空中交通预警与防撞系统(TCAS)风险及对策研究

空中交通预警与防撞系统TCAS对飞行安全非常重要,它能够通过对附近的飞机进行冲突检测,预测未来可能发生的危险,提示飞行员避免危险,帮助机组维持与其他飞机之间的空中交通安全间隔;但TCAS本身依然存在风险;在此对TCAS进行了半物理仿真测试,包括数字样机开发测试、物理样机开发测试、虚拟试飞以及数据统计分析等,对其各项功能进行测试与验证;在参阅众多相关文献的基础上,结合所做的研究工作,讨论了TCAS的主要风险,并针对这些风险,提出TCAS在设计、测试、操作方面需要改进的地方,从各方面完善TCAS,降低其风险,进一步保障飞行安全。     

Human error identification in human reliability assessment. Part 2: Detailed comparison of techniques

This is the second part of a two-part review of human error identification (HEI) approaches in human reliability assessment (HRA). Part 1 reviewed the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) context in which HRA occurs, and then detailed 12 HEI techniques which have evolved in the field of HRA. Part 2 attempts to compare the way these techniques perform against a range of criteria relevant to HEI theoretical and empirical validity, and practical usefulness in applied HRA. It is hoped that these comparisons will help assessors in the selection of techniques for practical applications. The comparisons also point to research and development needs in the area of applied HEI.     

铁矿石境外投资风险评估的模糊神经网络模型

论文将模糊理论与神经网络结合,对铁矿石境外投资所涉及的风险因素分别从资产影响、威胁频度两方面进行分析,建立了铁矿石境外投资的风险层次化结构,并构造了各因素所对应评判集的隶属度矩阵;综合运用模糊推理算法与神经网络仿真技术,对铁矿石境外投资的风险进行评估,进而判定铁矿石境外投资风险等级。最后,通过计算铁矿石境外投资的市场风险说明了算法的应用,并将结果与模糊综合评估得到的风险值进行比较,检测了模型的有效性。     

基于模拟攻击的高校网络安全风险评估研究

针对高校网络目前存在的安全风险,提出一种新型的基于模拟攻击的高校网络安全风险评估模型。该模型综合考虑了单机脆弱性和网络攻击威胁,首先结合原有基于单机脆弱性测出的风险值,模拟攻击者利用网络弱点的入侵过程,产生攻击状态图;然后基于生成的攻击状态图和原有风险值,识别攻击者入侵网络所利用的攻击行为、可能路线及导致的安全状态变化,评估潜在威胁的位置;并对新方法的风险值给出了定量分析,从而为针对性地实施风险控制决策提供更准确的依据。实验结果表明,该模型是正确的,并且平均要比目前存在的风险评估模型多发现大约50%的安全风险。由此可以看出,本模型方法的评估结论较传统方法更为准确。     

一种基于风险传播的信息系统风险评估方法

传统信息系统的风险评估方法未考虑节点的状态变化和风险的传播方向,且评估结果的准确性受专家主观性的影响,对此,提出了一种基于风险传播的信息系统风险评估方法.首先,确定节点的初始状态转移概率矩阵,并根据攻击属性对矩阵进行修正,得到节点状态转移概率;其次,基于系统风险传播网络拓扑图和节点属性值计算节点在各方向的传播概率;然后,利用三参数区间数方法获取节点威胁事件的量化值;最后,根据风险评估方法计算各节点的风险值.实验结果表明,基于风险传播方法的评估流程更客观、合理,可提高信息系统风险评估的整体性和准确性.     

西江流域压咸风险调度及其时空传递规律研究

枯水期珠江河口咸潮情势日益加重,径流不确定加剧了压咸风险,严重威胁沿线的供水安全。本文基于概率密度分布描述径流不确定性,构建了单源风险调度基本框架。以西江流域五座水库为研究对象,量化了预报误差与压咸风险的响应关系;揭示了压咸风险的时空传递规律;将压咸风险划分为3个等级;确定出各级风险越级传递的临界阈值。研究表明：随预报误差的增大,压咸风险提前且持续天数增加、风险率增大;压咸风险呈逐时段累积和从上游向下游、从支流向干流的时空传递规律;当预报误差超过±16%、±21%时,压咸风险从轻险越级至中险、中险越级至重险。研究成果对于西江流域压咸风险的调控和粤港澳大湾区的供水安全具有重要的应用价值。     

Well-Known and Novel Serum Biomarkers for Risk Stratification of Patients with Non-ischemic Dilated Cardiomyopathy

Non-ischemic dilated cardiomyopathy encompasses a wide spectrum of myocardial disorders, characterized by left ventricular dilatation with systolic impairment and increased risk of sudden cardiac death. In spite of all the therapeutic progress that has been made in recent years, dilated cardiomyopathy continues to be an important cause of cardiac transplant, being associated with an enormous cost burden for health care systems worldwide. Predicting the prognosis of patients with dilated cardiomyopathy is essential to individualize treatment. Late gadolinium enhancement-cardiac magnetic resonance imaging, microvolt T-wave alternans, and genetic testing have emerged as powerful tools in predicting sudden cardiac death occurrence and maximizing patient’s selection. Despite all these new diagnostic modalities, additional tests to complement or replace current tools are required for better risk stratification. Therefore, biomarkers are an easy and important tool that can help to detect patients at risk of adverse cardiovascular events. Additionally, identifying potential biomarkers involved in dilated cardiomyopathy can provide us important information regarding the diagnostic, prognostic, risk stratification, and response to treatment for these patients. Many potential biomarkers have been studied in patients with dilated cardiomyopathy, but only a few have been adopted in current practice. Therefore, the aim of our review is to provide the clinicians with an update on the well-known and novel biomarkers that can be useful for risk stratification of patients with non-ischemic dilated cardiomyopathy.     

The Causes and Potential Injurious Effects of Elevated Serum Leptin Levels in Chronic Kidney Disease Patients

Leptin is an adipokine that regulates appetite and body mass and has many other pleiotropic functions, including regulating kidney function. Increased evidence shows that chronic kidney disease (CKD) is associated with hyperleptinemia, but the reasons for this phenomenon are not fully understood. In this review, we focused on potential causes of hyperleptinemia in patients with CKD and the effects of elevated serum leptin levels on patient kidney function and cardiovascular risk. The available data indicate that the increased concentration of leptin in the blood of CKD patients may result from both decreased leptin elimination from the circulation by the kidneys (due to renal dysfunction) and increased leptin production by the adipose tissue. The overproduction of leptin by the adipose tissue could result from: (a) hyperinsulinemia; (b) chronic inflammation; and (c) significant lipid disturbances in CKD patients. Elevated leptin in CKD patients may further deteriorate kidney function and lead to increased cardiovascular risk.     

Effects of Berry Anthocyanins on Cognitive Performance,Vascular Function and Cardiometabolic Risk Markers: A Systematic Review of Randomized Placebo-Controlled Intervention Studies in Humans

Supplementation with anthocyanins, which are a type of flavonoids mainly found in various berries, is hypothesized to be a promising approach to lower the risk of developing cognitive decline. The aim of this systematic review was to provide a comprehensive overview of dietary intervention trials describing effects of berry anthocyanins on cognitive performance in humans, while also addressing potential underlying mechanisms. A total of 1197 articles were identified through a systematic search, and 49 studies reporting effects on cognitive performance (n = 18), vascular function (n = 22), or cardiometabolic risk markers (n = 32) were included. Significant improvements were observed on memory, while some of the studies also reported effects on attention and psychomotor speed or executive function. Vascular function markers such as brachial artery flow-mediated vasodilation were also affected and consistent evidence was provided for the beneficial effects of berry anthocyanins on endothelial function. Finally, studies reported improvements in blood pressure, but effects on metabolic risk markers (e.g. carbohydrate and lipid metabolism) were less consistent. In conclusion, this review provides evidence for the beneficial effects of berry anthocyanins on cognitive performance as memory improved. Whether observed anthocyanin-induced improvements in vascular function and blood pressure underlie beneficial effects on cognitive performance warrants further study.     

计及风电置信风险的源网协调多目标优化调度

为了更为合理灵活地评估风电高估/低估给电力系统优化调度带来的风险性以及降低调度决策的保守性,基于风电机会约束提出风电高估/低估置信风险功率偏差量化计算方法,并在决策变量中引入变压器变比调节和无功补偿容量优化,构建计及风电置信风险和源网协调运行的经济/风险多目标优化调度模型。提出一种基于可行性和非劣性综合排序回溯搜索算法,从而实现对调度模型的高效准确求解。IEEE 30节点系统算例结果验证了所提方法的有效性和优越性。