未来突发事件对企业新技术商业化决策的影响

分析了当新技术商品价格服从混合布朗运动／泊松跳跃过程时的企业战略决策,并着重考察了未来突发事件对企业决策的影响．通过模型的一组模拟数值解发现当未来有不利事件发生时,企业进入市场和退出市场的临界价格均随该事件的平均发生率的增加而增加;而当未来有有利事件发生时,进入市场和退出市场的临界价格则随该事件的平均发生率的增加而下降．     

Optimizing social media message dissemination problem for emergency communication

Social media is increasingly being used as a communication bridge between government, emergency responders and managers, and the general public in extreme events. Passing information through social media channels enables individuals to send and receive content in real-time and without limitation of location and geography. While the use of social media in extreme event situations has become prevalent, there is often little strategy involved in message dissemination and too little understanding of the effects that underlying online social networks have on message distribution. In this study, we introduce a formal model for social media message dissemination in social networks through time. Our proposed model includes emphasis on single and multiple message scenarios and examines key communication characteristics in the development of more intentional and targeted social messaging strategies. We present a detailed experimental design on randomly generated networks and real-world sub-networks of the Twitter social graph and discuss our findings. We also include a Tabu Search procedure for solving single-message problem and discuss its potential value for large-scale problems in real-world applications.     

Supportive friendships moderate the association between stressful life events and sexual risk taking among African American adolescents.

Objective: This study examined whether uncontrollable stressful life events were associated with sexual risk taking among adolescents across a 1-year period, and whether supportive friendships modified associations. Design: Participants were 159 sexually active African American adolescents (57% male; mean age [SD] = 17.0 [1.5] years at baseline). Participants were recruited for in-person interviews through random digit dialing in one inner-city neighborhood characterized by high rates of poverty and crime relative to the surrounding city. Main Outcome Measures: Dependent variables included substance use before sexual activity and inconsistent condom use. Results: Among adolescents who reported low levels of supportive friendships, uncontrollable stressors were associated with greater levels of sexual risk taking over time. In contrast, uncontrollable stressors were not associated with sexual risk taking among adolescents who reported high social support from friends; risk taking was typically moderate to high among these adolescents. Conclusion: Different processes may explain sexual risk taking among adolescents with varying levels of social support from friends. Adolescents with low support may be prone to engagement in health risk behavior as a stress response, while adolescents with high support may engage in risk behavior primarily due to peer socialization of risk. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Battlemind debriefing and battlemind training as early interventions with soldiers returning from iraq: Randomization by platoon.

Researchers have found that there is an increase in mental heath problems as a result of military-related traumatic events, and such problems increase in the months following return from combat. Nevertheless, researchers have not assessed the impact of early intervention efforts with this at-risk population. In the present study, the authors compared different early interventions with 2,297 U.S. soldiers following a year-long deployment to Iraq. Platoons were randomly assigned to standard postdeployment stress education, Battlemind debriefing, and small and large group Battlemind training. Results from a 4-month follow-up with 1,060 participants showed those with high levels of combat exposure who received Battlemind debriefing reported fewer posttraumatic stress symptoms, depression symptoms, and sleep problems than those in stress education. Small group Battlemind training participants with high combat exposure reported fewer posttraumatic stress symptoms and sleep problems than stress education participants. Compared to stress education participants, large group Battlemind training participants with high combat exposure reported fewer posttraumatic stress symptoms and lower levels of stigma and, regardless of combat exposure, reported fewer depression symptoms. Findings demonstrate that brief early interventions have the potential to be effective with at-risk occupational groups. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

The Titanic sunk,so what? Project manager response to unexpected events

Projects are inherently uncertain and face unexpected events, from small changes in scope to unforeseen client’s bankruptcy. This paper studies how project managers respond to such events and how successful and unsuccessful responses differ from the perspective of the practitioner. We analysed 44 unexpected events faced by 22 experienced project managers in defence and defence-related organisations. The project managers compared two unexpected events that they faced, one that they considered the response successful and the other unsuccessful. We identified three pillars supporting successful responses to unexpected events: (1) responsive and functioning structure at the organisational level, (2) good interpersonal relationship at the group level and (3) competent people at the individual level. The events and respective responses analysed suggest that improvement in project management can be achieved by better managing these three pillars, allowing project and programme managers to “create their own luck”.     

Total utility demand prediction system for dwellings based on stochastic processes of actual inhabitants

This article describes a new methodology to calculate the likely utility load profiles (energy such as power, natural gas, space heating and cooling, and other thermal requirements, as well as city water) in a dwelling. This calculation takes into account the behavioural variations of the dwelling inhabitants. The proposed method contains a procedure for cooling load calculations based on a series of Monte Carlo simulations where the heating, ventilating and air conditioning (HVAC) on/off state and the indoor heat generation schedules are varied, time-step by time-step. A data set of time-varying inhabitant behaviour schedules, with a 15-min resolution, generated by the authors in previous studies and validated by a comparison analysis to several field measurement data sets, was integrated into the model. The established model, which is called the total utility demand prediction system, can be applied to, for example, likely estimation of an integrated space maximum requirement, such as the total load of a building or an urban area. In a series of numerical experiments, huge discrepancies were found between the conventional results and those considering the time-varying inhabitant behaviour schedules. In particular, deriving the dynamic state change, of having the HVAC on/off from the inhabitants' schedules, was found to be a significant factor in the maximum cooling and heating loads.     

Consequence-based structural design approach for black swan events

The metaphor of black swan refers to unpredictable events like 9/11, the Indian Ocean tsunami, or the Oklahoma City Federal Building bombing, that cause catastrophic consequences for structural system safety. The likelihood of occurrence for such unforeseen events cannot be estimated from the observed data or prognosticated by experts. The absence of event and likelihood information renders futile the application of usual risk-based methods for design. Therefore, a shift from the probabilistic approach to consequence-based structural design is necessary for coping with the unexpected demands. This is accomplished through the conceptual development of a system capacity oriented design approach, where structural members are designed for variable reliabilities based upon their contribution to causing adverse system consequences. Information about general structural integrity encoded in the stiffness matrix is applied, using member consequence factors ranging from 0 to 1, for determining a member’s contribution towards system response. The structural system is designed using member consequence factors as additional partial factors on the resistance side of the design equations. The consequence-based scheme does not need a triggering hazard event (or its likelihood) and is an apt structural design approach for black swan events.     

Supervisory control design based on hybrid systems and fuzzy events detection. Application to an oxichlorination reactor

This paper presents a supervisory control scheme based on hybrid systems theory and fuzzy events detection. The fuzzy event detector is a linguistic model, which synthesizes complex relations between process variables and process events incorporating experts' knowledge about the process operation. This kind of detection allows the anticipation of appropriate control actions, which depend upon the selected membership functions used to characterize the process under scrutiny. The proposed supervisory control scheme was successfully implemented for an oxichlorination reactor in a vinyl monomer plant. This implementation has allowed improvement of reactor stability and reduction of raw material consumption.     

How to hit scylla without avoiding charybdis: Comment on Perruchet, Tyler, Galland, and Peereman (2004).

M. Pe?a, L. L. Bonatti, M. Nespor, and J. Mehler (see record 2002-06215-001) argued that humans compute nonadjacent statistical relations among syllables in a continuous artificial speech stream to extract words, but they use other computations to determine the structural properties of words. Instead, when participants are familiarized with a segmented stream, structural generalizations about words are quickly established. P. Perruchet, M. D. Tyler, N. Galland, and R. Peereman (see record 2004-21166-008) criticized M. Pe?a et al.'s work and dismissed their results. In this article, the authors show that P. Perruchet et al.'s criticisms are groundless. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)