Uncertainty,belief, and probability1

We introduce a new probabilistic approach to dealing with uncertainty, based on the observation that probability theory does not require that every event be assigned a probability. For a nonmeasurable event (one to which we do not assign a probability), we can talk about only the inner measure and outer measure of the event. In addition to removing the requirement that every event be assigned a probability, our approach circumvents other criticisms of probability-based approaches to uncertainty. For example, the measure of belief in an event turns out to be represented by an interval (defined by the inner and outer measures), rather than by a single number. Further, this approach allows us to assign a belief (inner measure) to an event E without committing to a belief about its negation -E (since the inner measure of an event plus the inner measure of its negation is not necessarily one). Interestingly enough, inner measures induced by probability measures turn out to correspond in a precise sense to Dempster-Shafer belief functions. Hence, in addition to providing promising new conceptual tools for dealing with uncertainty, our approach shows that a key part of the important Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence is firmly rooted in classical probability theory. Cet article présente une nouvelle approche probabiliste en ce qui concerne le traitement de l'incertitude; celle-ci est basée sur l'observation que la théorie des probabilityés n'exige pas qu'une probabilityé soit assignée à chaque événement. Dans le cas d'un événement non mesurable (un événement pour lequel on n'assigne aucune probabilityé), nous ne pouvons discuter que de la mesure intérieure et de la mesure extérieure de l'évenément. En plus d'éliminer la nécessité d'assigner une probabilityéà l'événement, cette nouvelle approche apporte une réponse aux autres critiques des approches à l'incertitude basées sur des probabilityés. Par exemple, la mesure de croyance dans un événement est représentée par un intervalle (défini par la mesure intérieure et extérieure) plutǒt que par un nombre unique. De plus, cette approche nous permet d'assigner une croyance (mesure intérieure) à un événement E sans se compromettre vers une croyance à propos de sa négation -E (puisque la mesure intérieure d'un événement et la mesure intérieure de sa négation ne sont pas nécessairement une seule et unique mesure). II est intéressant de noter que les mesures intérieures qui résultent des mesures de probabilityé correspondent d'une manière précise aux fonctions de croyance de Dempster-Shafer. En plus de constituer un nouvel outil conceptuel prometteur dans le traitement de l'incertitude, cette approche démontre qu'une partie importante de la théorie de l'évidence de Dempster-Shafer est fermement ancrée dans la theorie classique des probabilityés.     

An eight‐node hybrid‐stress solid‐shell element for geometric non‐linear analysis of elastic shells

This paper presents eight‐node solid‐shell elements for geometric non‐linear analysis of elastic shells. To subdue shear, trapezoidal and thickness locking, the assumed natural strain method and an ad hoc modified generalized laminate stiffness matrix are employed. A selectively reduced integrated element is formulated with its membrane and bending shear strain components taken to be constant and equal to the ones evaluated at the element centroid. With the generalized stresses arising from the modified generalized laminate stiffness matrix assumed to be independent from the ones obtained from the displacement, an extended Hellinger–Reissner functional can be derived. By choosing the assumed generalized stresses similar to the assumed stresses of a previous solid element, a hybrid‐stress solid‐shell element is formulated. Commonly employed geometric non‐linear homogeneous and laminated shell problems are attempted and our results are close to those of other state‐of‐the‐art elements. Moreover, the hybrid‐stress element converges more readily than the selectively reduced integrated element in all benchmark problems. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Fe73.5Cu1Nb3Si13.5B9非晶合金的晶化动力学

用ＤＴＡ结合ＸＲＤ了Ｆｅ７３．５Ｃｕ１Ｎｂ３Ｓｉ１３．５Ｂ９晶合金的晶化动力学。表明，该事金在５００℃时析出α－Ｆｅ（Ｓｉ）相。晶化初期激活能最小为２４２ｋＪ／ｍｏｌ，它随晶化量的增加，在ＸＣ为０．４－０．８时，呈极大值为５２０ｋＪ／ｍｏｌ。在６２４℃时析出Ｆｅ２Ｂ相。     

Material state remapping in computational solid mechanics

A computational procedure for remapping material state information from one finite element mesh to another is described. The procedure is useful in connection with evolving meshes for inelastic problems, as for example occur in the context of fracture simulation and adaptive mesh refinement. The proposed method is based on weak enforcement of equality between corresponding fields on the two meshes, where piecewise‐constant fields on both meshes are generalized from the quadrature‐point values. The essential algorithmic problem is that of calculating the volume partition of an arbitrary convex region with respect to a covering set of disjoint convex regions. Instead of geometrically resolving the associated intersections, the problem is herein approximated by a constrained optimization problem, which may be readily and efficiently solved computationally. This formulation is a main contribution of the paper. Computational examples are given that illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed procedure. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Boundary knot method for 2D and 3D Helmholtz and convection–diffusion problems under complicated geometry

The boundary knot method (BKM) of very recent origin is an inherently meshless, integration‐free, boundary‐type, radial basis function collocation technique for the numerical discretization of general partial differential equation systems. Unlike the method of fundamental solutions, the use of non‐singular general solution in the BKM avoids the unnecessary requirement of constructing a controversial artificial boundary outside the physical domain. The purpose of this paper is to extend the BKM to solve 2D Helmholtz and convection–diffusion problems under rather complicated irregular geometry. The method is also first applied to 3D problems. Numerical experiments validate that the BKM can produce highly accurate solutions using a relatively small number of knots. For inhomogeneous cases, some inner knots are found necessary to guarantee accuracy and stability. The stability and convergence of the BKM are numerically illustrated and the completeness issue is also discussed. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

恒运电厂5号机抽汽供热改造

介绍半高压单缸凝汽式汽轮机改造为抽汽拱热式组的设计思路及施工改造过程，对改造中出现的新问题进行了分析并提出解决办法，改造后，机组抽气直接供给热网，社会效益和经济效益明显。     

二烷基硫代磷酸铵的捕收性能

本文研究了二烷基硫代磷酸铵（ＲＯ）２ＰＳＯＮＨ４（Ｒ＝乙基、丁基、己基、烯丙烯）系列捕收剂对非硫化矿孔雀石、锡石、赤铁矿、白铅矿、方解石和菱锌矿的浮选性能，并就药剂结构与性能关系进行了分析讨论．     

转子叶片在非均匀来流条件下的流体激振特性

该文通过研究得出非均匀来流对转子叶片流体激振的三个重要特征 :非均匀来流相对于转子叶片的非定常流中主频分量是产生叶片动应力的决定因素 ;非均匀来流的非均匀度 (相当于非定常流的波幅 )大小和叶片流体激振的动应力大小成正比 ;转子叶片流体的定常压力水平与叶片动应力的水平密切相关。图 4表 2     

Non-Steady Equilibrium during Pro-Eutectoid Ferrite Formation in Fe-0.2C Alloy

Ｔｈｅｐｒｅｃｉｐｉｔａｔｉｏｎｏｆｐｒｏ ｅｕｔｅｃｔｏｉｄｆｅｒｒｉｔｅｆｒｏｍａｕｓｔｅｎｉｔｅｉｓｃｏｎｔｒｏｌｌｅｄｂｙｄｉｆｆｕｓｉｏｎｉｎＦｅ Ｃａｌｌｏｙｓ .Ｗｉｔｈｔｈｅａｓｓｕｍｐｔｉｏｎｔｈａｔｔｈｅｍｉｇｒａｔｉｎｇｉｎｔｅｒｆａｃｅｉｓａｌｗａｙｓｉｎｌｏｃａｌｅｑｕｉｌｉｂｒｉｕｍ ,ｅａｒｌｙｉｎ 194 9,ＺｅｎｅｒＣ[1] ｅｘｐｌａｉｎｅｄｔｈｅｄｉｆｆｕｓｉｏｎａｌｇｒｏｗｔｈｏｆｐｒｏ ｅｕｔｅｃ ｔｏｉｄｆｅｒｒｉｔｅｂｙｕｓｉｎｇｔｈｅＦｉｃｋ’ｓｌａｗ .Ｓｉｎｃｅ…