变化环境下干旱事件演变驱动机制研究进展

随着气候变化异常和人类活动的日益加剧,干旱事件呈现广发、频发、并发的态势,给社会带来重大损失,为有效应对变化环境下的干旱问题,系统梳理了变化环境下干旱事情演变驱动机制研究进展。干旱事情演变驱动机制研究过程大致分为两个阶段,第一阶段为初期发展阶段（20世纪80年代初到21世纪初）,主要研究单一驱动因子,多应用统计分析方法;第二阶段为发展阶段（21世纪初至今）,对干旱事件演变的驱动机制分析逐渐深入,考虑了气候变化和人类活动的共同影响,但大多只是定性分析。目前干旱事件演变驱动机制研究尚处于起步阶段,研究成果尚不够系统深入,未来需提出干旱事件演变的归因识别方法,加强干旱事件演变的驱动机制分析。     

实验教学过程中突发事件的处理策略

通过介绍社会上突发的几起恐怖暴力案件,引出校园突发事件的预防和处理策略。针对化学实验教学课堂上出现的几例突发事件,给出简单有效的处理方法,目的是引起社会和学校的强烈关注,减少意外伤害,同时提出分析和建议,以期预防此类事件的发生。     

四川盆地东部华蓥山断裂滑动分析与古应力重建

华蓥山断裂是分隔川东隔挡式褶皱带和川中平缓区的重要断裂。本文通过对华蓥山断裂滑动和古应力分析表明,华蓥山甑裂经历了三期重要的断裂活动：早期近S—N向挤压、中期近E—W向挤压和晚期NE--SW向挤压,分别与三叠纪华北板块和扬子板块的碰撞、燕山期雪峰山隆起向北西的推挤和喜山期印度板块与欧亚板块的碰撞有关。     

以城市事件为推动力的城市发展与环境景观建设

城市事件已成为推动当代城市发展和环境景观建设的重要契机。通过分析国外一些利用举办事件推动城市发展的成功案例,特别是德国慕尼黑市的先进经验,探讨如何有效地控制和引导这种短期、大型城市事件对城市发展产生持续而积极的影响。同时结合我国的快速城市化进程,分别从事件的申办选址、组织运行以及后续发展三个阶段进行论述,提出制造事件和利用事件的城市发展策略。提倡将事件的申办、组织和后续的地区发展都列入城市发展的具体行动计划中,使事件成为促进城市发展规划实施的巨大推动力。最后强调风景园林师在其中应发挥的作用。     

应对气候变化和极端天气事件的适应性规划

鉴于气候变化和极端天气事件频发对我国的影响,本文介绍了应对气候变化事件的适应性规划研究及其对我国的借鉴意义。首先,总结了国外尤其是美国气候变化适应性规划研究的现状及其政府规划部门采取的适应性规划和措施。其次,讨论了适应性规划研究的内容和整体框架,概括了国外适应性规划的理论和研究方法。同时,从理论方法、方案实施和法律规章等方面分析了适应性规划遇到的问题和挑战。本文旨在探讨气候变化的适应性规划研究的必要性和研究框架,以引起学术、政府和民间对适应性规划研究的重视,为我国更好地应对未来气候变化的影响打下基础。     

Achieving the Sustainable Development Goals: improving water services in cities affected by extreme weather events

Abstract

This article discusses how key risks from extreme weather events might affect progress towards meeting Sustainable Development Goals 6 and 11 in cities in developing countries. It outlines the magnitude of the existing shortfall in safe water and sanitation services, and how climate change will exacerbate existing problems. It argues that the performance of many governments thus far has lacked urgency and purpose. Unless governments in particular become more committed, with redoubled effort, the goals are unlikely to be achieved.     

影响黄土丘陵区次降水泥沙输移比的水文要素

以桥沟小流域为研究对象,利用该流域不同地貌部位的野外径流场及沟道水文站网观测资料,计算了不同场次降水的泥沙输移比,较为系统地研究了影响桥沟流域次降水泥沙输移比的水文要素。结果表明:土壤前期含水量、流域的降水过程特征、洪峰流量、径流量、水流含沙量是影响次降水泥沙输移比的主要水文要素;提出了表示降水、径流、泥沙对泥沙输移比影响的表征参数,即降水峰现系数、径流侵蚀力和泥沙相对容重。     

未来突发事件对企业新技术商业化决策的影响

分析了当新技术商品价格服从混合布朗运动／泊松跳跃过程时的企业战略决策,并着重考察了未来突发事件对企业决策的影响．通过模型的一组模拟数值解发现当未来有不利事件发生时,企业进入市场和退出市场的临界价格均随该事件的平均发生率的增加而增加;而当未来有有利事件发生时,进入市场和退出市场的临界价格则随该事件的平均发生率的增加而下降．     

Optimizing social media message dissemination problem for emergency communication

Social media is increasingly being used as a communication bridge between government, emergency responders and managers, and the general public in extreme events. Passing information through social media channels enables individuals to send and receive content in real-time and without limitation of location and geography. While the use of social media in extreme event situations has become prevalent, there is often little strategy involved in message dissemination and too little understanding of the effects that underlying online social networks have on message distribution. In this study, we introduce a formal model for social media message dissemination in social networks through time. Our proposed model includes emphasis on single and multiple message scenarios and examines key communication characteristics in the development of more intentional and targeted social messaging strategies. We present a detailed experimental design on randomly generated networks and real-world sub-networks of the Twitter social graph and discuss our findings. We also include a Tabu Search procedure for solving single-message problem and discuss its potential value for large-scale problems in real-world applications.     

Supportive friendships moderate the association between stressful life events and sexual risk taking among African American adolescents.

Objective: This study examined whether uncontrollable stressful life events were associated with sexual risk taking among adolescents across a 1-year period, and whether supportive friendships modified associations. Design: Participants were 159 sexually active African American adolescents (57% male; mean age [SD] = 17.0 [1.5] years at baseline). Participants were recruited for in-person interviews through random digit dialing in one inner-city neighborhood characterized by high rates of poverty and crime relative to the surrounding city. Main Outcome Measures: Dependent variables included substance use before sexual activity and inconsistent condom use. Results: Among adolescents who reported low levels of supportive friendships, uncontrollable stressors were associated with greater levels of sexual risk taking over time. In contrast, uncontrollable stressors were not associated with sexual risk taking among adolescents who reported high social support from friends; risk taking was typically moderate to high among these adolescents. Conclusion: Different processes may explain sexual risk taking among adolescents with varying levels of social support from friends. Adolescents with low support may be prone to engagement in health risk behavior as a stress response, while adolescents with high support may engage in risk behavior primarily due to peer socialization of risk. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)