Materials modelling: A bridge from atoms to bulk properties

The use of molecular-level materials modelling techniques in the development of advanced performance polymers is discussed, with particular emphasis upon bridging the large difference in the scales of dimensions between atomic structure and fabricated parts. The advantages and disadvantages of bulk quantitative structure-property relations and atomistic modelling are assessed, and the method of group interaction modelling is suggested as a means of bridging the dimensional scales.After a brief introduction to the concept of group interaction modelling, examples of modelling the engineering properties of polymers are presented which are difficult to model quantitatively by any other means. The important phase transitions from the crystal and glassy states of matter to those of rubber- and liquidlike states are shown quantitatively to be due to the same isoenergetic condition. The viscoelastic properties of a polymer are critical for many applications and expressions are derived for the loss and storage components of the complex modulus, with reference to failure initiation conditions. The effect of crosslinking in thermosets upon the glass transition temperature and viscoelastic properties is outlined. Finally, the scaling of time from atomic vibrations to the years involved in creep and ageing effects are discussed.     

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当今世界各国执行的商品天然气定价原则主要包括完全成本原则、平均利润原则、长期边际成本定价原则、比价合理原则和供求平衡原则等。文章分析了我国天然气价格的演变历史及现状，说明了现行价格形成的制度原因。研究了天然气商品从生产到运输再到销售各环节的价格确定方法，以此为基础给出了一个即考虑天然气商品价值又考虑竞争和政府管制因素的天然气商品的定价公式。文章最后指出，在真正的、完全竞争的天然气市场建立之前，商品天然气的价格主要应按完全成本原则进行确定。     

Adaptive user modelling in intelligent telephone and email assistants

With the burgeoning complexity and capabilities of modern information appliances and services, user modelling is becoming an increasingly important research area. Simple user profiles already personalise many software products and consumer goods such as digital TV recorders and mobile phones. A user model should be easy to initialise, and it must adapt in the light of interaction with the user. In many cases, a large amount of training data is needed to generate a user model, and adaptation is equivalent to retraining the system. This paper briefly outlines the user modelling problem and work done at BTexact on an intelligent personal assistant (IPA) which incorporates a user profile. We go on to describe FILUM, a more flexible method of user modelling, and show its application to the telephone assistant and email assistant components of the IPA, with tests to illustrate its usefulness.     

Multi-dimensional analysis of soil moisture dynamics in trickle irrigated fields. II: Model testing

The mathematical model which was developed in part I of this work for multi-dimensional analysis of soil moisture in irrigated fields is converted into computer algorithms. The algorithms are capable of emulating many field conditions of practical applications during both design and operation phases. The model is subjected to various tests, the results of which are reported here. The tests in various modes of simulations verified the numerical performance of the model and the accuracy of its predictions. The model provides a powerful tool for detailed studies of soil moisture dynamics in one or multi-dimensional problems irrigated fields     

Reaction scheme and kinetic modelling for the MTO process over a SAPO-18 catalyst

A kinetic model for simulation of the MTO process over SAPO-18 catalyst in a wide range of operating conditions has been proposed. The kinetic model predicts the experimental evolution of reaction products with time on stream, which follows three consecutive periods: initiation (where olefin production increases), a period of maximum olefin production and a period in which this production decreases. The kinetic scheme takes into account these three steps that evolve with time on stream: formation of active intermediate compounds, an step where olefins are formed by reaction of oxygenates (methanol/DME) with these intermediates and deactivation of intermediates by degradation to coke. The presence of water in the reaction medium attenuates the reaction rate of these steps. Discrimination of kinetic equations and calculation of the parameters of best fit have been carried out by solving the mass conservation equations of the individual components of the kinetic scheme together with the kinetic equation for deactivation and taking into account the effect of water on the kinetics of each step.     

Crushing behaviour of the energy absorbing 'tensor skin' panels

ABSTRACT Research results concerning the simulation of the crushing behaviour of composite systems with energy absorption characteristics are presented in the present work. The study is focused on the ‘tensor skin’ concept, an energy absorbing composite system that was originally developed to improve the crashworthiness of helicopters under water impact and which is promising for utilization in the construction of the lower part of composite fuselage aircraft. The ‘tensor skin’ concept comprises a folded or corrugated composite construction, which upon loading unfolds by forming ‘plastic hinges’, leading to an increase in the load bearing capability of the structure. The numerical modelling issues and the critical aspects of the simulation are discussed. Verification of the numerical simulation procedure is performed by experimental work. The experimental results utilized to assess and validate the numerical procedure were derived within the European Research Project ‘Design for Crash Survivability – CRASURV’ (BRITE – Aeronautics Area). The results of the simulations are generally in good agreement with experimental data.     

Improving Cost Estimates of Construction Projects Using Phased Cost Factors

Central to cost-based competition is the capability to accurately predict the cost of delivering a project. Most literature on cost estimation focuses on specific estimation methods as generic techniques and little attention has been paid to the unique requirements at each project stage. This note attempts to identify the critical factors for effective estimation at various stages of typical construction projects. Drawing from organization control theory and cost estimating literature, this note develops a theoretical framework that identifies the critical factors for effective cost estimation during each project phase of a conventional construction project. The underlying logic is that as a cost estimating effort progresses, both task programmability and output measurability improve. As a result, control effort will shift from input-oriented control to a combination of output and behavior control.     

Developing Cost Response Models for Company-Level Cost Flow Forecasting of Project-Based Corporations

The difficulty in applying the standard curve (S-curve) and cost-schedule integration (CSI) techniques for company-level cost flow forecasting in a project-based industry is the prerequisite of forecasting future unknown individual projects and contract classifications. By analyzing cost flows at the company level through a pool of macroeconomic and internal financial data, this paper proposes an innovative approach to firm-specific model estimation. First, a series of data transformations introduce linear relationships between cost, macroeconomic, and internal financial variables. Second, multivariate regression analysis is employed for initial model building. Third, for the purposes of model restructuring, a subsequent application of Yule–Walker estimates and incomplete principal component analysis is used. This paper uses a sample of four project-based construction firms to demonstrate model performance. Using this methodology, mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) values of the forecasting models range from 0.27 to 0.60%. As such, the transformed cost, macroeconomic, internal financial data could strongly predict company-level cost flow forecasting. While converting the predicted cumulative cost data to periodic cost flows, the MAPE values were augmented, ranging from 7.04 to 17.55%, thus, requiring future research.     

Application of Support Vector Machines in Assessing Conceptual Cost Estimates

Total conceptual cost estimates and the assessment of the quality of these estimates are critical in the early stages of a building construction project. In this study, the support vector machine (SVM) model for assessing the quality of conceptual cost estimates is proposed, and the application of SVM in construction areas is investigated. The results show that the SVM model assessed the quality of conceptual cost estimates slightly more accurately than the discriminant analysis model. This shows that using the SVM has potential in construction areas. In addition, the SVM model can assist clients in their evaluation of the quality of the estimated cost and the probability of exceeding the target cost, and in their decision on whether or not it is necessary to seek a more accurate estimate in the early stages of a project.