混沌优化方法在灰色非线性水环境规划中的应用

通过把灰色参数和灰色变量视为混沌变量，利用混沌运动的遍历性、随机性、规律性以及对初值敏感性的特点，尝试应用具有优秀随机搜索性能的混沌优化方法求解水环境灰色非线性规划问题。实例研究证明，该方法具有搜索速度快、求解精度高的优点，因此对目标函数的优化结果比常规数值解法、遗传算法更加有效。     

SARS流行预测分析

表面上突如其来的SARS本质上却有极规律的内在发展演化机制，遵从初始缓慢增长、加速、减速和稳定终止四个阶段总体道路，自然和社会生活领域众多事件演化都符合这一规律，因而可以运用广义的Logistic生长模型进行描述。基于先期流行的广东SARS感染病例数据，以及尚未结束的北京、全国2003年SARS流行统计数据，借助于最优化分析技术，运用广义的Logistic生长模型对该事件演化特征参量进行了辨识；在此基础上，又借助于广义生长模型的特例——Gompertz函数进行了演化过程的预测，并与其他生长模型结果进行了比较。研究表明，生长模型模拟结果均与实际数据有很好的一致性，可以用来预测事件的发生演化过程，此次SARS事件堪称生长模型的经典实例。     

Analytical prediction of composite beams response in fire situations

In this paper an extension of the method of the Fourier series expansion to the fire analysis of composite beams is presented. In particular the extension concerns the introduction of the temperature dependent interaction of all the components: steel beams, concrete slab and steel connectors. These last are considered of finite stiffness, and a proper account is given to the combined effect of thermal degradation of the properties, and stress amplification caused by the differential thermal expansion across the interface.The proposed method compares very well with some experimental fire tests of simply supported and framed composite beams. Due to its relative simplicity and speed, it can be used for design purposes in evaluating the critical temperature in terms of critical deflection. Finally we recall that the method is capable of dealing with every type of fastening distribution, such as discontinuous or variable length.     

Measuring the errors of form of industrial surfaces: prediction and optimization

To acquire maximum information on the geometrical errors of industrially made surfaces at a minimum cost, a method for estimating conditional probabilities of a random signal (Bayesian prediction) is applied to three-dimensional metrology. First, a surface is interpolated between data acquired on a coordinate measuring machine (CMM). Then, for a given probability, limit surfaces are computed that bind a region of space containing the known data and the most probable interpolation of the missing data of the surface. These bounds can be treated as the surface; their points can be considered as if they were actual CMM data when fitting a tolerance zone or a datum feature to the data. For Bayesian prediction, the basic hypotheses on the signal are stationarity, ergodicity, and gaussian density. Deviations from these hypotheses and their consequences on the prediction are taken into account and corrections are proposed.     

LOW-CYCLE FATIGUE UNDER NON-PROPORTIONAL LOADING

A series of strain-controlled, low-cycle fatigue experiments have been conducted on 42CrMo steel under various loading paths including circular, square, cruciform, and rectangular paths. Present experiments have shown that there is additional hardening under non-proportional cyclic loading. Non-proportional cyclic additional hardening also results in a shorter life for multiaxial low cycle fatigue. A non-proportionality measure of strain path based on both a physical basis and macromechanical phenomena is proposed. The loading path effect on additional hardening is also described well. Low-cycle fatigue damage accumulation and the evolution process under non-proportional loading is analysed via the Continuum Damage Mechanics Model of Chaboche. A non-proportinality measure is introduced in the damage evolution equation and a modified Coffin-Manson type formula is derived. A novel fatigue life prediction approach based on the critical-plane concept of Brown and Miller is proposed.     

改进的GMDH方法及其在参数预报中的应用

本文在综合了ＧＭＤＨ方法中几种有效的改进算法的基础上，进一步研究了变量预选及部分表达式的构成问题，采用最优化方法确定变量最佳组成式并进行变量筛选，由此得到精度更高、稳定性较好的模型，将其应用于聚丙烯熔指数的预报，仿真结果令人满意。     

A prediction method for thermal conductivity of alternative refrigerants in the liquid phase

A prediction method for the thermal conductivity of halocarbon refrigerants in the saturated liquid state in the reduced temperature range 0.3 to well above 0.9 is presented in this paper. The aim of the method is to present a very simple calculation of the transport property useful for engineering purposes. The method determines thermal conductivity as a sole function of the reduced temperature and requires the knowledge of a parameter dependent upon easily available physical constants characteristic of each compound. The method is validated against experimental data available in the literature, giving average absolute deviations which are usually less than 5%, with maximum absolute deviations generally less than 10%. An extension of the method to estimate thermal conductivity of binary mixtures is also presented, along with a comparison with the few experimental data available in the literature.Paper presented at the Twelfth Symposium on Thermophysical Properties, June 19–24, 1994, Boulder, Colorado, U.S.A.     

Predictive modelling of the 3-D structure of interleukin-13

Several atomic structures are now available for the family ofhelical cytokines, which includes growth hormone as well asmany of the interleukins. Using structural information fromfive members of this family, two alternative models of interleukin(IL)-13 are proposed. IL-13 has biological properties similarto those of IL-4 and, like the other interleukins, is a potentiallyimportant pharmaceutical target. The model of IL-13 is discussedand compared with the known interleukin structures.     

正庚烷-甲苯-三甘醇三元体系液-液相平衡数据的测定与关联

利用气相色谱法测定了常压下２５℃、４０℃和５０℃时正庚烷－甲苯－三甘醇体系的液－液相平衡数据，采用峰面积归一化法定量，所得数据准确、可靠。用ＮＲＴＬ模型对所测数据进行了热力学关联，求出了相应的模型参数。用该模型对本三元体系进行了预测，结果令人满意。     

工业固体核磁Magmonitor用于聚烯烃质量参数测试方法的建立

利用实际采集的系列试样 ,在工业固体核磁Magmonitor(IMR)上建立了标准曲线 ;在IMR上运行标样的核磁信号后 ,对FID信号与实验数值之间的匹配使用 32个误差分析因子进行分析 ,并在Cregcon软件下运行回归分析 ,将结果转化成仪器预测模型。结果表明 ,测试相对偏差在 10 %以内 ,数据重现性好 ,而粉料与共聚物的测试误差有待改进。将IMR测试结果与不同测试方法进行比较 ,建议测试前对粉料进行脱气与脱水处理