缺省理论的简化

缺省理论△=(D,W)中的缺省规则集D,是该理论的不确定因素.如果能去掉一些缺省规则而又不影响该理论的延伸,则就在一定程度上简化了该理论.本文证明了关于规范缺省理论的延伸的若干性质,利用这些性质,我们可以把某些规范缺省理论在一定条件下得以化简,有的甚至可以把它们化为一阶逻辑理论.     

Disorder effects on the strain response of model polymer networks

Molecular dynamics simulations are used to investigate polymer networks made by either end-linking or randomly crosslinking a melt of linear precursor chains. The resulting network structures are very different, since end-linking leads to nearly ideal monodisperse networks, while random crosslinking leads to polydisperse networks, characterized by an exponential strand length distribution. Networks with average strand length 20 and 100 were generated. These networks were used to study the effects of disorder in the network connectivity on observables averaged either over the entire network or selected sub-structures. Heterogeneities in the randomly crosslinked networks cause significant differences in the localization of monomers, however, neither the localization of crosslinks nor the microscopic strain response are significantly affected. Compared to end-linked networks, randomly crosslinked networks have a slightly increased tube diameter, and as a result a slightly decreased shear modulus, but otherwise identical stress-strain behavior. For the investigated systems, we conclude that the microscopic strain response, tube diameter, and stress-strain relation are all insensitive to the heterogeneities due to the linking process by which the network were made.     

The stress intensity factors for a short crack partially penetrating an inclusion of arbitrary shape

Some approximate solutions for predicting the stress intensity factor of a short crack penetrating an inclusion of arbitrary shape have been developed under mode I and mode II loading conditions. The derivation of the fundamental formula is based on the transformation toughening theory. The transformation strains in the inclusion are induced by the crack-tip field and remotely applied stresses, and approximately evaluated by the Eshelby equivalent inclusion theory. As validated by detailed finite element (FE) analyses, the developed solutions have good accuracy for different inclusion shape and for a wide range of modulus ratio between inclusion and matrix material.     

Robustness of classification rules that incorporate additional information

The discrimination problem for two normal populations with the same covariance matrix when additional information on the population is available is considered. A study of the robustness properties against training sample contamination of classification rules that incorporate this additional information is performed. These rules have received recently attention where their total misclassification probability (TMP) is proved to be lower than Fisher's linear discriminant rule. The results of a simulation study on the TMP which compares the behaviour of the new rules against Fisher's rule and some of its robustified versions under different types of contamination are presented. These results show that the rules that incorporate the additional information not only have lower TMP, but they also prevent against some types of contamination. In order to achieve prevention from all types of contamination a robustifed version of these rules is recommended.     

Conditionals and conditional probability.

The authors report 3 experiments in which participants were invited to judge the probability of statements of the form if p then q given frequency information about the cases pq, p?q, ?pq, and ?p?q (where ? = not). Three hypotheses were compared: (a) that people equate the probability with that of the material conditional, 1 - P(p?q); (b) that people assign the conditional probability, P(q/p); and (c) that people assign the conjunctive probability P(pq). The experimental evidence allowed rejection of the 1st hypothesis but provided some support for the 2nd and 3rd hypotheses. Individual difference analyses showed that half of the participants used conditional probability and that most of the remaining participants used conjunctive probability as the basis of their judgments. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Measuring consistency in TTL-based caches

We propose a general modeling framework to evaluate the performance of cache consistency algorithms. In addition to the usual hit rate, we introduce the hit^* rate as a consistency measure, which captures the fraction of non-stale downloads from the cache. We apply these ideas to the analysis of the fixed TTL consistency algorithm in the presence of network delays. The hit and hit^* rates are evaluated when requests and updates are modeled by renewal processes. Classical results on the renewal function lead to various bounds.     

基于随机分析和概率预测的固定式海洋平台结构风险评估研究

对极端海况进行了环境荷载的联合概率分析。引入了整体不确定性和敏感性分析理论,利用非正态过程、具有不同相关性的多变量随机模拟技术,求解结构的失效概率。提出结构失效分析的新方法,并利用DNV提供的历史数据,对结构失效的后果做了适当分析。以埕北12-C井组平台为实例,对平台甲板高程(Air Gap)失效分析进行了实例计算。结果表明,使用多维联合极值分布理论及相应的求解方法,是离岸工程结构物风险评估的重要手段。     

Sensitivity analysis in conjunction with evidence theory representations of epistemic uncertainty

Three applications of sampling-based sensitivity analysis in conjunction with evidence theory representations for epistemic uncertainty in model inputs are described: (i) an initial exploratory analysis to assess model behavior and provide insights for additional analysis; (ii) a stepwise analysis showing the incremental effects of uncertain variables on complementary cumulative belief functions and complementary cumulative plausibility functions; and (iii) a summary analysis showing a spectrum of variance-based sensitivity analysis results that derive from probability spaces that are consistent with the evidence space under consideration.     

一种考虑分布电容的模糊故障测距算法

提出了一种考虑分布电容的故障测距新算法。该算法基于微分方程描述的线路数学模型，利用单端信息对高压输电线路进行故障测距，保留了解微分方程算法的简单可靠、现实可行、不必考虑衰减直流分量和谐波及电网频率波动影响的特点，同时考虑过渡电阻和分布电容的影响，克服了传统解微分方程法中在经高阻接地故障时测距误差过大和忽略分布电容引起的故障定位不准确的缺点。为了检验算法的精度，进行了大量的动模实验。结果表明，算法原理正确并具有较高的测距精度。     

大坝洪水漫顶风险评估

洪水漫顶是导致大坝溃坝的主要原因之一,大坝洪水漫顶风险评估是大坝风险评估的重要组成部分。为此,简要介绍了大坝洪水漫顶的风险模型,并通过实例详细地讨论了模型中各有关参数的不确定性处理方法,探讨了入库洪水的不确定性对洪水漫顶风险率的影响以及按规范设计的大坝的防洪能力问题。