食用人群每日平均暴露量最高,为0.54 mg/kg·BW。概率评估结果显示,我国14.70%的栀子食用人群栀子苷暴露量超过TDI,具有潜在健康风险。结论 我国栀子食用人群的栀子苷暴露风险总体较低,但部分高消费人群（P95）存在健康风险。     

The Role of Polymorphisms at the Interleukin-1, Interleukin-4, GATA-3 and Cyclooxygenase-2 Genes in Non-Surgical Periodontal Therapy

Periodontitis is a multifactorial disease. The aim of this explorative study was to investigate the role of Interleukin-(IL)-1, IL-4, GATA-3 and Cyclooxygenase-(COX)-2 polymorphisms after non-surgical periodontal therapy with adjunctive systemic antibiotics (amoxicillin/metronidazole) and subsequent maintenance in a Caucasian population. Analyses were performed using blood samples from periodontitis patients of a multi-center trial (ClinicalTrials.gov {"type":"clinical-trial","attrs":{"text":"NCT00707369","term_id":"NCT00707369"}}NCT00707369=ABPARO-study). Polymorphisms were analyzed using quantitative real-time PCR. Clinical attachment levels (CAL), percentage of sites showing further attachment loss (PSAL) ≥1.3 mm, bleeding on probing (BOP) and plaque score were assessed. Exploratory statistical analysis was performed. A total of 209 samples were genotyped. Patients carrying heterozygous genotypes and single-nucleotide-polymorphisms (SNP) on the GATA-3-IVS4 +1468 gene locus showed less CAL loss than patients carrying wild type. Heterozygous genotypes and SNPs on the IL-1A-889, IL-1B +3954, IL-4-34, IL-4-590, GATA-3-IVS4 +1468 and COX-2-1195 gene loci did not influence CAL. In multivariate analysis, CAL was lower in patients carrying GATA-3 heterozygous genotypes and SNPs than those carrying wild-types. For the first time, effects of different genotypes were analyzed in periodontitis progression after periodontal therapy and during supportive treatment using systemic antibiotics demonstrating a slight association of GATA-3 gene locus with CAL. This result suggests that GATA-3 genotypes are a contributory but non-essential risk factor for periodontal disease progression.     

Gene Variants Related to Cardiovascular and Pulmonary Diseases May Correlate with Severe Outcome of COVID-19

Background: Severe outcomes of COVID-19 account for up to 15% of all cases. The study aims to check if any gene variants related to cardiovascular (CVD) and pulmonary diseases (PD) are correlated with a severe outcome of COVID-19 in a Polish cohort of COVID-19 patients. Methods: In this study, a subset of 747 samples from unrelated individuals collected across Poland in 2020 and 2021 was used and whole-genome sequencing was performed. Results: The GWAS analysis of SNPs and short indels located in genes related to CVD identified one variant significant in COVID-19 severe outcome in the HADHA gene, while for the PD gene panel, we found two significant variants in the DRC1 gene. In this study, both potentially protective and risk variants were identified, of which variants in the HADHA gene deserve the most attention. Conclusions: This is the first study reporting the association between the HADHA and DRC1 genetic variants and COVID-19 severe outcome based on the cohort WGS analysis. Although all the identified variants are localised in introns, they may be correlated and therefore inherited along with other risk variants, potentially causative to severe outcome of COVID-19 but not discovered yet.     

不对称信息和风险规避下的能力期权契约模型

针对物流服务供应链中物流能力订购与投资决策问题提出一种基于能力期权契约的协调机制,建立不对称成本信息和存在风险规避者情形下的双效规划模型,并通过优化方法研究Stackelberg主从博弈结构下的最优契约设计。研究结果表明：物流集成商提供的能力期权契约既能揭示物流分包商的真实成本信息,又能使自身有效规避市场风险,从而实现物流服务供应链效率的Pareto改进,但其效果取决于集成商抵抗市场风险的能力。进一步通过仿真算例说明了该能力期权契约的有效性。