Consensus in innovation contest categorisation by means of fuzzy partitions

Consensus decision-making is fuzzy by nature, yet fuzzy consensus decision-making in a medium to large number of decisions is not widely used since it demands additional information that requires extra decision-maker effort. Consensus decision-making rests on properly measured agreement. This paper proposes a fuzzy measure of agreement through fuzzy kappa based on fuzzy partitions. These fuzzy partitions enable decision-makers to assess their decisions with a degree of confidence. A fuzzy partition is built for each decision-maker considering his/her confidence degrees when categorising a set of alternatives or solutions. This enables decision-makers to more easily capture the fuzzy nature of the decision. In addition, this paper presents a real-life experiment based on a innovation contest to show the feasibility of using confidence degrees in real-life applications compared to traditional consensus decision-making. The results suggest that the use of confidence degrees improves the level of agreement in the consensus decision-making process through fuzzy kappa coefficients, and it also improves the level of agreement in the consensus decision-making process.     

Visual inspection and bridge management

This paper estimates visual inspection quantitatively prior to its implementation in a Bridge Management System using a Value of Information (VoI) approach employing a Bayesian pre-posterior analysis. Information from a significant number of real bridges from Ireland and Portugal are considered in this regard following existing commercial practices. The variation of different parameters on the estimated VoI is investigated including the assumed probabilistic models of the prior bridge state, the likelihood of inspector assigned condition ratings and the economic setting surrounding the cost matrix for maintenance decision alternatives. The values of no information, perfect information and imperfect information are presented and the change in the optimal strategy based on such information is assessed. The effect of human imperfections in assessment and difference in condition rating scale are also estimated. The studies and findings of this paper are expected to allow a better insight for practising engineers and researchers working in bridge management.     

Deriving priority weights from intuitionistic fuzzy multiplicative preference relations

Intuitionistic fuzzy multiplicative preference relations (IFMPRs), as an extension of multiplicative preference relations, can denote the decision-makers’ (DMs’) preferred and nonpreferred degrees simultaneously. Just as any other type of preference relations, consistency is crucial to guarantee the rational ranking orders. Thus, this paper introduces a new consistent concept for IFMPRs that is a natural extension of crisp case and overcomes the issues in the previous concepts of consistency. To judge the consistency of IFMPRs, several programming models are constructed, and an approach to deriving completely consistent IFMPRs is presented. Considering incomplete case, consistency-based models are built to determine missing values that can address incomplete IFMPRs with the ignored objects, namely, all information for them is unknown. After that, group decision-making with IFMPRs is studied. To measure the agreement degree between the DMs’ individual IFMPRs, a new consensus index is defined, and an interactive algorithm to improve the consensus is offered. Based on the consistency and consensus analysis, a new method to group decision-making with IFMPRs is developed. Finally, case studies are offered to show the application of the new procedure and to compare it with previous methods.     

Application of the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process in multi-criteria decision in noise action plans: Prioritizing road stretches

Traffic noise is one of the major environmental impacts of road infrastructures. Critical study of published Noise Action Plans (NAP) signals a widespread lack of objective criteria and methodologies for prioritizing actions against noise as well as the suitability of solutions. The present paper develops a methodology to sort, by priority, road stretches included in a NAP. In obtaining and allocating weights to variables involved in the decision-making problem (“Road Stretch Priority Variables”) to define a normalized numerical index (“Road Stretch Priority Index”), Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) with two different defuzzification methods is applied to the results of an expert panel. Comparison of the outcomes of both FAHP versions, plus analysis of the results of a case study, enables to determine the relative influence of these variables in the problem. An objective and reasoned methodology for the prioritized classification of road stretches according to noise problems is thereby validated.     

Multiple attribute group decision making methods based on intuitionistic linguistic power generalized aggregation operators

With respect to multiple attribute group decision making (MADM) problems in which attribute values take the form of intuitionistic linguistic numbers, some new group decision making methods are developed. Firstly, some operational laws, expected value, score function and accuracy function of intuitionistic linguistic numbers are introduced. Then, an intuitionistic linguistic power generalized weighted average (ILPGWA) operator and an intuitionistic linguistic power generalized ordered weighted average (ILPGOWA) operator are developed. Furthermore, some desirable properties of the ILPGWA and ILPGOWA operators, such as commutativity, idempotency and monotonicity, etc. are studied. At the same time, some special cases of the generalized parameters in these operators are analyzed. Based on the ILPGWA and ILPGOWA operators, two approaches to multiple attribute group decision making with intuitionistic linguistic information are proposed. Finally, an illustrative example is given to verify the developed approaches and to demonstrate their practicality and effectiveness.     

快递包装混合回收闭环供应链决策与协调

目的 优化协调快递包装回收闭环供应链参与者的利益，促使提高废旧包装物回收率。方法 运用博弈论方法，构建由快递包装生产商、快递公司、互联网回收平台和消费者组成的闭环供应链模型，计算和比较在分散决策和集中决策时的利润，引入收益共享契约进行协调。结果 集中决策显著优于分散决策;协调后参与者的利润比协调前的有所提高，利润提高的幅度取决于协调比例大小，数值算例验证了该结果。结论 收益共享契约协调机制能够提高供应链系统利润，激发参与者积极回收快递包装，减轻对环境的污染，实现企业、消费者和社会共赢。建议政府积极推广“互联网+”的混合回收。     

The methodology of Dynamic Uncertain Causality Graph for intelligent diagnosis of vertigo

Vertigo is a common complaint with many potential causes involving otology, neurology and general medicine, and it is fairly difficult to distinguish the vertiginous disorders from each other accurately even for experienced physicians. Based on comprehensive investigations to relevant characteristics of vertigo, we propose a diagnostic modeling and reasoning methodology using Dynamic Uncertain Causality Graph. The symptoms, signs, findings of examinations, medical histories, etiology and pathogenesis, and so on, are incorporated in the diagnostic model. A modularized modeling scheme is presented to reduce the difficulty in model construction, providing multiple perspectives and arbitrary granularity for disease causality representations. We resort to the “chaining” inference algorithm and weighted logic operation mechanism, which guarantee the exactness and efficiency of diagnostic reasoning under situations of incomplete and uncertain information. Moreover, the causal insights into underlying interactions among diseases and symptoms intuitively demonstrate the reasoning process in a graphical manner. These solutions make the conclusions and advices more explicable and convincing, further increasing the objectivity of clinical decision-making. Verification experiments and empirical evaluations are performed with clinical vertigo cases. The results reveal that, even with incomplete observations, this methodology achieves encouraging diagnostic accuracy and effectiveness. This study provides a promising assistance tool for physicians in diagnosis of vertigo.     

重大基础设施工程决策方案的功能设计

结合现有理论与我国工程实践经验,界定重大基础设施工程决策方案功能构成内涵;从系统科学的视角,依据决策问题的基本属性,剖析工程决策方案构成性功能、生成性功能及涌现性功能,提炼以决策问题为导向的决策方案功能基本框架;并以港珠澳大桥保护白海豚为例,分析决策方案的功能设计过程。     

物流系统库存决策分析

库存决策对降低整个物流系统成本有重要意义,对一些主要库存管理法和库存控制模型进行分析,对库存管理决策过程进行构建很有必要.     

浅谈新经济时期企业经营者的决策能力

经营决策是企业成功的基础,而经营者的决策能力如何在很大程度上决定企业的命运。本文阐述了经营者决策能力的几个要素。