Development of a system‐based water balance model to assess interrelated physical and anthropogenic constraints in lake and reservoir watersheds,applied to Coeur d'Alene Lake,Idaho, USA

This study presents a methodology for the development of a water balance model that uses publicly available data in a manner useful to water scientists and managers who manage complex lake and reservoir watersheds. The approach was applied to Coeur d'Alene Lake, a naturally occurring lake that is controlled by a dam located on its outlet (Spokane River) in North Idaho, USA. As in many other areas, the region surrounding Coeur d'Alene Lake has experienced high rates of population growth in recent years, and there is concern that, as consumptive water use increases, the lake will eventually not be able to be managed to simultaneously maintain the federally mandated minimum flow requirements in the Spokane River and also maintain the target summertime elevation of 2128 feet (648.6 m) for recreation and hydropower purposes. The complexity caused by the competing uses at Coeur d'Alene Lake makes it an excellent case study for similarly characterized watersheds. Both a natural flow model and regulated elevation model were developed, and sensitivity analysis was conducted on both models to evaluate which lake processes have the greatest effects on lake elevation, thereby requiring the most attention. A ‘low‐flow’ scenario was modelled to demonstrate the usefulness of the model and to inform Coeur d'Alene Lake regional stakeholders regarding the interrelationship between current water policy and the lake's physical behaviour under stressed conditions that could result from climate change. Model result indicates that, while lake elevation may be maintained at the summertime elevation of 2128 feet (648.6 m) under a low‐flow scenario, the outflows in the Spokane River start to approach the minimum flow requirements in the month of August. The developed approach is useful where publicly available data exist and allows for economic, yet rigorous, water resources systems evaluation without requiring significant field data collection.     

Flood Inundation Modelling for Mid‐Lower Brisbane Estuary

This study utilizes a two‐dimensional hydrodynamic model to calibrate and validate an inundation model for the Brisbane River estuary in Queensland, Australia. The bathymetry data used in the hydraulic model are derived from one arc second (1 s) shuttle radar topography mission digital elevation model, and the two‐dimensional hydraulic model is parameterized using the generated bathymetry with four open boundaries with water level observations and roughness coefficients. The calibration performance is evaluated by comparing the simulated results with the digitized records during the January 2013 flood event (a low magnitude event) at three gauging stations. The calibrated model is validated with water level data and available discharge data during the January 2011 flood (a large magnitude event) at four gauging stations located along the Brisbane River. Different performance indices are applied to demonstrate that the developed model performs well during calibration and validation. A sensitivity analysis is presented to assess the influence of riverbed elevation changes on the model because the main uncertainty of the model is the bathymetry data. The proposed model with the shuttle radar topography mission digital elevation model‐derived riverbed elevation for the Brisbane estuary is able to predict the flood inundation extent at an accuracy of 66.9% which is higher than or comparable with the accuracies of the existing studies. However, it is expected that the accuracy will increase if some improved bathymetry data become available in the future. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Explicit numerical simulation of suspension flow with deposition in porous media: influence of local flow field variation on deposition processes predicted by trajectory methods

A new explicit numerical simulation (ENS) method based on lattice-gas automata (LGA) is introduced here for the flow of solid/fluid suspensions with deposition in porous media. The ENS method explicitly resolves the dynamics of the individual solid particles and the suspending fluid in the domain defined by the pore walls and solid particle surfaces. After describing the new method, it is applied to the study of solid/fluid suspension flow with deposition in a constriction and in a model random porous solid. This study clearly demonstrates that the deposits strongly influence the local flow fields, which in turn affect the deposition process indicating that this interplay should be modelled if accurate results are desired from trajectory methods.     

Brain mass estimation by head circumference and body mass methods in neonatal glycaemic modelling and control

Introduction

Hyperglycaemia is a common complication of stress and prematurity in extremely low-birth-weight infants. Model-based insulin therapy protocols have the ability to safely improve glycaemic control for this group. Estimating non-insulin-mediated brain glucose uptake by the central nervous system in these models is typically done using population-based body weight models, which may not be ideal.

Method

A head circumference-based model that separately treats small-for-gestational-age (SGA) and appropriate-for-gestational-age (AGA) infants is compared to a body weight model in a retrospective analysis of 48 patients with a median birth weight of 750 g and median gestational age of 25 weeks. Estimated brain mass, model-based insulin sensitivity (S_I) profiles, and projected glycaemic control outcomes are investigated. SGA infants (5) are also analyzed as a separate cohort.

Results

Across the entire cohort, estimated brain mass deviated by a median 10% between models, with a per-patient median difference in S_I of 3.5%. For the SGA group, brain mass deviation was 42%, and per-patient S_I deviation 13.7%. In virtual trials, 87–93% of recommended insulin rates were equal or slightly reduced (Δ < 0.16 mU/h) under the head circumference method, while glycaemic control outcomes showed little change.

Conclusion

The results suggest that body weight methods are not as accurate as head circumference methods. Head circumference-based estimates may offer improved modelling accuracy and a small reduction in insulin administration, particularly for SGA infants.     

Aromatic gas oil cracking under realistic FCC conditions in a microriser reactor

A paraffinic hydrowax feed spiked with naphthalene, anthracene, and phenanthrene was cracked in a once-through microriser reactor at 575 °C and with a catalyst-to-oil (CTO) ratio of 4.8 g_cat g_oil⁻¹. The conversion by cracking reactions is limited to the paraffinic fraction of the feed and the alkyl groups associated with the benzene ring in aromatic compounds; the aromatic probes did not crack under the applied conditions, and in fact an additional amount of naphthalene was formed by complex dealkylation and hydrogen transfer reactions. The ‘uncrackabilty’ of aromatics was directly demonstrated by processing an aromatic gas oil, containing 33.3 wt% aromatics. Experiments were performed with residence times between 0.05 and 8.2 s, keeping the temperature (525 °C) and CTO ratio (5.5 g_cat g_oil⁻¹) constant. The data was interpreted with a simplified first-order five-lump kinetic model, where approximately 19 wt% of the feed was found to be uncrackable. HCO (feedstock) conversion took mainly place during the first two seconds and coke was only formed during the first 50 ms of catalyst-oil contact. Gasoline was not overcracked to gas. Approximately 50 wt% of the LCO fraction was formed during this 50 ms and did not change thereafter.     

Characterization of the reactivity of limestones with SO2 in a fluidized bed reactor

The reaction between SO₂ and calcined limestone particles has been studied in a fluidized bed combustor. Measurements of sorbent reactivity with SO₂ were made for small batches of limestone injected into the combustor. Simultaneous continuous combustion of bituminous coal provided conditions like those of a boiler for study of the sulphation reaction. A semi-empirical rate model of the CaO-SO₂ reaction has been developed. External mass transfer of SO₂, diffusion within the particles and chemical reaction are taken into account. The limestone reactivity with SO₂ is characterized by two parameters which are dependent on the temperature and sorbent particle size. A model for predicting the limestone requirements in a fluidized bed boiler has been developed. Parameters from the batch experiments are included. The predictions for sulfur retention agree with the experimental results. In addition, effects of operating conditions (gas velocity, recycle, limestone particle size) on the retention of SO₂ were simulated using the model.     

Selecting the forgetting factor in subset autoregressive modelling

Abstract. Conventional methods to determine the forgetting factors in autoregressive (AR) models are mostly based on arbitrary or personal choices. In this paper, we present two procedures which can be used to select the forgetting factor in subset AR modelling. The first procedure uses the bootstrap to determine the value of a fixed forgetting factor. The second procedure starts from this base and applies the time-recursive maximum likelihood estimation to a variable forgetting factor. In one illustration using real exchange rates, we demonstrate the effect of the forgetting factor in subset AR modelling on ex ante forecasting of non-stationary time series. In a second illustration, these two procedures are applied to time-update forecasts for a stock market index. Subset AR models not including a forgetting factor act as a set of benchmarks for assessing ex ante forecasting performance, and consistently improved forecasting performance is demonstrated for these proposed procedures.     

Analytical and numerical study of the densification of carbon/carbon composites by a film-boiling chemical vapor infiltration process

The film-boiling chemical vapor infiltration (CVI) process is a fast process developed for composite material fabrication, and especially carbon/carbon composites. In order to help define optimal conditions, a local 1D model has been developed to study the densification front which establishes itself during the processing of a carbon/carbon fibrous preform. The model features heat conduction, precursor gas diffusion, densification reactions and structural evolution of the porous medium. The effects of total mass flux, Thiele modulus, porous medium geometry on front behavior parameters such as width, velocity and residual porosity are presented as semi-analytical correlations. An existence criterion is produced, which involves a minimal heat flux. Comparison between process-scale experiments and simulation is then possible by inserting the semi-analytical results achieved in the local study of the front into a light numerical model involving the entire preform. The model has been validated with respect to previous experimental and numerical data.     

Feasibility of Sludge Ozonation for Stabilization and Conditioning

A pilot-scale sludge treatment plant was built to investigate the feasibility of ozonation processes for waste activated sludge treatment. Ozonation of wastewater sludge resulted in mass reduction by mineralization as well as by supernatant and filtrate recycle. Another advantage of sludge ozonation is a significant improvement of settleability and dewaterability. Experimental results showed that mass reduction of 70% and volume reduction of 85% compared with the control sludge was achieved through the sludge ozonation at a dose of 0.5?gO₃/gDS. It is also interesting to note that the filterability deteriorates up to ozone dose of 0.2?gO₃/gDS and then improves considerably at a higher ozone dose. The filterability could be improved by chemical conditioning even at a low ozone dose. The economic feasibility by cost analysis reveals that ozonation processes can be more economical than other alternative processes for sludge treatment and disposal at small-sized wastewater treatment plants.