State-space ARIMA for supply-chain forecasting

ARIMA is seldom used in supply chains in practice. There are several reasons, not the least of which is the small sample size of available data, which restricts the usage of the model. Keeping in mind this restriction, we discuss in this paper a state-space ARIMA model with a single source of error and show how it can be efficiently used in the supply-chain context, especially in cases when only two seasonal cycles of data are available. We propose a new order selection algorithm for the model and compare its performance with the conventional ARIMA on real data. We show that the proposed model performs well in terms of both accuracy and computational time in comparison with other ARIMA implementations, which makes it efficient in the supply-chain context.     

A Global Maximum Error Controller Based Nonlinearity Aware TPWL Method for Reducing Nonlinear Systems

Abstract

Model order reduction is a common practice to reduce large order systems so that their simulation and control become easy. Nonlinearity aware trajectory piecewise linear is a variation of trajectory piecewise linearization technique of order reduction that is used to reduce nonlinear systems. With this scheme, the reduced approximation of the system is generated by weighted sum of the linearized and reduced sub-models obtained at certain linearization points on the system trajectory. This scheme uses dynamically inspired weight assignment that makes the approximation nonlinearity aware. Just as weight assignment, the process of linearization points selection is also important for generating faithful approximations. This article uses a global maximum error controller based linearization points selection scheme according to which a state is chosen as a linearization point if the error between a current reduced model and the full order nonlinear system reaches a maximum value. A combination that not only selects linearization points based on an error controller but also assigns dynamic inspired weights is shown in this article. The proposed scheme generates approximations with higher accuracies. This is demonstrated by applying the proposed method to some benchmark nonlinear circuits including RC ladder network and inverter chain circuit and comparing the results with the conventional schemes.     

A case-deletion diagnostic for penalized calibration estimators and BLUP under linear mixed models in survey sampling

The penalized calibration technique in survey sampling combines usual calibration and soft calibration by introducing a penalty term. Certain relevant estimates in survey sampling can be considered as penalized calibration estimates obtained as particular cases from an optimization problem with a common basic structure. In this framework, a case deletion diagnostic is proposed for a class of penalized calibration estimators including both design-based and model-based estimators. The diagnostic compares finite population parameter estimates and can be calculated from quantities related to the full data set. The resulting diagnostic is a function of the residual and leverage, as other diagnostics in regression models, and of the calibration weight, a singular feature in survey sampling. Moreover, a particular case, which includes the basic unit level model for small area estimation, is considered. Both a real and an artificial example are included to illustrate the diagnostic proposed. The results obtained clearly show that the proposed diagnostic depends on the calibration and soft-calibration variables, on the penalization term, as well as on the parameter to estimate.     

A practical Equivalent Electrical Circuit model for Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cell (PEMFC) systems

An alternative Equivalent Electrical Circuit for Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cells is modelled in this study. Both I–V characteristics and H₂ consumptions corresponding to generated power under load and no-load conditions are investigated. For this purpose, H₂ consumptions and I–V characteristics of three different sized PEMFCs are tested. There is a very good harmony between the model results and measured values (relative error %0.7, %6.4 and %2.5 for FC-A, FC-B and FC-C respectively). In the proposed model current passes only on parallel resistance and not on serial resistance at no-load condition. Thus, a FC with higher parallel resistance should be preferred. Another key output of this study is that based on the proposed model, performance comparison of FCs can be performed with the parameters defined in this work. Proposals made in this study can easily be used for performance analysis of FCs under for both steady state and transient analysis.     

SINA: Semantic interpretation of user queries for question answering on interlinked data

The architectural choices underlying Linked Data have led to a compendium of data sources which contain both duplicated and fragmented information on a large number of domains. One way to enable non-experts users to access this data compendium is to provide keyword search frameworks that can capitalize on the inherent characteristics of Linked Data. Developing such systems is challenging for three main reasons. First, resources across different datasets or even within the same dataset can be homonyms. Second, different datasets employ heterogeneous schemas and each one may only contain a part of the answer for a certain user query. Finally, constructing a federated formal query from keywords across different datasets requires exploiting links between the different datasets on both the schema and instance levels. We present Sina, a scalable keyword search system that can answer user queries by transforming user-supplied keywords or natural-languages queries into conjunctive SPARQL queries over a set of interlinked data sources. Sina uses a hidden Markov model to determine the most suitable resources for a user-supplied query from different datasets. Moreover, our framework is able to construct federated queries by using the disambiguated resources and leveraging the link structure underlying the datasets to query. We evaluate Sina over three different datasets. We can answer 25 queries from the QALD-1 correctly. Moreover, we perform as well as the best question answering system from the QALD-3 competition by answering 32 questions correctly while also being able to answer queries on distributed sources. We study the runtime of SINA in its mono-core and parallel implementations and draw preliminary conclusions on the scalability of keyword search on Linked Data.     

High-resolution ISAR imaging of fast rotating targets based on pattern-coupled Bayesian strategy for multiple measurement vectors

Very high resolution inverse synthetic aperture radar (ISAR) imaging of fast rotating targets is a complicated task. There may be insufficient pulses or may introduce migration through range cells (MTRC) during the coherent processing interval (CPI) when we use the conventional range Doppler (RD) ISAR technique. With compressed sensing (CS) technique, we can achieve the high-resolution ISAR imaging of a target with limited number of pulses. Sparse representation based method can achieve the super resolution ISAR imaging of a target with a short CPI, during which the target rotates only a small angle and the range migration of the scatterers is small. However, traditional CS-based ISAR imaging method generally faced with the problem of basis mismatch, which may degrade the ISAR image. To achieve the high resolution ISAR imaging of fast rotating targets, this paper proposed a pattern-coupled sparse Bayesian learning method for multiple measurement vectors, i.e. the PC-MSBL algorithm. A multi-channel pattern-coupled hierarchical Gaussian prior is proposed to model the pattern dependencies among neighboring range cells and correct the MTRC problem. The expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm is used to infer the maximum a posterior (MAP) estimate of the hyperparameters. Simulation results validate the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed algorithm.     

A conceptualization of intended learning outcomes supporting self‐regulated learners in indicating learning paths

Intended learning outcomes (ILOs) indicate what learners will be able to achieve after they are taught. Traditionally, ILOs are expressed as plain text or unstructured documents. What if all ILOs of a specific course of study can be conceptualized through a structured diagrammatic technique? It was hypothesized that learners can benefit from this conceptualization in learning, especially in self‐regulated learning. The aim of this study was to investigate whether the ILOs represented in unstructured or structured formats can facilitate learners to identify learning paths. The results revealed that the mean ratings of all learning paths were statistically significantly higher with structured ILOs.     

Optimization of quinacridone magenta,Cu-phthalocyanine cyan,and arylide yellow ink films formulated for maximum color gamut

Investigation of ink formulation options with the purpose to obtain color-gamut-optimal set of Cyan Magenta and Yellow CMY inks is reported. Implementation of the thickness dependent Kubelka-Munk model on multiple ink layers having different and well-defined thicknesses, provides characteristic absorption and scattering (K, S ) spectra of the ink ingredients. These data enable accurate computation of the reflectance spectrum and thus the L*a*b* color coordinates for any given ink thickness or substrate. Pigment materials investigated are quinacridone as magenta, copper-phthalocyanine as cyan, and arylide yellow. Scaling the peak of the absorption band to the number of molecules per unit area for the specific pigments studied in this article provides the molar extinction coefficients, 1.21 × 10⁴ , 4.7 × 10⁴ , and 3.3 × 10⁴ cm²/millimole respectively, regardless of the different ink formulations used, in accord with Avogadro's principle. Having a set of three pairs of K, S spectra is used to compute the color gamut of any CMY color combination in the L*a*b* space as a function of ink layer thickness and formulation. Using an iterative algorithm, a color-gamut-optimal set of CMY inks is obtained.