ON GENERALIZED FRACTIONAL PROCESSES

Abstract. A class of stationary long-memory processes is proposed which is an extension of the fractional autoregressive moving-average (FARMA) model. The FARMA model is limited by the fact that it does not allow data with persistent cyclic (or seasonal) behavior to be considered. Our extension, which includes the FARMA model as a special case, makes use of the properties of the generating function of the Gegenbauer polynomials, and we refer to these models as Gegenbauer autoregressive moving-average (GARMA) models. While the FARMA model has a peak in the spectrum at f = 0, the GARMA process can model long-term periodic behavior for any frequency 0 f 0.5. Properties of the GARMA process are examined and techniques for generation of realizations, model identification and parameter estimation are proposed. The use of the GARMA model is illustrated through simulated examples as well as with classical sunspot data.     

Use of rosemary extract in preventing oxidation during deep-fat frying of potato chips

The effect of using a rosemary extract on the stability of oil used for frying potato chips has been evaluated. Sliced potatoes were fried intermittently in soybean oil containing a natural extract from rosemary. The conditions used for frying were 185°C for 90 s. Two separate experiments, with and without replenishment of oil, were carried out. Oil samples were taken each day, not only from the frying pans but also by extraction with hexane from the chips. Changes in the induction period of the oil samples (Rancimat method) were determined. The induction period decreased as frying progressed. The reduction in the induction period was higher in the oil free of rosemary extract, and the chips were much darker in color. The oil containing the extract showed greater antioxidant activity, and reduced darkening and rancidity of the oil. Potato chips fried in the oil with added rosemary extract were more acceptable than chips fried in oil containing no extract until the last frying. The free radical scavenging activity of rosemary extract in comparison to other natural antioxidants was also determined by the reduction of O₂ ^.- in a hypoxanthine/xanthine oxidase system.     

Direct observation of induction period of MTO process with consecutive pulse reaction system

The initial transformation of methanol over HZSM-5 catalyst was investigated by a consecutive pulse reaction system. The reactant–catalyst contact time influenced the initial methanol transformation and the performances implied methanol reaction in induction period or under steady-state condition. The induction period, in which an organic-free HZSM-5 catalyst could be transferred to a working catalyst, were directly observed. The analysis result of the product stream predicted hydrogen-deficient species deposition over catalyst surface at the beginning of MTO reaction. The hydrogen transfer level of steady-state MTO reaction also varied with reaction contact time.     

核电工程项目调试工期的影响因素与优化

调试启动工作是核电工程项目进度控制中非常重要的环节,对整个工程的顺利投入运行有着重要的作用。如果调试工期过长,则会导致核电工程不能按期交付使用,从而对整个核电工程的进度造成影响。主要探讨了核电工程项目调试工期的影响因素和优化措施。     

气升式环流反应器强制振荡周期对传质影响的研究

在同一反应器中比较了不同振荡周期下的气液传质特性,为最优强制振荡周期的确定提供了实验依据和分析基础。选择体积传质系数及气含率作为传质研究的主要评价指标,实验结果表明,动态操作下的传质效果明显优于稳态,而不同振荡周期传质效果也大不一样。在0.8~2.4m3h-1的气速范围内,由静压力、导流管顶部截面流体速度、全床气含率(及传质系数)周期性变化所确定的振荡周期TP、TV、TK比稳态操作下的全床平均传质系数分别提高了3.92%~27.3%,2.35%~24.5%,28.2%~43.3%。由反应器内全床平均气含率或传质系数确定的振荡周期TK是最佳振荡周期。     

Time Deformation,Continuous Euler Processes and Forecasting

Abstract. A continuous Euler model has time‐varying coefficients. Through a logarithmic time transformation, a continuous Euler model can be transformed to a continuous autoregressive (AR) model. By using the continuous Kalman filtering through the Laplace method, this article explores the data application of a continuous Euler process. This time deformation of an Euler process deforms specific time‐variant (non‐stationary) behaviour to time‐invariant (stationary) data on the deformed time scale. With these time‐invariant data on the transformed time scale, one may use traditional tools to conduct parameter estimation and forecasts. The obtained results can then be transformed back to the original time scale. Simulated data and actual data such as bat echolocation and the US residential investment growth are used to demonstrate the usefulness of time deformation in forecasting. The results indicate that fitting a traditional autoregressive moving‐average (ARMA) model on an Euler data set without imposing time transformation leads to forecasts that are out of phase while the forecasts of an Euler model stay mostly in phase.     

基于半周期预测的减摇水舱控制方法及验证

可控被动式减摇水舱能够通过气阀控制空气连通道延长了水舱的固有周期,实现宽频船舶横摇减摇.关阀时刻和关阀时间与船体横摇运动规律相关,由于船体在海浪中的随机运动难以准确计算.小波神经网络的半周期预测控制方法,预测船体横摇的下一个半周期,实时计算控制参数,拓宽减摇频带.通过半实物仿真验证,较传统的方法减摇性能有明显提升.     

浅谈新时期医院局域网的安全维护

随着科技的发展,越来越多的医院建立了局域网,医院管理对于网络的依赖也El益加深。本文主要分析了医院局域网自身安全因素,并就医院局域网安全保护措施进行了探讨。     

PVC装置聚合单元扩能分析

详细叙述了齐鲁石化公司氯碱厂PVC装置产量由18.6万t/a改扩到23.0万t/a的情况,在分析了影响该装置扩能因素的基础上,提出了以“同步进料,带压出料”为主的改造方案,改造后聚合系统每天投料由原设计的16釜增加到19釜,设计操作时间内的生产能力可达到23.7万t/a,通过采用冷同步进料（含釜外脱氧）和带压出料等措施缩短了非反应时间和反应周期。     

高密度航天发射试验风险应对措施

以高密度条件下航天发射试验为对象,对发射试验风险因素进行了系统分析,在此基础上,构建了风险评估指标体系,并针对高密度条件下航天发射试验主要风险,从人力资源风险、设备资源风险和进度风险等方面提出了具体应对措施,对航天发射试验风险管理具有一定的现实意义。